Is QUALCOMM Incorporated overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, QCOM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 219 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 136 (range USD 102–USD 171), implying roughly 37.9% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is QCOM's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives QCOM a composite fair-value range of USD 102–USD 171, with a midpoint of USD 136. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for QUALCOMM Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy QCOM now?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. QUALCOMM Incorporated looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 219 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 136. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for QCOM?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-08 flags for QUALCOMM Incorporated are: Accelerated loss of key OEM customers; QTL regulatory crackdown; Commoditization of Edge AI.

What is QCOM's rating?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell, with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 102–USD 171) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 219).

What archetype is QCOM?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-08, QUALCOMM Incorporated is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for QCOM.

What is QCOM's intrinsic value?

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

How do you calculate QCOM's fair value?

Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.

Why does QCOM use cost of equity instead of WACC?

EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.

What is owner earnings for QCOM?

Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.

QCOM intrinsic value: discounted earnings and owner earnings

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-08; report age: historical; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

QCOM is a mature quality compounder dominating mobile connectivity. While near-term hardware revenue faces cyclical headwinds and the gradual loss of Apple as a modem customer, the QTL licensing segment provides strong cash flow, and automotive/IoT expansion offers durable new growth avenues. However, current valuation is completely detached from fundamental DCF realities. Fair value range: low $102, high $171, with mid-point at $136.

INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

QCOM intrinsic value questions

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

QCOM — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, QCOM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 219 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 136 (range USD 102–USD 171), implying roughly 37.9% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Sequential decline in QTL licensing run-rate.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contraction in QCT below 25%.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Apple announces 100% internal modem adoption timeline.	Monitor

Line item	2022-09-30	2023-09-30	2024-09-30	2025-09-30	Trend
Revenue	$44.20B	$35.82B-19.0%	$38.96B+8.8%	$44.28B+13.7%	+0.1%
Gross profit	$25.57B	$19.95B	$21.90B	$24.55B	-1.3%
Operating income	$15.86B	$8.65B	$10.25B	$12.39B	-7.9%
Net income	$12.94B	$7.23B-44.1%	$10.14B+40.2%	$5.54B-45.4%	-24.6%
EPS (diluted)	$11.37	$6.42	$8.97	$5.01	-23.9%
EBITDA	$17.25B	$9.95B	$12.74B	$14.93B	-4.7%
R&D	$8.19B	$8.82B	$8.89B	$9.04B	+3.3%
SG&A	$2.57B	$2.48B	$2.76B	$3.11B	+6.6%

QCOM intrinsic value questions

QCOM — frequently asked questions

QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated fair value $102–$171

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of QCOM also follow

§2 Bear case

Accelerated loss of key OEM customers

QTL regulatory crackdown

Commoditization of Edge AI

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.