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Costco Wholesale Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $397.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 40.0x |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-08-28 | 2023-09-03 | 2024-09-01 | 2025-08-31 | 2026-08-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $226.95B | $242.29B | $254.45B | $275.24B | — | +6.6% |
| Gross profit | $27.57B | $29.70B | $32.10B | $35.35B | — | +8.6% |
| Operating income | $7.79B | $8.11B | $9.29B | $10.38B | — | +10.0% |
| Net income | $5.84B | $6.29B | $7.37B | $8.10B | — | +11.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.14 | $14.16 | $16.56 | $18.21 | $14.36 | +2.2% |
| EBITDA | $9.90B | $10.72B | $12.15B | $13.40B | — | +10.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $19.78B | $21.59B | $22.81B | $24.97B | — | +8.1% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Under the base outcome, representing 60.0% probability, the stock converges toward $439.14, generating an implied return of -51.0% from $895.31. This path assumes steady mid-single-digit revenue growth and gradual operating margin normalization as membership fee gains offset freight inflation. Disconfirmation would occur if North American renewal rates drop below historical standards or if warehouse traffic turns negative over two consecutive quarters.
In the bull outcome, assigned a 20.0% probability, the shares reach Potential value at $571.07, offering an implied return of -36.2% relative to $895.31. This scenario requires international warehouse rollouts to accelerate with operating margins exceeding domestic units, rapid executive tier penetration in Asian markets, and significant freight productivity from automated depots. This path would be disconfirmed if international opening schedules stall or if gross margins continue to face compression from staple price reductions.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $523 | $557 | $603 | $670 | $773 |
| 7.5% | $457 | $476 | $501 | $533 | $576 |
| 8.5% | $412 | $424 | $439 | $457 | $480 |
| 9.5% | $380 | $388 | $398 | $409 | $423 |
| 10.5% | $355 | $361 | $368 | $375 | $384 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
