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United Parcel Service Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $79.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 91.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.19 | |
| Shares out | 850.8M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 20.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 12.1x | |
| Dividend | $6.56 (6.22%) | |
| Volume | 5,077,678 | |
| Beta | 1.05 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $97.29B | $100.34B | $90.96B | $91.07B | $88.66B | -2.3% |
| Gross profit | $17.43B | $20.08B | $17.71B | $17.06B | $16.03B | -2.1% |
| Operating income | $12.81B | $13.09B | $9.14B | $8.47B | $7.87B | -11.5% |
| Net income | $12.89B | $11.55B | $6.71B | $5.78B | $5.57B | -18.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.75 | $6.56 | -18.2% |
| EBITDA | $20.23B | $18.71B | $12.71B | $11.91B | $11.93B | -12.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $46.71B | $56.05B | $51.94B | $53.15B | $53.98B | +3.7% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the Base case, UPS executes on its core operational restructuring. Domestic hub automation increases to planned levels, holding per-piece cost growth below base pricing gains of 250 to 350 basis points. Amazon customer concentration continues to glide down from 10.6% as higher-yielding commercial SMB and healthcare shipments backfill capacity. Consolidated revenue expands at 3.10% in FY2026 to $91,409,491,000 and 3.79% in FY2027 to $94,873,910,709, while operating margin recovers from 8.87% sequentially through FY2026 and FY2027. Diluted EPS recovers from $6.56 to $7.20 in FY2026 and $8.07 in FY2027. Free cash flow expands to cover the annual dividend, supporting the synthesized fair value midpoint of $91.92 based on a 13.5x terminal P/E multiple.
In the Bull case, domestic hub sortation automation surpasses target penetration and generates unit cost reductions beyond initial targets, driving automated volume growth past the 337 million package increase recorded YoY. High-margin commercial SMB shipments rapidly backfill shed Amazon volume, lifting U.S. Domestic Package operating margin toward target levels. Concurrently, expanding Asian export lane volume and specialized biopharma cold chain throughput through Cologne lift international operating profit. Consolidated FY2027 diluted EPS reaches the consensus high of $8.66, free cash flow generation expands, and multiple expansion toward peer levels supports valuation upside reaching $106.89.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $105 | $108 | $111 | $114 | $117 |
| 7.8% | $98.5 | $101 | $103 | $106 | $109 |
| 8.3% | $93.1 | $94.9 | $91.9 | $99.1 | $101 |
| 8.8% | $88.3 | $89.9 | $91.5 | $93.3 | $95.3 |
| 9.3% | $84.1 | $85.5 | $86.9 | $88.4 | $90.0 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
