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Disney is a premier entertainment compounder successfully navigating the transition from linear television to streaming, heavily anchored by its high-margin Parks & Experiences segment. While near-term growth is tempered by linear declines, its unmatched, multi-generational IP portfolio secures a durable long-term moat. Fair value range: low $91.8, high $137, with mid-point at $114.
Stock analysis

DIS The Walt Disney Company fair value $114–$137

DIS
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-08Next update: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Communication Services
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Last price
$108.66
▲ +5.45 (+5.02%)
Fair value
$114
$114–$137
Rating
Hold
confidence 88/100
Upside
+5.0%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$96.99
buy below · 15%
Market Cap
$188.7B
P/E fwd 14.6

§1 Executive summary

  • Mature compounder transitioning from linear TV to streaming.
  • Unmatched IP and high-margin Parks drive long-term value.
  • Near-term headwinds from linear decay and elevated capex.
  • Fair value of $114.11 implies limited upside from current levels.
Fair value
$114
Margin of safety
+4.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$108.66Price
FV $114.11
High $136.53

Disney is a premier entertainment compounder successfully navigating the transition from linear television to streaming, heavily anchored by its high-margin Parks & Experiences segment. While near-term growth is tempered by linear declines, its unmatched, multi-generational IP portfolio secures a durable long-term moatMoatA durable structural advantage that protects long-term returns on capital from competition. Sources include network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale..

  • Intangible Assets (Multi-generational IP)
    Intangible Assets (Multi-generational IP)
  • Network Effect (Ecosystem monetization)
    Network Effect (Ecosystem monetization)
  • Cycle upside
    Streaming rationalization driving industry-wide price increases and margin expansion.

§2 Bear case

A severe consumer recession combined with accelerated linear cord-cutting tests dividend sustainability and forces drastic capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). rationalization across the Parks segment.

Ways this thesis can break

Linear Collapse

20%· Medium

Cord-cutting accelerates significantly faster than DTC profit replacement, permanently destroying enterprise margin.

FV impact
-$22
Trigger
1-2 Years

Theme Park Recession

15%· Low

Macroeconomic weakness materially dents park attendance and per-capita spending, halting FCF generation.

FV impact
-$25
Trigger
1-3 Years

Streaming Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Content acquisition costs escalate due to competition, preventing the DTC segment from reaching target double-digit margins.

FV impact
-$15
Trigger
2-4 Years
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Parks operating margin compressing below 20% for consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
DTC subscriber churn increasing significantly.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Linear affiliate fee revenue dropping >15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to D&A remaining above 1.5x longer than projected.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consistent box office underperformance on tentpole franchises.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Revenue$82.72B$88.90B$91.36B$94.43B+4.5%
Gross profit$28.32B$29.70B$32.66B$35.66B+8.0%
Operating income$6.77B$8.99B$11.91B$13.83B+26.9%
Net income$3.15B$2.35B$4.97B$12.40B+58.0%
EPS (diluted)$1.72$1.29$2.72$6.85+58.5%
EBITDA$12.00B$12.11B$14.63B$19.14B+16.9%
R&D—————
SG&A$16.39B$15.34B$15.76B$16.50B+0.2%

Quality scores

Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
0–9 quality composite
Altman Z-score
2.44
Bankruptcy risk (>3 safe)
Beneish M-score
-2.62
Earnings manipulation risk
OCF / Net income
1.46×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Pass
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
7.0%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

DIS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DIS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $109 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $114 (range $91.8–$137), which implies roughly 5.0% upside to the midpoint.

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