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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CBOE — frequently asked questions
Is Cboe Global Markets, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, CBOE looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 271 versus our fair value of USD 306; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 398. That implies roughly 13.0% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives CBOE a fair value of USD 306 and a potential value of USD 398. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Cboe Global Markets, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CBOE now?
Our latest published rating for CBOE, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 271 versus fair value of USD 306; potential value is USD 398. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CBOE?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Cboe Global Markets, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CBOE's rating?
Our latest published rating for CBOE, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 306, the potential value of USD 398, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 271).
Accelerating institutional and retail adoption of short-dated (0DTE) index options driving sustained double-digit SPX and XSP volume growth, coupled with global expansion of proprietary Data Vantage subscriptions (where international clients represent over 50% of sales), which leverages fixed electronic exchange infrastructure to expand operating margins toward 33.0% and realize Potential value of $398.31.
Main risk
A sustained drop in consolidated revenue growth below 2.0% YoY, or an SPX/XSP contract volume decline exceeding 15% YoY, or order routing loss from the single wholesale counterparty that generates 10% ($480.0M in FY2025) of total revenue.
We rate Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) a Buy at $271.26 as of October 2, 2026, establishing a house Fair value of $306.41 that offers 12.96% implied upside and an 11.47% discount, alongside Potential value of $398.31, driven by proprietary index options volume growth and exceptional free cash flow generation.3
Our Buy rating signifies that Cboe Global Markets offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for investors seeking durable capital compounding from high-quality financial market infrastructure. For an ordinary equity investor, this decision reflects an entrenched competitive moat built on exclusive index options licensing and fixed electronic exchange architecture that translates sustained volume gains into expanding per-share earnings and high cash returns.
The shares closed at $271.26 on October 2, 2026. Our valuation framework establishes a house Fair value midpoint of $306.41, which places the report-date price at an 11.47% discount and provides 12.96% upside to intrinsic value. In our upside expansion path, where proprietary index contract adoption scales and operating margins expand toward peer medians, Cboe reaches a Potential value of $398.31 per share, offering 46.84% potential appreciation from current levels.3
The decisive risk that would invalidate our constructive thesis is a structural slump in equity derivative turnover compounded by wholesale client disintermediation. Cboe faces customer concentration risk, with a single wholesale participant contributing 10% ($480.0M) of FY2025 revenue, alongside cyclical exposure to retail trading fatigue in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) contracts. If retail engagement subsides or that primary clearing client reroutes order flow, consolidated top-line growth would drop below 2.0% YoY. Under that pressure, fixed corporate expenses of $838M to $853M and clearing buildout capex of $98M to $108M would compress operating margins below 28.0% toward historical cyclical lows.4,7
The primary operational driver enabling Cboe to compound intrinsic value is the formidable operating leverage of its proprietary index options franchise. Exclusive licensing rights for SPX and VIX contracts provide pricing power, while integration into low-cost retail broker interfaces has driven a 40% increase in SPX simple orders and nearly 75% growth in mini-SPX (XSP) trades. Because electronic transactions flow across existing matching engines with minimal marginal expense, incremental trading volume converts into high cash margins, generating $1,681.6M in free cash flow in FY2025 on $1,752.6M in operating cash flow. As this core options engine compounds alongside double-digit recurring data sales, per-share intrinsic value converges to Fair value of $306.41 and, in a favorable volume regime, moves toward Potential value of $398.31.4,5
Exclusive Multi-Decade Proprietary Index Licensing
Cboe maintains exclusive licensing agreements for cash-settled S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Volatility Index (VIX) options. This structural monopoly prevents competitors from offering fungible contracts, generating $2,433.6M in Options revenue and $1,113.3M in operating income at a 45.7% margin in FY2025.4,7
Rapid Retail Broker Adoption and Short-Dated Trading Velocity
Integration with zero-to-low-cost retail broker platforms has fueled surging participation in short-dated contracts, driving simple SPX order growth over 40% and mini-SPX (XSP) order growth of nearly 75%. This expands trading frequency and liquidity depth across market cycles.4
Superior Cash Flow Conversion via Electronic Scalability
House recommendation
Buy rating affirmed with a house Fair value of $306.41 per share against a share price of $271.26 as of October 2, 2026, reflecting an 11.47% discount and 12.96% implied upside, supported by wide proprietary derivative moats, robust cash conversion of $1,681.6M FCF, and Potential value of $398.31, conditioned on operating margins remaining above 28.0%.3,5
Company overview
Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) operates as a leading market infrastructure and financial derivatives exchange operator, providing trading execution, clearing, and market data solutions to retail investors, institutional asset managers, and proprietary liquidity providers globally. The company's core business is organized into five reportable segments: Options, North American Equities, Europe and Asia Pacific, Futures, and Global FX. In FY2025, Options served as the primary revenue engine, generating $2,433.6M (51.6% of consolidated revenue), followed by North American Equities with $1,672.3M, Europe and Asia Pacific with $378.6M, Futures with $135.9M, and Global FX with $93.8M.
