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Upside could persist if FY2027 revenue and earnings reach the upper estimate ranges, capex lifts operating leverage, and the observed FY2023-FY2025 share contraction continues without straining the balance sheet.
FY2027 revenue falls below $82.63 billion.
Sell. The $813.94 report-date price is above $297.04 Fair value and $377.21 Potential value.3
The main risk is that FY2027 demand falls below the estimate range while capex stays high. Lower volume would weaken cost absorption, earnings, and cash generation.14
The clearest upside is a stronger recovery through FY2027. Upper-range revenue and earnings, productive capex, and continued share contraction could lift value per share.14
The cycle strengthens if FY2027 revenue approaches the upper analyst range and capital spending produces operating leverage.14
Sell because the report-date price materially exceeds the accepted Fair value and Potential value.
Sell because the report-date price materially exceeds the accepted Fair value and Potential value.
The Financial Products line of business also conducts operations under highly competitive conditions. Financing for users of Caterpillar products is available through a variety of competitive sources, principally commercial banks and finance and leasing companies. In 2025, its company introduced a revised strategy anchored by a new mission statement: Solving its customers' toughest challenges. Coupled with its purpose, the company builds a better, more sustainable world, this strategy guides how the company operates with its global team and engage with customers, dealers and suppliers. The refreshed strategy establishes three profitable growth pillars focused on addressing customers' needs; Commercial Excellence, Advanced Technology Leader, and Transform How CATERPILLAR INC Work.
Three of its operating segments, Construction Industries, Resource Industries and Power & Energy are led by Group Presidents. One operating segment, Financial Products, is led by the CFO who also has responsibility for Corporate Services. Corporate Services is a cost center primarily responsible for the performance of certain support functions globally and to provide centralized services; it does not meet the definition of an operating segment.
The central stress combines weaker FY2027 demand with persistent investment needs. Lower volume would reduce cost absorption, while elevated capex and debt would limit cash available for repurchases.
Caterpillar’s scale and substantial earnings are operating outcomes, not proof of switching costs, proprietary integration, distribution strength, or lasting cost advantage. The available product and peer evidence does not establish a structural moat.
FY2025 operating income was $11.15 billion, but profitability alone is not a structural moat source.4
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($297.04). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $9.9B after modeled reinvestment of $439.1M, with terminal value at 69.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
A beat matters only if revenue strength is joined by better operating leverage and moderating capital needs.
Delivery near estimates would support recovery but would not prove durable growth beyond FY2027.
Company capex rose from $1.60 billion in FY2023 to $2.82 billion in FY2025. Industry capex was 4.1% of revenue and 0.68 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01.4
The cycle strengthens if FY2027 revenue approaches the upper analyst range and capital spending produces operating leverage.
A demand reversal would hit the dominant machinery, power and energy category, weakening volume and spreading fixed costs across fewer sales.
No new allocation under the Sell rating. The $813.94 report-date price exceeds the $377.21 Potential value.3
Keep exposure declining until revenue, margin, and capex productivity jointly improve; an estimate beat alone is insufficient.
The $813.94 report-date price is above $297.04 Fair value and $377.21 Potential value.3
Prioritize reduction on strength because the accepted rating is Sell.
Near-term estimate strength does not offset the valuation gap or unresolved capital productivity.14
Reduce exposure and avoid new purchases.
Fair value is $297.04 and Potential value is $377.21, both below the $813.94 report-date price.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
This path becomes visible by FY2028 if demand fades before investment spending produces operating leverage. Better revenue and margin delivery would disconfirm it.
FY2027 revenue below $82.63 billion would miss the estimate range and weaken volume, operating margin, earnings, and cash generation.1
Capex above 7% of revenue through FY2028, without operating leverage, would keep reinvestment high and reduce cash available to shareholders.4
A normalized operating margin below 14% would indicate weak pricing or cost absorption, reducing operating profit and cash flow.
A two-percentage-point increase in required return, while debt remains elevated, would reduce what investors pay for future cash and earnings.23
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
A breach would show that post-event demand did not persist, reducing volume available for fixed-cost absorption and pressuring earnings and cash flow.
