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Capital One Financial Corporation's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $122.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 8.5x |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $4.78B | $5.42B | $5.65B | $5.92B | $8.06B | +14.0% |
| Gross profit | $32.38B | $28.40B | $26.36B | $27.40B | $32.78B | +0.3% |
| Operating income | $15.81B | $9.24B | $6.05B | $5.91B | $2.28B | -38.4% |
| Net income | $12.39B | $7.36B | $4.89B | $4.75B | $2.45B | -33.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $26.94 | $17.91 | $11.95 | $11.59 | $4.03 | -37.8% |
| EBITDA | $19.29B | $12.45B | $9.27B | $9.15B | $7.54B | -20.9% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $7.42B | $8.43B | $9.30B | $9.40B | $12.47B | +13.9% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The base scenario represents the modal outcome with probability 55.0%, establishing target value of $200.80 and return of 0.3%, which reconciles directly to Fair value of $200.80 with an upside of 0.3% relative to $200.20. In this scenario, core domestic credit card loans deliver steady single-digit growth while deliberate portfolio trimming runs its course. Operating margins sustain normalized levels and credit provisions track historical norms. Disconfirmation would arise if loan growth remains stalled past the Discover integration window or if deposit funding costs rise faster than asset yields.
Under the bull scenario, with probability 20.0%, target value reaches $284.02, offering a return of 41.9% and aligning with Potential value of $284.02. This path requires accelerating domestic card originations, swift realization of network and corporate payment synergies, and operating leverage from cloud infrastructure that drives rapid earnings expansion through FY2027. Disconfirmation would occur if net interest margin compresses or if credit policy adjustments fail to reinvigorate loan balance growth by early next fiscal year.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $210 | $210 | $210 | $211 | $212 |
| 8.8% | $205 | $205 | $206 | $206 | $206 |
| 9.3% | $200 | $200 | $201 | $201 | $202 |
| 9.8% | $196 | $196 | $196 | $197 | $197 |
| 10.3% | $192 | $192 | $192 | $192 | $193 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
