Optional product analytics
With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
Bull: Rapid stabilization of production rates, swift resolution of regulatory hurdles, and margin expansion driven by operating leverage and high-margin services growth.
Market internal valuation cross-checks is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
Boeing possesses a significant moat in commercial aerospace but faces severe near-term execution, regulatory, and financial challenges. Success depends entirely on returning to positive free cash flow, scaling production rates safely, and restoring customer trust amidst a deeply distressed financial profile.
Boeing possesses a significant moat in commercial aerospace but faces severe near-term execution, regulatory, and financial challenges. Success depends entirely on returning to positive free cash flow, scaling production rates safely, and restoring customer trust amidst a deeply distressed financial profile.
Duopoly market structure with Airbus limits alternatives for airlines.
High switching costs due to fleet commonality and pilot training requirements.
Market internal valuation cross-checks is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
Sell due to severe overvaluation relative to fundamental distress.
The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems, and services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Airplanes; Defense, Space & Security; and Global Services. The Commercial Airplanes segment develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo requirements. The Defense, Space & Security segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems; strategic defense and intelligence systems, which include strategic missile and defense systems, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cyber and information solutions, and intelligence systems; and satellite systems, such as government and commercial satellites, and space exploration. The Global Services segment offers products and services, including supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance and modifications, upgrades and conversions, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, technical and maintenance documents, and data analytics and digital services to commercial and defense customers. The Boeing Company was incorporated in 1916 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
A prolonged inability to stabilize 737 MAX and 787 production rates due to entrenched manufacturing defects and heightened FAA scrutiny. This drives continued severe cash burn, forcing highly dilutive equity issuances or expensive debt refinancing, permanently impairing equity value.
Duopoly market structure with Airbus limits alternatives for airlines.
High switching costs due to fleet commonality and pilot training requirements.
Significant regulatory and capital barriers to entry for new competitors.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Unavailable
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $5.2B after capex $1.3B, with terminal value at -196.9% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/ or materially resets.
If Q3 FCF is positive, market may price in stabilization; if negative, expect further downward pressure and potential downgrade.
If Q3 FCF is positive, market may price in stabilization; if negative, expect further downward pressure and potential downgrade.
If Q3 FCF is positive, market may price in stabilization; if negative, expect further downward pressure and potential downgrade.
If Q3 FCF is positive, market may price in stabilization; if negative, expect further downward pressure and potential downgrade.
Entering a constrained capital cycle; heavy debt burden limits R&D investment for next-generation aircraft programs.
Global airline traffic recovers to pre-pandemic growth trend, driving demand for fuel-efficient narrowbody and widebody replacements.
Economic recession dampens air travel, airlines defer capital expenditures and delay or cancel new aircraft orders.
Entering a constrained capital cycle; heavy debt burden limits R&D investment for next-generation aircraft programs.
Avoid.
Sell existing positions.
Market internal valuation cross-checks is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
Intrinsic valuation anchors on stark economic realities of negative cash flow and high debt, not speculative margin recoveries.
Sell. The massive gap between intrinsic model output and market price is empirically supported by negative cash flows, high debt, and unachievable implied expectations.
Downside case: Market internal valuation cross-checks is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Persistent manufacturing defects limit production scale. Prolonged cash burn requires further dilutive equity issuance. Loss of market share to Airbus accelerates, permanently capping long-term growth and profitability.
FAA permanently caps or significantly reduces 737 MAX production rates below 38 per month due to ongoing safety culture and quality control failures.
Credit agencies downgrade debt to junk status amidst persistent cash burn, spiking interest costs and forcing emergency dilutive capital raises.
Key airline customers lose patience with delivery delays and safety issues, canceling bulk orders and shifting entirely to Airbus A320neo family.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Persistent cash burn drains liquidity reserves, impairs working capital recovery, and forces management to pursue expensive debt refinancing or dilutive equity offerings rather than funding commercial production ramp-ups.
Current:0.477 as of 2026-05-09
Alert if<= $0 for two consecutive quarters
Prolonged regulatory certification holds restrict deliveries of next-generation aircraft, reducing commercial delivery volume, triggering customer penalty payments, and allowing competitors to capture valuable single-aisle and wide-body order backlog.
Current:Pending 777X and 737 MAX 7/10 approval as of 2026-05-09
Alert ifCertification schedule postponed by >= 6 months in any fiscal year
Higher leverage increases annual interest expense, tightens debt covenant headroom, and risks credit agency downgrades to junk status, severely restricting capital allocation flexibility and increasing refinancing costs.