Current:Analyst consensus was $88.05 billion for FY2027 as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Alert ifBelow $82.63 billion in FY2027.
Persistently high spending without operating leverage would indicate weak project productivity, raising reinvestment and reducing cash available to shareholders.
Current:FY2025 capex was $2.82 billion in the company filing, retrieved 2026-09-08.
Alert ifAbove 7% of revenue through FY2028.
Weak pricing or volume absorption would leave operating costs spread across fewer profitable sales, lowering earnings and cash generation.
Current:FY2025 operating income was $11.15 billion on $67.59 billion of revenue.
Alert ifBelow 14% within 24 months.
A higher required return would lower the present value of future business cash flows and reduce the value of the equity claim.
Current:WACC was 9.4104% as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Alert ifAn increase above the baseline by two percentage points within 12 months.
Broad contraction across these regions would remove geographic offset, lowering consolidated sales and weakening the mix available to support operating margin.
Current:FY2025 revenue was $11.20 billion in Asia Pacific, $12.79 billion in EMEA, and $6.99 billion in Latin America.
Alert ifCombined trailing-twelve-month growth below negative 5%.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Confirmation requires FY2027 revenue within the supplied range and improving margin as spending normalizes. Elevated capex without leverage by FY2028 would disconfirm it.14
This path needs evidence by FY2028 that growth and margins are fading more slowly as investment needs normalize. Weak margin delivery would disconfirm it.4
Weak revenue or margin would reduce fixed-cost absorption and cash generation.
For FY2025, cash generated from operations exceeded reported profit. That supports the reported earnings but does not prove the future margin path.
It reveals whether pricing and volume are covering fixed operating costs.
A lower share count raises per-share results only if repurchases remain funded.4
| $50.97B |
| $59.43B |
| $67.06B |
| $64.81B |
| $67.59B |
| +7.3% |
| Gross profit | $15.00B | $17.51B | $23.26B | $23.32B | $21.86B | +9.9% |
| Operating income | $6.88B | $7.90B | $12.97B | $13.07B | $11.15B | +12.8% |
| Net income | $6.49B | $6.71B | $10.34B | $10.79B | $8.87B | +8.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $11.83 | $12.64 | $20.12 | $22.05 | $18.81 | +12.3% |
| EBITDA | $11.04B | $11.41B | $15.71B | $16.04B | $14.86B | +7.7% |
| R&D | $1.69B | $1.81B | $2.11B | $2.11B | $2.15B | +6.2% |
| SG&A | $5.37B | $5.65B | $6.37B | $6.67B | $6.99B | +6.8% |
For FY2025, operating cash exceeded reported profit, but capital spending also reached $2.82 billion. Future cash available to shareholders depends on the investment build becoming productive.4
Diluted average shares declined from 513.6 million in FY2023 to 472.3 million in FY2025. Continued contraction is conditional because FY2025 debt of $43.33 billion exceeded $9.98 billion of cash.
The cited evidence shows rising investment and substantial operating income, but it does not establish a dated return-on-invested-capital trajectory.
WACC was 9.4104% as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08; ROIC is left unquantified.
FY2027 analyst consensus was $88.05 billion of revenue and $32.38 of adjusted diluted EPS as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Higher sales can lift earnings if operating costs grow more slowly than revenue.
Capex increased from $1.60 billion in FY2023 to $1.99 billion in FY2024 and $2.82 billion in FY2025.
