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NRG Energy Inc.'s published Strong Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $22.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 33.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 782M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.87 | |
| Shares out | 210.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 9.0x | |
| Dividend | $1.90 (1.97%) | |
| Volume | 1,769,877 | |
| Beta | 1.16 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $26.78B | $31.49B | $28.26B | $27.75B | $30.35B | +3.2% |
| Gross profit | $6.51B | $4.10B | $2.30B | $6.03B | $6.71B | +0.8% |
| Operating income | $3.34B | $2.02B | $384.0M | $2.42B | $1.85B | -13.8% |
| Net income | $2.19B | $1.22B | $-202.0M | $1.13B | $864.0M | -20.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.93 | $5.17 | $-1.12 | $4.99 | $4.01 | -18.1% |
| EBITDA | $4.18B | $2.80B | $1.75B | $3.50B | $3.81B | -2.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $1.29B | $1.15B | $2.09B | $2.35B | $2.60B | +19.1% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the Base scenario, NRG executes its $3.2B data center project on budget reaching commercial operation in late 2029. Operating margins normalize from 6.08% in FY2025 to 6.87% in FY2027 and 8.30% in FY2030, supported by stable East segment retail volumes ($14.06B in FY2025) and >=$1.0B in annual share repurchases. This yields the house fair value midpoint of $222.36.
In the Bull scenario, regional electricity demand from AI data centers outpaces supply across ERCOT and PJM, allowing NRG to contract its 1.2 GW new build above $90/MWh and execute serial 1.2 GW annual additions with GE Vernova. Operating margins expand toward 8.3% and forward EPS growth reaches 20% annually, driving valuation toward the upper band of $302.10.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $242 | $249 | $257 | $265 | $275 |
| 8.7% | $226 | $232 | $238 | $245 | $252 |
| 9.2% | $213 | $217 | $222 | $228 | $234 |
| 9.7% | $201 | $205 | $209 | $214 | $219 |
| 10.2% | $191 | $194 | $198 | $202 | $206 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
