Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NASDAQ: CEG · Real-Time Price · USD
$304
-7.66 (-2.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CEG rated Reduce
Reduce. Shares price in speculative tech-infrastructure contracts ahead of execution, exposing investors to severe multiple contraction risk.
Fair value (mid)
$198 / share
$151 – $252
Upside to FV
-24.2%
from $304
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: The enterprise effectively transforms into a tech-infrastructure asset, securing decades of premium baseload pricing that completely bypasses the wholesale merchant grid constraints.
Biggest risk
PPA Execution Failure
PPA Execution Failure: Hyperscalers balk at premium nuclear capacity pricing, forcing the company to sell uncontracted power into oversupplied wholesale merchant markets.
Recommended action
Reduce
Reduce. While the business holds a structurally privileged asset base in a capacity-constrained grid, the $260 market price demands flawless execution of an AI premium narrative that our stringent models refuse to capitalize prematurely.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $94.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 25.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $7.40 | |
| Shares out | 362.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 41.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.2x | |
| Dividend | $1.71 (0.56%) | |
| Volume | 2,948,644 | |
| Beta | 1.15 | |
| Price target | $381 | +25.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 25.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $7.40
- P/E (trailing)
- 41.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.2x
- Market cap
- $94.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $19.65B | $24.44B | $24.92B | $23.57B | $25.53B | +6.8% |
| Gross profit | $2.93B | $2.14B | $3.23B | $5.99B | $4.69B | +12.5% |
| Operating income | $362.0M | $-408.0M | $2.39B | $4.85B | $4.20B | +84.5% |
| Net income | $-205.0M | $-160.0M | $1.62B | $3.75B | $2.32B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.63 | $-0.49 | $5.01 | $11.89 | $7.40 | — |
| EBITDA | $4.44B | $1.56B | $4.76B | $7.03B | $5.96B | +7.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $0 | $-110.0M | $-54.0M | — | — | — |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $151
- Fair value (mid)
- $198
- Fair value (high)
- $252
- Current price
- $304
- Upside to mid
- -24.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $260 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $221 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $171 | 20% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $157 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $119 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $49.22 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$381
+25.3%
In the news
Latest news · CEG
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $94.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 41.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.2x
- P/S
- 4.3x
- P/B
- 6.5x
- PEG
- 1.33
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.4%
- Operating margin
- 11.9%
- ROE
- 16.4%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- ROIC
- 8.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.64
- Current ratio
- 1.53
- Quick ratio
- 1.09
Trading
- Beta
- 1.15
- Volume
- 2,948,644
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -23.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$251.59
-3.5% from spot
The enterprise effectively transforms into a tech-infrastructure asset, securing decades of premium baseload pricing that completely bypasses the wholesale merchant grid constraints.
- Sustained 20x+ terminal multiple via tech rerating.
- Data center PPAs execute at high margins.
- Operating margins expand beyond 25% structurally.
Base60%
Price target
$197.53
-24.2% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Revenue growth fades to 1.87% post-Year 1.
- Terminal multiple capped strictly at 19x.
- Operating margin normalizes at 21.8%.
Bear20%
Price target
$151.30
-42.0% from spot
Hyperscalers abandon nuclear for cheaper alternatives. High capex requirements and a return to standard independent power producer multiples severely punish the current premium valuation.
- Hyperscalers secure alternative baseload power.
- Wholesale power margins compress under oversupply.
- Capex structurally exceeds D&A permanently.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $198.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $260 | -14.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $221 | -27.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $171 | -43.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $157 | -48.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $119 | -60.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $49.2 | -83.8% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $198 | -24.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($197.53). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $230 | $251 | $276 | $307 | $345 |
| 9.0% | $198 | $213 | $230 | $251 | $276 |
| 10.0% | $173 | $184 | $198 | $213 | $230 |
| 11.0% | $154 | $163 | $173 | $184 | $198 |
| 12.0% | $138 | $146 | $154 | $163 | $173 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.8/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 77/100
Target weight
Avoid core allocations. The 24.2% downside gap to our fair value suggests the market has fully front-run all fundamental execution upside.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$304
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure aggressively above $260. The extreme spread against private calibration targets indicates the AI data center narrative is fully priced.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CEG indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
246
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 246 of 246 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CEG
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CEG report
What is the current CEG stock rating?
Constellation Energy Corporation is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CEG analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CEG/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CEG?
The latest report frames CEG around $151 to $252. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CEG page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceCEG · Fair value $198-24.2% · Confidence 77/100