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MAR trades against a final fair-value range of $151.90-$303.69, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A severe macroeconomic contraction compresses RevPAR, while sustained high interest rates raise the cost of servicing $17B in debt, forcing a halt to share buybacks and destroying EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable. momentum.
Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
Market pivots from pricing MAR as a perpetual compounder to a cyclical lodging stock, instantly closing the gap to the intrinsic $227.84 fair value.
Permanent downward shift in enterprise travel budgets reduces high-margin group bookings, structurally compressing system-wide RevPAR.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.77B | $23.71B+14.2% | $25.10B+5.9% | $26.19B+4.3% | +8.0% |
| Gross profit | $4.56B | $4.98B | $4.97B | $5.22B | +4.6% |
| Operating income | $3.47B | $3.92B | $3.84B | $4.14B | +6.0% |
| Net income | $2.36B | $3.08B+30.5% | $2.38B-22.7% | $2.60B+9.2% | +3.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.24 | $10.18 | $8.33 | $9.51 | +9.5% |
| EBITDA | $3.92B | $4.38B | $4.34B | $4.80B | +7.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $891.0M | $867.0M | $945.0M | $870.0M | -0.8% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Contraction in the net global pipeline of room additions. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Erosion of Bonvoy active member engagement metrics. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
