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Vistra Corp.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $47.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 19.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.87 | |
| Shares out | 335.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 13.3x | |
| Dividend | $0.92 (0.64%) | |
| Volume | 4,120,661 | |
| Beta | 1.38 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $17.70B | $15.63B | $13.80B | $14.76B | $17.59B | -0.2% |
| Gross profit | $60.0M | $3.81B | $5.17B | $7.69B | $2.97B | +165.3% |
| Operating income | $-1.52B | $-1.18B | $2.66B | $4.08B | $1.91B | — |
| Net income | $-1.27B | $-1.23B | $1.49B | $2.66B | $944.0M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.69 | $-3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 | — |
| EBITDA | $852.0M | $1.29B | $4.62B | $7.19B | $5.25B | +57.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $1.04B | $1.19B | $1.31B | $1.60B | $1.71B | +13.3% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The modal base path reflects reaffirmed management guidance for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA ($6.8B-$7.6B) and 2027 Adjusted EBITDA ($7.4B-$7.8B),. Integrated retail revenue matches physical generation output, delivering 18.30% initial operating margins that gradually normalize toward 16.16% by FY2030 as regional supply expands. Ongoing share repurchases exhaust the remaining ~$1.2B authorization by 2027, driving modest per-share accretion.
In the bull scenario, accelerated AI data center energization, sustained tight PJM capacity auction clears, and commercial bilateral contracts drive margins above base projections. Unmodeled earnings contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition and Meta PPAs provide operational upside beyond the $7.4B-$7.8B 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity,. Incumbent generation assets capture elevated scarcity rents as equipment inflation and interconnection delays restrict competing greenfield supply,.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $108 | $111 | $114 | $118 | $122 |
| 8.1% | $100 | $103 | $105 | $108 | $112 |
| 8.6% | $93.4 | $95.6 | $97.9 | $100 | $103 |
| 9.1% | $87.6 | $89.4 | $91.4 | $93.5 | $95.7 |
| 9.6% | $82.4 | $84.0 | $85.7 | $87.4 | $89.3 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
