Is Gilead Sciences Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, GILD trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 134 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 132 (range USD 103–USD 163), implying roughly 1.2% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is GILD's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives GILD a composite fair-value range of USD 103–USD 163, with a midpoint of USD 132. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Gilead Sciences Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy GILD now?

Our latest published rating for GILD, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Hold with a confidence score of 88/100. Gilead Sciences Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD 134 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 132. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for GILD?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-08 flags for Gilead Sciences Inc. are: Biktarvy LOE Collapse; Oncology Pipeline Failure; Aggressive Pricing Reform.

What is GILD's rating?

Our latest published rating for GILD, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Hold, with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 103–USD 163) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 134).

What archetype is GILD?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-08, Gilead Sciences Inc. is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for GILD.

What are GILD's bull, base, and bear cases?

Each scenario for Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

How are GILD's probability weights set?

Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.

What is GILD's expected return?

Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.

How do GILD's scenarios compare to private calibration references?

When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.

GILD scenarios: bull, base, bear with probability weights

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-08; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Gilead Sciences is a highly cash-generative, mature biopharma business anchored by its dominant HIV franchise. While top-line growth is constrained by patent maturities and competition, immense free cash flow generation easily supports a robust dividend and strategic oncology acquisitions. Fair value range: low $103, high $163, with mid-point at $132.

SCENARIOS FAQ

GILD scenarios questions

Each scenario for Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

GILD — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, GILD trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 134 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 132 (range USD 103–USD 163), implying roughly 1.2% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Decelerating revenue growth in the core HIV franchise.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Clinical trial setbacks in the oncology pipeline.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Contraction of operating margins below historical averages.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$27.31B	$27.28B-0.1%	$27.12B-0.6%	$28.75B+6.0%	$29.44B+2.4%	+1.9%
Gross profit	$20.70B	$21.62B	$20.62B	$22.50B	$23.21B	+2.9%
Operating income	$10.86B	$10.97B	$8.84B	$10.60B	$11.70B	+1.9%
Net income	$6.23B	$4.59B-26.3%	$5.67B+23.5%	$480.0M-91.5%	$8.51B+1672.9%	+8.1%
EPS (diluted)	$4.93	$3.64	$4.50	$0.38	$6.78	+8.3%
EBITDA	$11.33B	$8.85B	$10.50B	$4.43B	$13.58B	+4.6%
R&D	$4.60B	$4.98B	$5.72B	$5.91B	$5.80B	+6.0%
SG&A	$5.25B	$5.67B	$6.06B	$6.00B	$5.71B	+2.1%

GILD scenarios questions

GILD — frequently asked questions

GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. fair value $103–$163

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of GILD also follow

§2 Bear case

Biktarvy LOE Collapse

Oncology Pipeline Failure

Aggressive Pricing Reform

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.