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FY2027 revenue above $40.21 billion and adjusted EPS approaching $26.33 would extend the earnings path while strong cash generation supports reinvestment and debt service.
FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS falls below $22.57.
Buy. At $437.23 on 2026-09-04, the shares were below Fair value of $492.07 and Potential value of $640.92.3
The main risk is customer concentration. Repricing, loss, or in-sourcing by a major customer could reduce product sales, profit, and cash together.6
The clearest upside is stronger FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS with continued cash backing. That combination would extend earnings growth and raise value per share.15
The demand-led upside case requires FY2027 revenue to exceed its $40.21 billion mean while adjusted earnings remain strong.1
Buy because the report-date price sits below Fair value and positive FY2027 estimates have support from strong cash generation.35
Buy because the report-date price sits below Fair value and positive FY2027 estimates have support from strong cash generation.35
Amgen Inc. operates in a highly competitive environment. A number of its marketed products are indicated for disease areas in which other products or treatments are currently available or are being pursued by its competitors through R&D activities.
Additionally, some competitor-marketed products target the same genetic pathways as its recently launched marketed products or product candidates. Amgen Inc. provides negotiated rebates or discounts to healthcare providers, private payers, government payers and PBMs.
A customer event causing a 5% annual product-revenue contraction would reduce consolidated sales and pressure profit before leverage effects.
The evidence does not establish a structural moat based on switching costs, protected distribution, or platform breadth. Strong cash generation is an outcome, not a source of customer lock-in.
Product revenue supplied 95.6% of FY2025 revenue, while three customers supplied 77%. This concentration limits evidence for durable pricing power.
Cash generation supports present economics, but it does not establish durable excess returns.45
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($492.07). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $11.2B after modeled capex of $1.9B, with terminal value at 69.9% of . A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Stronger sales and earnings would support a longer period of growth.
That result would preserve the base path without proving longer-term durability.
Industry capital spending equaled 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01.
Start gradually because the report-date price is below Fair value, while FY2027 forecast ranges remain wide.13
Add only within portfolio limits while revenue, earnings, and cash remain on track.15
Use a smaller initial position because customer concentration and debt can amplify an operating miss.3
Buy, with staged exposure tied to FY2027 delivery.
The report-date price of $437.23 is below Fair value of $492.07, while positive estimates and cash generation support measured upside.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Lower sales and weaker profit would shorten earnings duration, while debt would leave less room for reinvestment.
Adjusted diluted EPS below $22.57 would show that the explicit earnings path and its assumed duration are not deliverable.1
A rise exceeding two percentage points from the 7.6252% cost-of-equity baseline would reduce the present worth of distant earnings.2
Cash generated per dollar of reported profit at or below 0.8 would weaken the independent support for adjusted earnings.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
A breach would show that the explicit earnings bridge failed, shortening the supported earnings period and reducing value assigned to future profit.
Current:FY2027 mean of $24.41 as of 2026-09-08.
Alert ifBelow $22.57 by FY2027.
A contraction would pass product weakness into consolidated sales, then pressure operating profit because the smaller other-revenue line offers little offset.
Current:FY2025 product revenue of $35.15 billion.
Alert ifAt least a 5% annual contraction within 24 months.
A higher required return would reduce the present worth of distant earnings, especially where value depends heavily on results after FY2027.
Current:7.6252% as of 2026-09-08.
Alert ifMore than two percentage points above the baseline within 12 months.
Weaker cash generation would make reported profit less dependable and leave less cash for capital spending, dividends, and debt service.
Current:FY2025 ratio of 1.2914.
Alert ifAt or below 0.8 for a trailing fiscal year within 24 months.
A sub-threshold outcome would show slower demand before longer-range assumptions begin, forcing lower revenue and earnings paths after FY2027.
Current:Approved FY2027 path of 3.26%.
Alert ifBelow 3% for FY2027.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 75.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Moderate growth and continued cash backing support the central valuation outlook. Evidence should emerge by FY2027 through annual revenue and adjusted EPS delivery.
Stronger revenue, earnings, and cash would extend growth duration without requiring a hyper-growth assumption. A low-end FY2027 earnings result would disconfirm this path.
A miss would shorten supported earnings duration.
FY2025 operating cash flow exceeded reported net income, but substantial debt still limits financial flexibility.35
Product weakness would reach consolidated sales quickly.6
Lower concentration would reduce repricing and customer-loss exposure.6
Strong cash backing funds investment and debt service.
| $25.98B |
| $26.32B |
| $28.19B |
| $33.42B |
| $36.75B |
| +9.1% |
| Gross profit | $19.53B | $19.92B | $19.74B | $20.57B | $26.01B | +7.4% |
| Operating income | $7.64B | $9.57B | $7.90B | $7.26B | $9.08B | +4.4% |
| Net income | $5.89B | $6.55B | $6.72B | $4.09B | $7.71B | +7.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.28 | $12.11 | $12.49 | $7.56 | $14.23 | +8.5% |
| EBITDA | $11.30B | $12.17B | $7.90B | $13.36B | $16.90B | +10.6% |
| R&D | $6.32B | $4.43B | $4.78B | $5.96B | $6.97B | +2.5% |
| SG&A | $5.37B | $5.41B | $6.18B | $7.10B | $7.05B | +7.1% |
FY2025 free cash flow remained positive after $1.86 billion of capital spending. This supports the earnings case, although future growth investment is not assumed to be costless.45
Shares outstanding were 540.632 million on 2026-09-08 versus 542 million diluted-average shares in FY2025. The outlook retains dilution rather than assuming a buyback benefit.
