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Southwest Airlines Co.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $20.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 31.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.04 | |
| Shares out | 489.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 21.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 8.3x | |
| Dividend | $0.72 (1.66%) | |
| Volume | 4,850,114 | |
| Beta | 1.15 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $15.79B | $23.81B | $26.09B | $27.48B | $28.06B | +15.5% |
| Gross profit | $4.12B | $4.75B | $4.22B | $4.46B | $4.90B | +4.4% |
| Operating income | $1.72B | $1.02B | $224.0M | $321.0M | $428.0M | -29.4% |
| Net income | $977.0M | $539.0M | $465.0M | $465.0M | $441.0M | -18.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.61 | $0.87 | $0.76 | $0.76 | $0.79 | -16.3% |
| EBITDA | $3.03B | $2.38B | $2.39B | $2.47B | $2.24B | -7.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.20B | $3.51B | $3.73B | $14.13B | $14.19B | +59.3% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Under the base case, with an assigned probability of 55.0%, Southwest executes its planned commercial overhaul, sustaining unit revenue gains and achieving mid-cycle operating margins near target levels. The model targets a valuation of $39.52, delivering an implied return of -5.1% relative to $41.66 (as of 2026-10-09). Disconfirmation would occur if third quarter unit revenues decelerate rapidly or if non-fuel operating expense growth persistently exceeds management projections, which would become apparent across upcoming fiscal year results.
Under the bull case, with an assigned probability of 20.0%, commercial monetization exceeds internal expectations as premium seating sell-up accelerates, co-branded credit card growth maintains double-digit momentum, and constrained industry seat capacity supports elevated passenger yields. This trajectory drives the valuation toward $60.50, representing an implied return of 45.2% against $41.66 (as of 2026-10-09) and aligning with Potential value of $60.50. Disconfirmation would occur if competitive fare discounting re-emerges or if loyalty acquisition velocity weakens.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $40.8 | $42.0 | $43.3 | $44.8 | $46.6 |
| 9.5% | $39.1 | $40.2 | $41.3 | $42.6 | $44.1 |
| 10.0% | $37.6 | $38.5 | $39.5 | $40.7 | $41.9 |
| 10.5% | $36.3 | $37.1 | $37.9 | $38.9 | $40.0 |
| 11.0% | $35.0 | $35.7 | $36.5 | $37.3 | $38.3 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
