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Customer relationships and portfolio breadth give Amphenol access to architecture discussions.
FY2027 revenue falls below $39.47 billion, the low end of the dated analyst range.
Strong Buy. The report-date price was $81.76 on September 8, 2026, versus Fair value of $114.83 and Potential value of $149.72. The main risk is FY2027 revenue falling below its dated range, which would shorten expected growth duration. The clearest upside test is whether architecture discussions produce reported production positions; the cited remarks establish access, not wins.134
The report-date price sits below both Fair value and Potential value. This supports staged buying rather than waiting for a lower unsupported entry point.3
The main risk is FY2027 revenue falling below the dated analyst low. That would lower the supported sales base and shorten expected growth duration. Lower sales would pressure operating leverage, earnings, cash and value per share.1
The clearest upside test is reported production evidence from the architecture discussions. The cited remarks establish broad technology coverage and customer access, but not production wins.4
Participation in customer architecture discussions can improve design access before technical choices are final, but future optical structures remain unresolved.4
Management reported strong Q2 orders and broad data-related demand. Continued customer spending would support sales growth and operating leverage.4
Strong Buy: buy in stages because dated revenue support and FY2025 cash generation outweigh the unresolved duration risk.146
Strong Buy: buy in stages because dated FY2027 revenue support and FY2025 cash generation outweigh the unresolved duration risk.146
Defense - Amphenol is a world leader in the design, manufacture and supply of high-performance interconnect systems for harsh environment aerospace and defense applications. Such products require superior performance and reliability under conditions of stress and in hostile environments such as vibration, pressure, humidity, radiation and rapid and severe temperature changes. The Company manufactures and sells a broad portfolio of products on a global basis to customers in a wide variety of industries.
Its customers include many of the leaders in their respective industries, and its relationships with them typically date back many years. AMPHENOL CORPORATION believes that its diversified customer base provides us with the opportunity to leverage its skills and experience across markets and reduces its exposure to particular end markets.
These risks can reinforce each other: weaker demand lowers earnings, while leverage and higher required returns reduce what investors pay.
Customer and design relationships give Amphenol access to architecture discussions, while portfolio breadth reduces dependence on one technical path. These advantages support optionality, not a proven long-term production position.
MRVL, PANW, CRM and LRCX each provide a dated technology valuation observation. Wide differences in growth, margins and multiples make them imperfect operating comparisons.
FY2025 cash generation supports the economics of the business, but cash flow is an outcome rather than a structural moat source.56
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($114.83). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $4.6B after modeled capex of $964.6M, with terminal value at 60.5% of . A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Results above the dated FY2027 sales and adjusted EPS ranges would establish the beat. Trailing fiscal-year operating cash above reported profit would separately show that total-period cash remained ahead of profit.
Industry capital spending exceeds depreciation, and management expected company spending near the upper end of its stated range during growth.4
Management reported strong Q2 orders and broad data-related demand. Continued customer spending would support sales growth and operating leverage.
Explicit annual estimate visibility ends after FY2027, while optical architectures remain unsettled. A faster demand fade would weaken sales, margins and cash generation.
Use a staged allocation because the report-date price is below Fair value. Require FY2027 revenue to remain within its dated range and architecture discussions to become production evidence before adding.134
Make later purchases only if FY2027 revenue stays within its dated range, operating cash remains above reported profit, and architecture discussions produce reported production evidence. Treat the debt figures as separate dated snapshots, not a continuous debt history.
The report-date price is below Fair value, with dated FY2027 revenue support and strong FY2025 cash generation.135
Buy in stages because the accepted Fair value exceeds the report-date price, while Potential value requires stronger duration evidence.3
Start smaller and require FY2027 revenue to remain within the dated range before increasing exposure.
Buy in stages because the report-date price is below Fair value and the near-term revenue path has dated support.13
Do not extend the strongest growth assumptions unless architecture discussions become corroborated production revenue.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Revenue below the dated FY2027 range would shorten expected growth duration. Lower earnings and cash would leave less flexibility against the disclosed debt balance, making equity more sensitive to an operating miss.
Revenue below the dated FY2027 low would show the acquisition step-up fading, cutting earnings, shortening growth duration and weakening valuation.1
A required-return increase beyond the reviewed shock would discount future earnings more heavily and amplify leverage or integration pressure materially.23
A forward earnings multiple at or below the bear boundary would cut value despite meeting near-term earnings expectations in full.3
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Likelihood is not independently estimated; severity is high. The annual FY2027 revenue estimate is the indicator. A breach would lower the supported sales base, reduce operating leverage, earnings and cash, and shorten expected growth duration.
