Is Constellation Energy Corporation overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, CEG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 198 (range USD 151–USD 252), implying roughly 24.2% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is CEG's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives CEG a composite fair-value range of USD 151–USD 252, with a midpoint of USD 198. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Constellation Energy Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy CEG now?

Our latest published rating for CEG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce with a confidence score of 77/100. Constellation Energy Corporation looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 261 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 198. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for CEG?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-20 flags for Constellation Energy Corporation are: PPA Execution Failure; Regulatory Support Reversal; Capex Escalation.

What is CEG's rating?

Our latest published rating for CEG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce, with a confidence score of 77/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 151–USD 252) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 261).

What archetype is CEG?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, Constellation Energy Corporation is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CEG.

CEG sensitivity analysis & stress tests

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-20; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Constellation Energy operates the premier carbon-free nuclear fleet, positioning it for data center demand. However, current market pricing aggressively discounts an AI infrastructure premium that outpaces our disciplined utility reversion models. Fair value range: low $151, high $252, with mid-point at $198.

FAQ

CEG — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, CEG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 198 (range USD 151–USD 252), implying roughly 24.2% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Operating margins falling below 20% on a trailing basis.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to announce definitive data center PPAs by year-end.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to depreciation ratio sustaining above 2.0x.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$19.65B	$24.44B+24.4%	$24.92B+2.0%	$23.57B-5.4%	$25.53B+8.3%	+6.8%
Gross profit	$2.93B	$2.14B	$3.23B	$5.99B	$4.69B	+12.5%
Operating income	$362.0M	$-408.0M	$2.39B	$4.85B	$4.20B	+84.5%
Net income	$-205.0M	$-160.0M	$1.62B	$3.75B+131.5%	$2.32B-38.1%	—
EPS (diluted)	$-0.63	$-0.49	$5.01	$11.89	$7.40	—
EBITDA	$4.44B	$1.56B	$4.76B	$7.03B	$5.96B	+7.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$0	$-110.0M	$-54.0M	—	—	—

CEG — frequently asked questions

CEG Constellation Energy Corporation fair value $151–$252

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of CEG also follow

§2 Bear case

PPA Execution Failure

Regulatory Support Reversal

Capex Escalation

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.