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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $37.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 5.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.57 | |
| Shares out | 207.4M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 31.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.3x | |
| Dividend | $1.16 (0.67%) | |
| Volume | 4,190,149 | |
| Beta | 1.20 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.26B | $6.26B | $5.87B | $5.81B | $5.50B | +1.1% |
| Gross profit | $1.78B | $2.26B | $2.07B | $2.02B | $1.77B | -0.1% |
| Operating income | $1.39B | $1.84B | $1.64B | $1.54B | $1.36B | -0.6% |
| Net income | $1.03B | $1.38B | $1.24B | $1.19B | $1.02B | -0.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.89 | $6.09 | $5.63 | $5.48 | $4.84 | -14.1% |
| EBITDA | $1.65B | $2.12B | $1.97B | $1.90B | $1.73B | +1.1% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $223.8M | $258.9M | $203.2M | $309.7M | $234.8M | +1.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The Base case reflects a measured mid-cycle recovery. Industrial production stabilizes and retail restocking unfolds gradually, driving revenue growth of 7.60% in FY2026 and 7.86% in FY2027. Operating margins expand moderately from 24.76% in FY2025 to 25.20% in FY2026 and 26.20% in FY2027, reaching a terminal steady-state of 26.00%. Diluted EPS rises from $4.84 in FY2025 to $5.81 in FY2026 and $6.60 in FY2027. Intrinsic valuation centers at $96.57, discounted at a WACC of 9.7408% and terminal P/E of 20.0x.
In the Bull case, customer inventory restocking inflects sharply across North American industrial and retail channels throughout FY2026 and FY2027. Old Dominion leverages its north of 35% excess service center capacity and internal driver academy pipelines to onboard high-yielding freight spillover from embargoed competitors. High incremental margins of 45% to 50% expand operating margins toward 27.5%-28.0%, lifting diluted EPS past $7.00 and supporting the high-end intrinsic value of $129.73.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $100 | $102 | $104 | $106 | $108 |
| 9.2% | $95.7 | $97.1 | $98.7 | $100 | $102 |
| 9.7% | $91.5 | $92.7 | $96.6 | $95.5 | $97.0 |
| 10.2% | $87.7 | $88.8 | $89.9 | $91.2 | $92.5 |
| 10.7% | $84.3 | $85.3 | $86.3 | $87.3 | $88.4 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