Current:FY2027 analyst revenue estimate was $41.67 billion, with a $39.47-$44.03 billion range, as of and retrieved September 9, 2026.
Alert ifBelow $39.47 billion by FY2027
Likelihood is not independently estimated; severity is high. The required equity return is the indicator. A sustained rise would discount future earnings more heavily and make the shares more sensitive to the disclosed debt balance.
Current:The required equity return baseline was 9.2796% as of and retrieved September 9, 2026.
Alert ifMore than 2 percentage points above the baseline within 12 months
Likelihood is not independently estimated; severity is medium. The forward earnings multiple is the indicator. A breach means investors pay less for each dollar of future earnings, reducing value per share even if near-term estimates are achieved.
Current:The forward earnings multiple was 24.75x as of and retrieved September 9, 2026.
Alert ifAt or below 18x within 24 months
Likelihood is not independently estimated; severity is medium. Trailing fiscal-year operating cash relative to reported profit is the indicator. A breach would show that earnings provide less cash for debt service, reinvestment and owners.
Current:FY2025 operating cash was $5.38 billion, versus reported profit of $4.27 billion.
Alert ifAt or below $0.80 of operating cash for each $1.00 of reported profit over a trailing fiscal year
Likelihood is not independently estimated; severity is medium. The annual geography disclosure is the indicator. A breach would increase exposure to a country-specific shock, although the disclosed location does not establish the demand, production or policy channel.
Current:FY2025 China-attributed revenue was $3.67 billion, versus consolidated revenue of $23.10 billion.
Alert ifChina-attributed revenue reaches at least 20% next fiscal year
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The base path assumes FY2027 revenue stays within the dated analyst range and operating cash remains above reported profit. Those are the observable confirmation tests.16
The bull path assumes architecture discussions produce reported production positions. The cited remarks establish broad technology coverage and customer access, but not production wins.4
Results inside the ranges would preserve the dated FY2027 sales and earnings anchors. They would not prove growth beyond FY2027 while future optical architectures remain unresolved.
A lower FY2027 sales base would shorten expected growth duration. Operating cash below reported profit would indicate that each dollar of earnings provides less cash.
The FY2025 cash record supports reported earnings, but it does not establish the durability of future earnings.56
It tests whether the acquisition-led step-up is holding.
Slippage would reduce profit from each sales dollar.
Weakening would imply greater working-capital or spending needs.
Higher needs would reduce cash available to owners.
Production evidence would support growth beyond FY2027.
| $10.88B |
| $12.62B |
| $12.55B |
| $15.22B |
| $23.09B |
| +20.7% |
| Gross profit | $3.40B | $4.03B | $4.08B | $5.14B | $8.52B | +25.8% |
| Operating income | $2.11B | $2.59B | $2.56B | $3.16B | $5.87B | +29.2% |
| Net income | $1.59B | $1.90B | $1.93B | $2.42B | $4.27B | +28.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.27 | $1.53 | $1.55 | $1.92 | $3.34 | +27.3% |
| EBITDA | $2.50B | $2.99B | $2.56B | $3.80B | $6.89B | +28.8% |
| R&D | $317.7M | $323.6M | $342.2M | $453.0M | $647.0M | +19.5% |
| SG&A | $1.23B | $1.42B | $1.49B | $1.86B | $2.55B | +20.0% |
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, and free cash remained positive after capital spending. This supports earnings quality but does not prove that future growth needs no reinvestment.56
FY2025 cash and debt show meaningful liquidity alongside leverage. A separate report-date debt snapshot uses another date and source, so it is not a clean debt trend.
FY2025 operating income and cash generation establish earnings power, but those observations alone do not establish a multi-period return-on-capital trend.
The cited operating and cash facts do not establish a dated return-on-capital spread over the report-date WACC.
Operating cash exceeded net income, while free cash remained substantial.
The earnings base has cash support, although future reinvestment still needs explicit tracking.
FY2025 diluted average shares and the report-date shares-outstanding observation use different measures whose common basis is unresolved.
