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CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range., dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.
A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin revenue streams.
Decentralized ledgers bypass traditional clearinghouses, destroying CME's core wide-moat monopolistic advantage over the long term.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.69B | $5.02B+7.0% | $5.58B+11.2% | $6.13B+9.9% | $6.52B+6.4% | +8.6% |
| Gross profit | $3.85B | $4.27B | $4.75B | $5.28B | $5.61B | +9.9% |
| Operating income | $2.65B | $3.02B | $3.44B | $3.93B | $4.23B | +12.4% |
| Net income | $2.64B | $2.69B+1.9% | $3.23B+20.1% | $3.53B+9.3% | $4.07B+15.3% | +11.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.29 | $7.40 | $8.86 | $9.67 | $11.16 | +11.2% |
| EBITDA | $3.93B | $4.02B | $4.67B | $5.04B | $5.83B | +10.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $151.7M | $137.4M | $144.4M | $132.7M | $150.5M | -0.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Regulatory actions enforcing strict caps on market data pricing. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Loss of market share in core agricultural or energy futures. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
