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Shopify Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $184.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 13.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.48 | |
| Shares out | 1.3B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 113.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 61.0x | |
| Volume | 4,647,035 | |
| Beta | 2.62 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $4.61B | $5.60B | $7.06B | $8.88B | $11.56B | +25.8% |
| Gross profit | $2.48B | $2.75B | $3.52B | $4.47B | $5.56B | +22.3% |
| Operating income | $3.14B | $-822.0M | $-1.42B | $1.08B | $1.47B | -17.3% |
| Net income | $2.91B | $-3.46B | $132.0M | $2.02B | $1.23B | -19.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.64 | $-2.73 | $0.10 | $1.55 | $0.94 | +10.1% |
| EBITDA | $3.21B | $-594.0M | $144.0M | $1.34B | $1.54B | -16.8% |
| R&D | $854.4M | $1.50B | $1.73B | $1.37B | $1.54B | +15.8% |
| SG&A | $374.8M | $708.0M | $491.0M | $410.0M | $471.0M | +5.9% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the Base scenario, Shopify compounds durable revenue supported by high merchant retention and steady enterprise brand additions. Operating expense discipline allows GAAP operating margins to expand toward eighteen percent over the forecast horizon, delivering a valuation target of $30.70 representing a return of -78.5% with a probability of 60.0%. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if annual revenue growth slows below twenty percent or operating expense leverage stalls.
The Bull scenario reflects accelerated enterprise retail migrations and expanding international payment take rates. Distilled artificial intelligence deployment and operational scaling push operating margins beyond twenty-one percent, yielding a valuation target of $41.35 representing -71.0% return at a probability of 20.0%. Disconfirmation would stem from elongation in enterprise enterprise software procurement cycles or payment take-rate compression.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | $35.9 | $36.3 | $36.8 | $37.3 | $38.0 |
| 12.4% | $32.8 | $33.1 | $33.5 | $33.9 | $34.3 |
| 13.4% | $30.2 | $30.4 | $30.7 | $31.0 | $31.3 |
| 14.4% | $27.9 | $28.1 | $28.3 | $28.5 | $28.8 |
| 15.4% | $26.0 | $26.1 | $26.3 | $26.4 | $26.6 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
