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TTD trades against a final fair-value range of $15.84-$38.28, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $15.8, high $38.3, with mid-point at $26.9.
Stock analysis

TTD fair value $16–$38

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-20Next update: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Growth infrastructure
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Last price
$21.16
▲ +5.72 (+27.03%)
Fair value
$27
$16–$38
Rating
Strong Buy
confidence 82/100
Upside
+27.0%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$22.85
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$9.9B
P/E fwd 9.8

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $27 with high case $38.
  • Implied upside of 27.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$27
Margin of safety
+21.3%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$21.16Price
Low $15.84
Mid $26.88
High $38.28

TTD trades against a final fair-value range of $15.84-$38.28, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Leading independent DSP scale and
    Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.
  • First-mover advantage in Connected TV
    First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.
  • Bull thesis
    Primary: Strong structural growth engine, heavily discounted by backward-looking WACC models but validated by forward EPS expectations.

§2 Bear case

A high-betaBetaA statistical measure of a stock's price sensitivity relative to the market. We use an adjusted beta (raw, sector, and Bloomberg-blended) for moderate cost of equity and raw beta for the strict scenario. growth platform is highly vulnerable to duration risks; WACCWACCWeighted average cost of capital. The blended after-tax discount rate applied to free cash flows in a DCF, reflecting both equity and debt financing costs. penalties under sustained inflation can rapidly depress terminal valuation.

Ways this thesis can break

Walled Garden Encroachment

20%· Medium

Major tech platforms successfully close loop in CTV, eroding independent programmatic bidding volumes.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Macro Ad-Recession

30%· Medium

Prolonged macroeconomic downturn triggers significant contraction in programmatic ad spend, stalling growth.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
0-18 Months

UID2.0 Rejection

15%· Low

UID2.0 fails to gain traction against first-party data advantages, severely impairing targetability and ROAS.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-2 Years
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Operating margins stall or regress below 20% over two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration of CTV market share growth versus legacy walled gardens.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major retail media networks shift exclusively to internal identity solutions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Client concentration risks materialize via agency trading desk defections.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Google or Amazon successfully close loop in CTV ecosystem.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue$1.58B$1.95B$2.44B$2.90B+22.4%
Gross profit$1.30B$1.58B$1.97B$2.28B+20.6%
Operating income$113.7M$200.5M$427.2M$589.3M+73.1%
Net income$53.4M$178.9M$393.1M$443.3M+102.5%
EPS (diluted)$0.11$0.36$0.78$0.90+101.5%
EBITDA$168.1M$280.9M$514.7M$705.1M+61.3%
R&D$319.9M$411.8M$463.3M$525.1M+18.0%
SG&A$863.1M$968.2M$1.08B$1.16B+10.4%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
2.24×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
15.9%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

TTD income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of TTD (TTD) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

TTD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TTD looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $21.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $26.9 (range $15.8–$38.3), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.

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