A prolonged macroeconomic low-volatility equity regime would compress daily transaction turnover across Cboe's core proprietary derivatives franchise, reducing high-margin SPX and VIX contract volumes. If combined with a routing diversion from Cboe's primary wholesale clearing counterparty, which represented 10% ($480.0M) of consolidated FY2025 revenue, top-line growth would stall. Concurrently, elevated capital expenditures for proprietary clearing infrastructure ($98M-$108M guided in FY2026) would raise fixed overhead during a cyclical volume trough. Under this confluence, consolidated operating margins would compress toward historical trough levels (12.37% reported in FY2022), depressing free cash flow conversion and re-rating valuation multiples toward the low end of explicit cash flow models ($146.21 in ).
Cboe Global Markets commands a wide economic moat rooted in exclusive intellectual property licenses and self-reinforcing liquidity network effects across equity derivatives. The foundation of this moat rests on multi-decade exclusive agreements to list cash-settled options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the proprietary Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). Because regulatory and intellectual property protections prevent rival exchange operators from creating fungible cash-settled contracts on these benchmark indices, Cboe operates as an effective structural monopoly in core U.S. index derivative trading. In FY2025, the Options segment delivered $2,433.6M in revenue and $1,113.3M in operating income, accounting for 51.6% of Cboe's consolidated revenue of $4,714.2M and 75.9% of total operating income of $1,467.1M.
The value of this intellectual property is amplified by powerful liquidity network effects. Liquidity attracts liquidity: market makers quote the tightest bid-ask spreads where order flow is densest, which in turn draws institutional portfolio managers and retail platforms seeking optimal execution pricing. This feedback loop has intensified with the proliferation of same-day expiring (zero-DTE) contracts, where SPX simple orders grew over 40% and mini-SPX (XSP) contracts surged almost 75%. Because cash settlement eliminates the physical delivery complexities of equity shares, institutional market participants rely heavily on SPX options for capital-efficient risk management and systemic portfolio hedging.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($306.41). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.0B after modeled reinvestment of $90.9M, with terminal value at 81.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Upgrade the rating; Consider increasing position sizing toward the maximum target allocation while monitoring quarterly trading velocity and operating expense discipline.
Trigger: Proprietary index options volume growth accelerates above historical trends, operating expenses track at or below the guided range, and operating margins expand toward peer levels.
An earnings beat driven by volume outperformance in proprietary index contracts confirms operating leverage and reinforces the investment thesis, justifying an upgrade to the highest conviction band.
In-line
Maintain Buy; Maintain existing allocation and verify that electronic clearing buildout milestones and market data subscription growth remain on track.
Trigger: Core trading volume and operating revenue track within guided expectations, with expense discipline maintained and clearing capital expenditure within budgeted parameters.
Performance tracking in line with guidance confirms steady franchise compounding, validating the current valuation and investment stance.
Industry capital expenditure to revenue sits at 2.4% and industry capex to depreciation stands at 0.9 as of 2026-10-05. For Cboe, capital expenditures are guided to expand from $71.0M in FY2025 to $98M-$108M in FY2026 (an increase of 38.0% to 52.1%) to fund specialized clearing and electronic trading infrastructure.4,6
Bull cycle
An exchange and financial market infrastructure upcycle is characterized by heightened macroeconomic dispersion, elevated equity volatility, active portfolio rebalancing, and heavy retail market participation. Derivative contract volumes surge as institutional market participants expand hedging turnover in benchmark cash-settled contracts and retail traders aggressively adopt short-dated option strategies, driving substantial over fixed electronic matching engines.
§11 Position management
Sizing
3-5%
A recommended position weight of 3-5% reflects high conviction in Cboe's Wide economic moat, proprietary SPX/VIX licensing franchise, and 12.96% upside to Fair value of $306.41, balanced against wholesale customer concentration (10% of revenue) and near-term clearing capex investments ($98M-$108M).4,7
Risk
Maintain disciplined position limits with strict adherence to the 3-5% portfolio allocation ceiling. Closely monitor quarterly volume disclosures in SPX and VIX contracts, tracking whether retail engagement in short-dated options remains durable. Check clearing capital expenditure run-rates against and monitor wholesale counterparty contributions. In the event of a broad collapse or structural regulatory shift impacting retail derivative , enforce the $218.00 stop-loss boundary to protect portfolio capital.
