ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)
NYSE: NOW · Real-Time Price · USD
$91.2
-2.41 (-2.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NOW rated Hold
NOW is rated Hold at $101.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $105.53, implying +3.63% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$106 / share
$61.8 – $149
Upside to FV
+3.6%
from $91.2
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Generative AI products drive a new wave of ARPU expansion, maintaining >20% top-line growth while operating leverage expands margins toward 30%.
Biggest risk
IT Budget Contraction
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Hold
NOW is rated Hold at $101.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $105.53, implying +3.63% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $105.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 14B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.68 | |
| Shares out | 1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 54.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 20.3x | |
| Volume | 24,699,074 | |
| Beta | 0.82 | |
| Price target | $184 | +101.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
ServiceNow, Inc.NOW
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 14B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.68
- P/E (trailing)
- 54.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.3x
- Market cap
- $105.0B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $7.25B | $8.97B | $10.98B | $13.28B | +22.4% |
| Gross profit | $5.67B | $7.05B | $8.70B | $10.30B | +22.0% |
| Operating income | $355.0M | $762.0M | $1.36B | $1.82B | +72.6% |
| Net income | $325.0M | $1.73B | $1.43B | $1.75B | +75.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.32 | $1.68 | $1.37 | $1.67 | +73.5% |
| EBITDA | $788.0M | $1.32B | $2.33B | $3.02B | +56.5% |
| R&D | $1.77B | $2.12B | $2.54B | $2.96B | +18.7% |
| SG&A | $3.55B | $4.16B | $4.79B | $5.51B | +15.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $61.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $106
- Fair value (high)
- $149
- Current price
- $91.2
- Upside to mid
- +3.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $128 | 65% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $68.16 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $53.24 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $48.06 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $70.76 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $14.62 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$184
+101.9%
In the news
Latest news · NOW
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $105.0B
- P/E (trailing)
- 54.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.3x
- P/S
- 6.7x
- P/B
- 8.0x
- PEG
- 0.83
- EV / EBITDA
- 30.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 76.6%
- Operating margin
- 14.7%
- ROE
- 16.1%
- ROA
- 5.7%
- ROIC
- 16.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.21
- Current ratio
- 0.84
- Quick ratio
- 0.69
Trading
- Beta
- 0.82
- Volume
- 24,699,074
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +3.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$148.71
+46.0% from spot
Generative AI products drive a new wave of ARPU expansion, maintaining >20% top-line growth while operating leverage expands margins toward 30%.
- Terminal Multiple: >25x
- Revenue CAGR: >20%
Base60%
Price target
$105.53
+3.6% from spot
Maintains dominant ITSM market position with 18-22% top-line growth. Margin expansion gradually offsets SBC dilution, synthesizing forward potential with trailing cash realities.
- WACC: 10.3%
- Terminal Growth: 3%
Bear20%
Price target
$61.76
-39.3% from spot
Macro IT budget optimization slows seat growth; AI monetization fails to offset core market saturation, leading to multiple compression as growth dips below 15%.
- Terminal Multiple: <15x
- Revenue CAGR: <15%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $106.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 65% | $128 | +40.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $68.2 | -25.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $53.2 | -41.6% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $48.1 | -47.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $70.8 | -22.4% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $14.6 | -84.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $106 | +3.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($105.53). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $122 | $132 | $144 | $159 | $177 |
| 9.4% | $106 | $113 | $122 | $132 | $144 |
| 10.4% | $93.0 | $98.9 | $106 | $113 | $122 |
| 11.4% | $83.2 | $87.8 | $93.0 | $98.9 | $106 |
| 12.4% | $75.2 | $79.0 | $83.2 | $87.8 | $93.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation3.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Constrain allocation due to elevated multiple risks and low absolute margin of safety.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$91.2
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim on multiple expansion exceeding 25x forward sales if unaccompanied by structural cash-flow inflection.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E20.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC16.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NOW indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
269
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 269 of 269 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NOW
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NOW report
What is the current NOW stock rating?
ServiceNow, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NOW analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NOW/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NOW?
The latest report frames NOW around $62 to $149. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NOW page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldNOW · Fair value $106+3.6% · Confidence 82/100