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Simon Property Group, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $77.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 6.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $14.2 | |
| Shares out | 379.4M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 14.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 30.7x | |
| Dividend | $9.00 (4.26%) | |
| Volume | 660,830 | |
| Beta | 1.33 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.12B | $5.29B | $5.66B | $5.96B | $6.36B | +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $4.15B | $4.29B | $4.73B | $4.92B | $5.46B | +7.1% |
| Operating income | $2.41B | $2.58B | $2.81B | $3.09B | $3.18B | +7.1% |
| Net income | $2.25B | $2.14B | $2.62B | $2.37B | $4.61B | +19.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.84 | $6.52 | $6.98 | $7.26 | $14.17 | +20.0% |
| EBITDA | $4.46B | $4.46B | $4.07B | $5.02B | $7.86B | +15.2% |
| R&D | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | +9.8% |
| SG&A | $30.3M | $35.0M | $38.5M | $44.7M | $125.7M | +42.7% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The base case represents the modal operating trajectory, where contractual minimum base rent escalations and steady tenant re-leasing support modest top-line revenue expansion. The signed-not-open leasing pipeline converts into revenue recognition over the forecast horizon, while redevelopment construction starts maintain disciplined capital intensity. Operating margins remain stable near historical norms, reflecting durable pricing power balanced by routine tenant improvements. However, market pricing at $204.82 significantly exceeds intrinsic operating fundamentals, resulting in a target of $121.70 and an expected return of -40.6% at a 50.0% probability weighting, converging toward Fair value $121.70.
Under the bull scenario, tenant retail sales accelerate across premier regional malls and premium outlets, driving strong percentage rent overages and robust leasing spreads on renewals. Recaptured department store anchor boxes are rapidly converted into high-yielding dining, entertainment, and mixed-use spaces, delivering returns on invested capital well above the cost of capital. Operating margins expand as tenant concessions remain minimal, supporting accelerated dividend distribution growth. Under these operating conditions, the shares re-rate toward Potential value $169.25, delivering an expected return of -17.4% at a 25.0% probability weighting.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $131 | $134 | $136 | $139 | $143 |
| 9.2% | $124 | $126 | $129 | $131 | $134 |
| 9.7% | $118 | $120 | $122 | $124 | $126 |
| 10.2% | $112 | $114 | $116 | $117 | $119 |
| 10.7% | $108 | $109 | $110 | $112 | $114 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
