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MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A cyclical downturn coinciding with multiple compression breaks momentum. If long-term revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. fades to 3% without extreme margin expansion, intrinsic valueIntrinsic valueThe discounted present value of all cash a business will produce over its remaining life. The theoretical anchor for fair value, computed in practice as a range across explicit assumptions. violently resets toward our $422 cross-check floor.
Hyperscaler data center spending normalizes, sharply curtailing demand for high-end power management ICs.
Intensified competition from legacy analog peers compresses operating margins below historical 32% bounds.
Macro conditions trigger a strict repricing of hyper-growth multiples, collapsing the forward P/E back to a 25x terminal assumption.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.21B | $1.79B+47.9% | $1.82B+1.7% | $2.21B+21.4% | $2.79B+26.2% | +23.3% |
| Gross profit | $685.5M | $1.05B | $1.02B | $1.22B | $1.54B | +22.4% |
| Operating income | $262.4M | $526.8M | $481.7M | $539.4M | $728.6M | +29.1% |
| Net income | $242.0M | $437.7M+80.9% | $427.4M-2.4% | $1.59B+272.0% | $621.5M-60.9% | +26.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.05 | $9.05 | $8.76 | $36.59 | $12.86 | +26.3% |
| EBITDA | $291.1M | $563.9M | $521.9M | $575.8M | $781.1M | +28.0% |
| R&D | $190.6M | $240.2M | $263.6M | $324.7M | $382.3M | +19.0% |
| SG&A | $232.4M | $281.6M | $275.7M | $356.8M | $428.8M | +16.5% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Operating margins retreating below 30% | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Slowing EV penetration rates reducing automotive semiconductor TAM | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