Future earnings per share should not be treated as fully comparable until the denominator basis is reconciled.
| Revenue | $8,758,100,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $5,210,100,000 |
| Gross profit | $3,548,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $963,400,000 |
| Operating income | $2,584,600,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$815,400,000 |
| Net income | $1,769,200,000 |
| Total assets | $36,236,900,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $11,130,600,000 |
| Current assets | $20,267,200,000 |
| Total liabilities | $22,727,200,000 |
| Current liabilities | $6,802,800,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $13,500,400,000 |
| Net income | $4,270,300,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $5,374,700,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $922,400,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $135,400,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $46,600,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $5,374,700,000 |
| Cash available | $16,212,700,000 |
| Beginning cash | $3,317,000,000 |
| Financing inflow | $7,423,200,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $97,800,000 |
| Investing outflow | $5,082,100,000 |
| Capex | $996,600,000 |
| Other investing activities | $4,085,500,000 |
| Ending cash | $11,130,600,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$5,082,100,000 |
| Financing cash flow | $7,423,200,000 |
| Revenue by business category | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of | 5.2B | 59.5% | — |
| Other | 3.5B | 40.5% | — |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by geography | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Foreign Locations | $11.4B | 49.5% | 74.5% |
| United States | $8B | 34.6% | 51.5% |
| China | $3.7B | 15.9% | 8% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-09 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $6.3B | $1.4B | $822.9M | $1.1B | $886.8M | $190.8M | $217M | $47.6M | $325.8M | $172.7M | — | -$1.6B | -$133.5M | — | $1B | $1.2B | $3B | 19.2% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $7B | $1.7B | $650.5M | $1.1B | $917.6M | $226.6M | $226.8M | $49.7M | $618M | $205M | — | -$380.2M | -$140.1M | $1B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $3.5B | 20.4% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $8.2B | $2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $802.1M | $310.6M | $299.7M | $55.6M | $935.2M | $253.7M | — | -$441.8M | -$1.1B | $1.7B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $3.6B | 20.6% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $8.2B | $1.9B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $295M | $312.1M | $63M | $601.7M | $279.5M | — | -$1.2B | -$648.4M | $1.3B | $891.2M | $908.6M | $3.6B | 19.7% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $8.6B | $2B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.3B | $276.8M | $308.1M | $70.5M | $641.3M | $297.6M | — | -$333.5M | -$516.6M | $891.2M | $1.7B | $1.7B | $3.9B | 19.1% | — | 5.6% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $10.9B | $2.5B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $360.4M | $395.6M | $83M | $661.7M | $346.7M | — | -$1.9B | -$145.2M | $1.7B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $4.8B | 19.4% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $12.6B | $3B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $383.8M | $392.9M | $89.5M | $730.5M | $477.4M | -$163.8M | -$731.1M | -$1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $4.6B | 20.5% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $12.6B | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $2.2B | $372.8M | $406.4M | $99M | $585.1M | $500.6M | -$293.4M | -$1.4B | -$1B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $4.3B | 20.4% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $15.2B | $3.8B | $2.4B | $2.8B | $2.1B | $665.4M | $572.5M | $109.5M | $689.3M | $595.1M | $2.6B | -$2.6B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $3.3B | $3.3B | $7.3B | 20.7% | — | 9.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $23.1B | $6.9B | $4.3B | $5.4B | $4.4B | $996.6M | $922.4M | $135.4M | $665.2M | $802.2M | $8.5B | -$5.1B | $7.4B | $3.3B | $11.1B | $11.4B | $15.5B | 25.4% | — | 8.8% | — |
Amphenol Corporation (APH) trades at 24.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 30.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 23.0x compares with a peer median of 58.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Marvell Technology Inc., Palo Alto Networks Inc., Salesforce Inc. and Lam Research Corporation, as of 2026-09-09.
| Rising interconnect intensity | positive | Training and inference require more interconnect content, which can expand Amphenol's addressable content across architectures. |
| Hybrid optical architectures | neutral | Hybrid designs create opportunity, but they also leave the timing and durability of optical production positions unresolved. |
Breadth across copper, optical and power technologies reduces dependence on a single architecture, while design conversion remains the key proof point.4
| Action |
|---|
| Why |
|---|
| Report-date price below Fair value | Buy an initial tranche. | The accepted valuation stands above the report-date price. |
| FY2027 revenue remains within range and designs convert | Buy another tranche. | Those conditions would support both the near-term step-up and longer growth duration. |
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. |
| 69.0x |
| 23.9x |
| 147.6x |
| 1.7% |
| 5.0% |
| CRM | Salesforce Inc. | 15.6x | 4.7x | 18.3x | 19.4% | 21.4% |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 27.7x | 17.3x | 46.2x | 65.1% | 37.4% |
