With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
EXAS trades against a final fair-value range of $72.48-$165.46, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
If revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. unexpectedly drops to the 6.5% market-implied floor and EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. compresses from 8.0x to sector averages, the valuation falls rapidly toward the $72.48 bear caseBear caseThe worst-realistic outcome — what happens if our top three risks materialize together. Used to set the floor of our fair-value range and inform position sizing..
Emergence of competitive, highly accurate blood-based cancer screening tests erodes Cologuard volume.
SG&A and R&D remain stubbornly high, permanently delaying the path to GAAP profitability and compressing EV/Revenue multiples.
Regulatory and commercial payer pricing pressures significantly reduce per-test margins.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.08B | $2.50B+20.2% | $2.76B+10.4% | $3.25B+17.8% | +15.9% |
| Gross profit | $1.42B | $1.76B | $1.92B | $2.26B | +16.7% |
| Operating income | $-577.5M | $-214.4M | $-179.2M | $-199.1M | — |
| Net income | $-623.5M | $-204.1M | $-1.03B | $-207.9M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-3.54 | $-1.13 | $-5.59 | $-1.10 | — |
| EBITDA | $-421.1M | $29.3M | $-789.3M | $52.4M | — |
| R&D | $394.2M | $426.9M | $431.2M | $523.0M | +9.9% |
| SG&A | $1.59B | $1.63B | $1.68B | $1.94B | +6.8% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| FDA approval of a highly sensitive blood-based competitive diagnostic. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Reversal to negative structural operating cash flow. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