Returns from that spending must appear in revenue, margin, or lower unit costs.
| Revenue | $67,589,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $45,730,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $21,859,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $10,708,000,000 |
| Operating income | $11,151,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$2,278,000,000 |
| Net income | $8,873,000,000 |
| Total assets | $98,585,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $9,980,000,000 |
| Current assets | $52,485,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $77,267,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $36,558,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $21,318,000,000 |
| Net income | $8,873,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $11,739,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2,262,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $242,000,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $362,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $11,739,000,000 |
| Cash available | $18,635,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $6,896,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $4,707,000,000 |
| Capex | $2,821,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $1,886,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $3,899,000,000 |
| Net debt issuance | $4,130,000,000 |
| Share repurchases | $5,190,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $2,749,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $90,000,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $43,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $9,986,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$4,707,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$3,899,000,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by business category | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machinery Power Energy | $64B | 94.7% | 4.3% |
| Financial Products | $3.6B | 5.3% | 4.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by geography | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $36.6B | 54.2% | 6.4% |
| EMEA | $12.8B | 18.9% | 3.9% |
| Asia Pacific | $11.2B | 16.6% | -1.7% |
| Latin America | $7B | 10.3% | 4.2% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-08 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $38.5B | $3.7B | -$67M | $5.6B | $4.5B | $1.1B | $3B | $218M | $0 | $1.8B | — | -$1.8B | -$3.1B | — | $7.2B | $7.4B | $36.8B | 3.0% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $45.5B | $7.5B | $754M | $5.7B | $4.8B | $898M | $2.9B | $206M | $0 | $1.8B | — | -$966M | -$3.7B | $7.2B | $8.3B | $8.7B | $34.9B | 9.8% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $54.7B | $11B | $6.1B | $6.6B | $5.3B | $1.3B | $2.8B | $198M | $3.8B | $2B | — | -$3.2B | -$3.7B | $8.3B | $7.9B | $7.9B | $36.6B | 15.2% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $53.8B | $10.8B | $6.1B | $6.9B | $5.9B | $1.1B | $2.6B | $468M | $4B | $2.1B | — | -$1.9B | -$4.5B | $7.9B | $8.3B | $8.3B | $37.7B | 15.4% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $41.7B | $6.9B | $3B | $6.3B | $5.3B | $978M | $2.4B | $384M | $1.1B | $2.2B | — | -$1.5B | -$3.8B | $8.3B | $9.4B | $18.7B | $37.2B | 10.9% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $51B | $11B | $6.5B | $7.2B | $6.1B | $1.1B | $2.4B | -$833M | $2.7B | $2.3B | — | -$3.1B | -$4.2B | $9.4B | $9.3B | $10.2B | $37.8B | 13.5% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $59.4B | $11.4B | $6.7B | $7.8B | $6.5B | $1.3B | $2.2B | $193M | $4.2B | $2.4B | -$652M | -$2.5B | -$7.3B | $9.3B | $7B | $7B | $37B | 13.3% | — | 7.8% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $67.1B | $15.7B | $10.3B | $12.9B | $11.3B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $208M | $5B | $2.6B | $594M | -$5.9B | -$6.9B | $7B | $7B | $8.9B | $37.9B | 19.3% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $64.8B | $16B | $10.8B | $12B | $10B | $2B | $2.2B | $223M | $7.7B | $2.6B | $799M | -$2.5B | -$9.6B | $7B | $6.9B | $6.9B | $38.4B | 20.2% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $67.6B | $14.9B | $8.9B | $11.7B | $8.9B | $2.8B | $2.3B | $242M | $5.2B | $2.7B | $4.1B | -$4.7B | -$3.9B | $6.9B | $10B | $10B | $43.3B | 16.5% | — | 8.2% | — |
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) trades at 25.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 28.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 25.4x compares with a peer median of 24.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc., GE Aerospace and RTX Corporation, as of 2026-09-08.
| Trend | Impact | Note |
|---|
| Geographic demand dispersion | neutral | Revenue spans four disclosed regions, but North America remained the largest in FY2025. |
Caterpillar has broad regional exposure but remains concentrated in machinery, power and energy, making capital productivity and end demand the decisive cycle tests.5
| At or above $377.21 Potential value | Avoid entry and prioritize reduction on strength. | The accepted valuation range does not support new exposure at that level. |
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Limitation: Terminal value is 69% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
| PACCAR Inc. |
| 17.3x |
| 2.4x |
| 21.9x |
| 12.8% |
| 12.0% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 37.1x | 6.9x | 31.4x | 48.2% | 20.6% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 25.6x | 2.9x | 19.1x | 12.3% | 12.7% |
