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TTD trades against a final fair-value range of $15.84-$38.28, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A high-betaBetaA statistical measure of a stock's price sensitivity relative to the market. We use an adjusted beta (raw, sector, and market-adjusted) for moderate cost of equity and raw beta for the strict scenario. growth platform is highly vulnerable to duration risks; WACCWACCWeighted average cost of capital. The blended after-tax discount rate applied to free cash flows in a DCF, reflecting both equity and debt financing costs. penalties under sustained inflation can rapidly depress terminal valuation.
Major tech platforms successfully close loop in CTV, eroding independent programmatic bidding volumes.
Prolonged macroeconomic downturn triggers significant contraction in programmatic ad spend, stalling growth.
UID2.0 fails to gain traction against first-party data advantages, severely impairing targetability and ROAS.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.58B | $1.95B+23.4% | $2.44B+25.1% | $2.90B+18.9% | +22.4% |
| Gross profit | $1.30B | $1.58B | $1.97B | $2.28B | +20.6% |
| Operating income | $113.7M | $200.5M | $427.2M | $589.3M | +73.1% |
| Net income | $53.4M | $178.9M+235.0% | $393.1M+119.7% | $443.3M+12.8% | +102.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.11 | $0.36 | $0.78 | $0.90 | +101.5% |
| EBITDA | $168.1M | $280.9M | $514.7M | $705.1M | +61.3% |
| R&D | $319.9M | $411.8M | $463.3M | $525.1M | +18.0% |
| SG&A | $863.1M | $968.2M | $1.08B | $1.16B | +10.4% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Client concentration risks materialize via agency trading desk defections. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Google or Amazon successfully close loop in CTV ecosystem. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