The cash figures support operating strength, but they do not establish a dated return-on-invested-capital trajectory.
No ROIC comparison is asserted. The enterprise discount rate was 7.1098% as of 2026-09-08.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $9.96 billion and free cash flow was $8.1 billion.
Cash supports investment and debt service, but does not remove leverage risk.
FY2025 net income was $7.71 billion, below operating cash flow.
The earnings case is less dependent on non-cash accounting entries.
Total debt was $57.30 billion on 2026-09-07.
Weaker cash generation or higher refinancing costs could crowd out reinvestment.
| Revenue | $36,751,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $10,739,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $26,012,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $16,932,000,000 |
| Operating income | $9,080,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$1,369,000,000 |
| Net income | $7,711,000,000 |
| Total assets | $90,586,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $9,129,000,000 |
| Current assets | $29,057,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $81,928,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $25,489,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $8,658,000,000 |
| Net income | $7,711,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $13,372,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5,167,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $494,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $9,958,000,000 |
| Operating outflow | $3,414,000,000 |
| Cash available | $21,931,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $11,973,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $1,943,000,000 |
| Capex | $1,858,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $85,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $10,859,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $5,124,000,000 |
| Net debt repayment | $5,000,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $735,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $9,129,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$1,943,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$10,859,000,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by business category | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $35.1B | 95.6% | 9.7% |
| Product And Service Other | $1.6B | 4.4% | — |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-08 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $23B | $12.5B | $7.7B | $10.4B | $9.6B | $738M | $2.1B | $311M | $3B | $3B | — | -$8.7B | -$2.6B | — | $3.2B | $38.1B | $34.6B | 42.6% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $22.8B | $12.9B | $2B | $11.2B | $10.5B | $664M | $2B | $329M | $3.2B | $3.4B | — | -$4B | -$6.6B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $41.7B | $35.3B | 43.6% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $23.7B | $12.9B | $8.4B | $11.3B | $10.6B | $738M | $1.9B | $311M | $17.8B | $3.5B | — | $14.3B | -$22.5B | $3.8B | $6.9B | $29.3B | $33.9B | 43.2% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $23.4B | $12.6B | $7.8B | $9.2B | $8.5B | $618M | $2.2B | $308M | $7.7B | $3.5B | — | $5.7B | -$15.8B | $6.9B | $6B | $8.9B | $29.9B | 41.4% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $25.4B | $13B | $7.3B | $10.5B | $9.9B | $608M | $3.6B | $330M | $3.5B | $3.8B | — | -$5.4B | -$4.9B | $6B | $6.3B | $10.6B | $33B | 35.9% | — | 3.2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $26B | $11.3B | $5.9B | $9.3B | $8.4B | $880M | $3.4B | $341M | $5B | $4B | — | $733M | -$8.3B | $6.3B | $8B | $8B | $33.3B | 29.4% | — | 3.7% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $26.3B | $12.2B | $6.6B | $9.7B | $8.8B | $936M | $3.4B | $401M | $6.4B | $4.2B | $6.9B | -$6B | -$4B | $8B | $7.6B | $9.3B | $38.9B | 36.3% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $28.2B | $7.9B | $6.7B | $8.5B | $7.4B | $1.1B | $4.1B | $431M | $0 | $4.6B | $26.3B | -$26.2B | $21B | $7.6B | $10.9B | $21.9B | $64.6B | 28.0% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $33.4B | $13.4B | $4.1B | $11.5B | $10.4B | $1.1B | $5.6B | $530M | $200M | $4.8B | -$3.6B | -$1B | -$9.4B | $10.9B | $12B | $12B | $60.1B | 21.7% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $36.8B | $16.9B | $7.7B | $10B | $8.1B | $1.9B | $5.2B | $494M | $0 | $5.1B | -$5B | -$1.9B | -$10.9B | $12B | $9.1B | $9.1B | $54.6B | 24.7% | — | 5.9% | — |
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) trades at 18.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.2x compares with a peer median of 13.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Johnson & Johnson, Biogen Inc., Pfizer Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, as of 2026-09-08.
| Note |
|---|
| Product-led pharmaceutical demand | neutral | Positive FY2027 revenue expectations support demand, but the wide forecast range limits visibility beyond that year. |
Amgen enters this cycle with positive cash generation, concentrated customers, and substantial debt. Demand delivery matters more than an assumed industry capacity upswing.35
| Direct revenue and earnings evidence ends in FY2027. |
| FY2027 adjusted EPS at or above $22.57 and revenue growth at or above 3% | Add within portfolio limits. | Those thresholds preserve the earnings and growth paths. |
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
| Biogen Inc. |
| 13.3x |
| 3.3x |
| 11.8x |
| 4.6% |
| 25.1% |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 9.8x | 2.5x | 8.4x | 5.0% | 27.9% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 17.7x | 0.8x | 15.2x | 14.2% | 7.1% |
