Is QUALCOMM Incorporated overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, QCOM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 219 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 136 (range USD 102–USD 171), implying roughly 37.9% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is QCOM's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives QCOM a composite fair-value range of USD 102–USD 171, with a midpoint of USD 136. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for QUALCOMM Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy QCOM now?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. QUALCOMM Incorporated looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 219 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 136. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for QCOM?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-08 flags for QUALCOMM Incorporated are: Accelerated loss of key OEM customers; QTL regulatory crackdown; Commoditization of Edge AI.

What is QCOM's rating?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell, with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 102–USD 171) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 219).

What archetype is QCOM?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-08, QUALCOMM Incorporated is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for QCOM.

What are QCOM's bull, base, and bear cases?

Each scenario for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

How are QCOM's probability weights set?

Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.

What is QCOM's expected return?

Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.

How do QCOM's scenarios compare to private calibration references?

When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.

QCOM scenarios: bull, base, bear with probability weights

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-08; report age: historical; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

QCOM is a mature quality compounder dominating mobile connectivity. While near-term hardware revenue faces cyclical headwinds and the gradual loss of Apple as a modem customer, the QTL licensing segment provides strong cash flow, and automotive/IoT expansion offers durable new growth avenues. However, current valuation is completely detached from fundamental DCF realities. Fair value range: low $102, high $171, with mid-point at $136.

SCENARIOS FAQ

QCOM scenarios questions

Each scenario for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

QCOM — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, QCOM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 219 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 136 (range USD 102–USD 171), implying roughly 37.9% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Sequential decline in QTL licensing run-rate.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contraction in QCT below 25%.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Apple announces 100% internal modem adoption timeline.	Monitor

Line item	2022-09-30	2023-09-30	2024-09-30	2025-09-30	Trend
Revenue	$44.20B	$35.82B-19.0%	$38.96B+8.8%	$44.28B+13.7%	+0.1%
Gross profit	$25.57B	$19.95B	$21.90B	$24.55B	-1.3%
Operating income	$15.86B	$8.65B	$10.25B	$12.39B	-7.9%
Net income	$12.94B	$7.23B-44.1%	$10.14B+40.2%	$5.54B-45.4%	-24.6%
EPS (diluted)	$11.37	$6.42	$8.97	$5.01	-23.9%
EBITDA	$17.25B	$9.95B	$12.74B	$14.93B	-4.7%
R&D	$8.19B	$8.82B	$8.89B	$9.04B	+3.3%
SG&A	$2.57B	$2.48B	$2.76B	$3.11B	+6.6%

QCOM scenarios questions

QCOM — frequently asked questions

QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated fair value $102–$171

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of QCOM also follow

§2 Bear case

Accelerated loss of key OEM customers

QTL regulatory crackdown

Commoditization of Edge AI

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.