Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
NASDAQ: BIDU · Real-Time Price · USD
$141
+1.17 (+0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BIDU rated Buy
BIDU is rated Buy at $137.68 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $159.47, implying +15.83% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$159 / share
$83.5 – $236
Upside to FV
+15.8%
from $141
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Compelling value play on the dominant player in China's AI infrastructure evolution.
Biggest risk
Structural Search Erosion
Structural Search Erosion: Short-video and social commerce platforms accelerate traffic diversion, causing permanent advertising revenue decline and margin compression.
Recommended action
Buy
BIDU is rated Buy at $137.68 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $159.47, implying +15.83% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $46.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 18.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 666.7M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.69 | |
| Shares out | 340.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 83.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 15.0x | |
| Volume | 5,215,556 | |
| Beta | 0.52 | |
| Price target | $154 | +9.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 18.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 666.7M
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.69
- P/E (trailing)
- 83.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.0x
- Market cap
- $46.8B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $123.68B | $134.60B | $133.13B | $129.08B | +1.4% |
| Gross profit | $59.74B | $69.57B | $67.02B | $56.64B | -1.8% |
| Operating income | $15.91B | $21.86B | $21.27B | $10.37B | -13.3% |
| Net income | $7.56B | $20.32B | $23.76B | $5.59B | -9.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $19.84 | $55.12 | $65.92 | $11.76 | -16.0% |
| EBITDA | $33.11B | $49.90B | $51.97B | $30.85B | -2.3% |
| R&D | $23.32B | $24.19B | $22.13B | $20.43B | -4.3% |
| SG&A | $20.51B | $23.52B | $23.62B | $25.84B | +8.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $83.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $159
- Fair value (high)
- $236
- Current price
- $141
- Upside to mid
- +15.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $182 | 60% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $32.26 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $31.63 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $316 | 8% |
| FCFF DCF | $242 | 7% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $14.65 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$154
+9.5%
In the news
Latest news · BIDU
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $46.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 83.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.0x
- P/S
- 2.6x
- P/B
- 1.3x
- PEG
- 7.80
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.9%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- ROE
- 1.9%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- ROIC
- 3.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.34
- Current ratio
- 1.76
- Quick ratio
- 1.53
Trading
- Beta
- 0.52
- Volume
- 5,215,556
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +15.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$235.67
+71.2% from spot
Baidu successfully secures its position as China's premier AI-native infrastructure provider, driving significant margin expansion and multiple re-rating.
- Double-digit revenue growth powered by AI Cloud leadership.
- Apollo Go achieves breakeven in major urban centers.
- Valuation re-rating toward 22x forward earnings.
Base60%
Price target
$159.47
+15.8% from spot
The core search business remains a stable cash cow, financing a steady transition to cloud and AI services while the valuation gap gradually closes.
- Low-single digit search growth offsets market share erosion.
- AI Cloud becomes a consistent contributor to operating income.
- Valuation anchored to a balanced 20x terminal multiple.
Bear20%
Price target
$83.51
-39.3% from spot
Competitive and regulatory pressures erode the legacy core faster than new ventures can scale, leading to a permanent value-trap scenario.
- Structural decline in search advertising revenue.
- Regulatory caps on high-margin AI monetization models.
- Valuation remains anchored to trailing TTM impaired earnings.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $159.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $182 | +29.2% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $32.3 | -77.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $31.6 | -77.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 8% | $316 | +123.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 7% | $242 | +71.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $14.7 | -89.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $159 | +15.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($159.47). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $188 | $206 | $229 | $256 | $279 |
| 8.6% | $159 | $173 | $188 | $206 | $229 |
| 9.6% | $139 | $148 | $159 | $173 | $188 |
| 10.6% | $122 | $130 | $139 | $148 | $159 |
| 11.6% | $110 | $116 | $122 | $130 | $139 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management8.1
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability3.5
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality1.5
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.2/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Prudent 2-3% cap given the severity of jurisdictional and regulatory risks despite high fair-value upside.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$141
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Systematically reduce exposure as price approaches the $182 forward anchor or if search DAU breaks structural support.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE1.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC3.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All BIDU indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
253
Groups with data
11
Currency
CNY
Showing 253 of 253 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BIDU
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BIDU report
What is the current BIDU stock rating?
Baidu, Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BIDU analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BIDU/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BIDU?
The latest report frames BIDU around $84 to $236. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BIDU page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyBIDU · Fair value $159+15.8% · Confidence 82/100