Current:$43.5B as of 2026-05-09
Alert if> $43.5B at any fiscal quarter end
Customer defections to rival airframes shrink long-term production backlogs, reduce advance customer deposits, and permanently erode commercial market share across high-volume narrow-body routes.
Current:Active fleet order commitments without bulk customer cancellations as of 2026-05-09
Alert ifBulk aircraft order cancellations exceeding 50 units in any single quarter
New manufacturing defects or regulatory groundings erode airline and passenger trust, invite stricter regulatory caps on factory output, and impose substantial remediation expenses and delivery delay penalties.
Current:Enhanced FAA oversight active as of 2026-05-09
Alert if>= 1 FAA fleet grounding directive in any fiscal year
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Gradual recovery in delivery volumes anchored to private estimate references. Margins slowly improve toward the 7.0% target over five years, but lingering inefficiencies and debt service heavily constrain near-term cash generation.
Warning level: <= $0 for two consecutive quarters. Persistent cash burn drains liquidity reserves, impairs working capital recovery, and forces management to pursue expensive debt refinancing or dilutive equity offerings rather than funding commercial production ramp-ups.
Warning level: Certification schedule postponed by >= 6 months in any fiscal year. Prolonged regulatory certification holds restrict deliveries of next-generation aircraft, reducing commercial delivery volume, triggering customer penalty payments, and allowing competitors to capture valuable single-aisle and wide-body order backlog.
Warning level: > $43.5B at any fiscal quarter end. Higher leverage increases annual interest expense, tightens debt covenant headroom, and risks credit agency downgrades to junk status, severely restricting capital allocation flexibility and increasing refinancing costs.
Warning level: Bulk aircraft order cancellations exceeding 50 units in any single quarter. Customer defections to rival airframes shrink long-term production backlogs, reduce advance customer deposits, and permanently erode commercial market share across high-volume narrow-body routes.
Warning level: >= 1 FAA fleet grounding directive in any fiscal year. New manufacturing defects or regulatory groundings erode airline and passenger trust, invite stricter regulatory caps on factory output, and impose substantial remediation expenses and delivery delay penalties.
| $77.79B |
| $66.52B |
| $89.46B |
| +10.3% |
| Gross profit | $3.53B | $7.72B | $-1.99B | $4.29B | +6.7% |
| Operating income | $-2.46B | $454.0M | $-9.49B | $5.41B | — |
| Net income | $-4.94B | $-2.22B | $-11.82B | $2.24B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-8.30 | $-3.67 | $-18.36 | $2.48 | — |
| EBITDA | $-482.0M | $2.32B | $-7.65B | $7.36B | — |
| R&D | $2.85B | $3.38B | $3.81B | $3.62B | +8.2% |
| SG&A | $4.19B | $5.17B | $5.02B | $6.09B | +13.3% |
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Revenue | 89,463,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 85,174,000,000 |
| Gross profit | 4,289,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | 9,705,000,000 |
| Operating income | -5,416,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | 7,651,000,000 |
| Net income | 2,235,000,000 |
| Total assets | 168,235,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | 10,921,000,000 |
| Current assets | 128,459,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | 162,778,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | 108,115,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | 5,454,000,000 |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-05-09 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | 66.6B | -482M | -4.9B | 3.5B | 2.3B | 1.2B | 2B | 725M | — | — | -1.3B | — | — | — | — | 14.6B | 57.3B | -5.3% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 77.8B | 2.3B | -2.2B | 6B | 4.4B | 1.5B | 1.9B | 690M | — | — | -5.1B | — | — | — | — | 12.7B | 52.6B | -1.1% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 66.5B | -7.6B | -11.8B | -12.1B | -14.4B | 2.3B | 1.8B | 407M | — | — | 1.5B | — | — | — | — | 13.8B | 54.2B | -16.3% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 89.5B | 7.4B | 2.2B | 1.1B | -1.9B | 3B | 2B | 426M | — | 331M | -3.5B | — | — | — | — | 10.9B | 54.4B | -6.1% | — | — | — |
BA trades at 55.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.3x; EV/EBITDA of -64.9x against a peer median of 17.8x; 6 peers.
| RTX Corporation |
| 23.3x |
| 2.6x |
| 17.8x |
| 11.6% |
| 13.2% |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corporation | 16.0x | 1.6x | 17.1x | 67.6% | 11.0% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 48.4x | 13.2x | 44.1x | 30.4% | 26.3% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 19.3x | 1.7x | 15.4x | 18.0% | 10.5% |