§12 Investor perspectives
Quality Compounder Investor
Buy
Cboe offers an exceptional combination of wide economic moats, proprietary index IP, and superior cash generation, evidenced by $1,681.6M in FY2025 free cash flow on $1,752.6M in operating cash flow. At an 11.47% discount to Fair value ($306.41), the stock is an attractive buy for long-term compounders.4,5,6
Tactical Growth Investor
Buy
Surging retail engagement in short-dated options, where SPX simple orders grew over 40% and XSP orders surged almost 75%, provides powerful volume momentum. Coupled with management guiding 2026 organic net revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens, tactical upside toward Potential value of $398.31 is compelling.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Buy
We recommend purchasing shares of Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) at $271.26 as of October 2, 2026, with a house Fair value target of $306.41 representing 12.96% implied upside and an 11.47% discount, supported by Potential value of $398.31. The company's exclusive proprietary index options franchise (SPX and VIX), combined with rapid retail adoption of short-dated contracts and scalable electronic execution, provides exceptional cash conversion ($1,681.6M FCF in FY2025) and high return on invested capital.3,4,5
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Fixed electronic trading architecture ensures volume growth incurs negligible marginal cost. Cboe generated $1,681.6M in free cash flow on $1,752.6M in operating cash flow in FY2025, providing strong organic cash generation while absorbing guided clearing capex of $98M-$108M.4,5,6
The cornerstone of Cboe's commercial advantage is its exclusive proprietary licensing agreements to list cash-settled index options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). These proprietary contracts cannot be traded on competing venues, creating deep liquidity pools and network effects that drive substantial trading turnover. Beyond transaction execution, Cboe monetizes proprietary market data and access services across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific via its Data Vantage offerings, where over 50% of market data sales originate from international customers. In FY2025, a single wholesale clearing customer accounted for approximately 10% ($480.0M) of consolidated revenues across its operating segments.
The Bear case evaluates a prolonged low-volatility equity regime combined with retail fatigue in short-dated index derivatives and order routing shifts from Cboe's primary 10% clearing customer. Top-line revenue growth slows toward 2.5% while elevated clearing infrastructure capex ($98M-$108M) compresses operating margins toward 28.5%.
Ways this thesis can break
Extended equity volatility collapse and retail 0DTE trading fatigue
During suppressed equity volatility regimes, Cboe's operating profitability contracts sharply, as demonstrated by FY2022 net income of $235.0M and reported operating margin falling to 12.37%. A retail pullback in short-dated SPX/XSP options would compress operating margin below 28.0%, producing an estimated fair value impact of -23.5%.3,4
FV impact
-2.7%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Disintermediation and routing loss from primary 10% clearing counterparty
A single wholesale customer accounts for approximately 10% ($480.0M in FY2025) of total company revenue across Options, Equities, FX, and Futures. If this client re-routes order flow to competing venues or internalizes matching, top-line revenue growth would fall below 2.0% YoY, driving an estimated fair value impact of -28.0%.7
FV impact
-5.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Contraction of operating margin below 28.0% indicates that high-margin SPX and VIX contract volumes are decelerating or pass-through routing expenses are expanding, falsifying the core operating leverage thesis.
Revenue contribution from the principal wholesale customer dropping below 5.0% indicates that order routing has defected to competing venues or internalized matching, impairing multi-segment transaction fees.
Complementing its proprietary derivatives engine, Cboe has expanded its recurring non-transaction revenue footprint through Data Vantage market data subscriptions and cross-asset clearing infrastructure. Over 50% of market data sales now originate from clients outside the United States, embedding proprietary index pricing feeds into institutional trading infrastructure globally. Supported by scalable electronic execution architecture where incremental volume carries minimal marginal expense, Cboe achieves exceptional free cash flow generation ($1,681.6M in FY2025) and a durable return on invested capital of 17.28%, comfortably exceeding its 7.7913% cost of capital.
Cboe's return on invested capital of 17.28% substantially exceeds its computed weighted average cost of capital of 7.7913% and computed cost of equity of 7.9968%. This spread of approximately 949 basis points confirms sustainable economic value creation supported by fixed electronic exchange infrastructure and high free cash flow conversion ($1,681.6M FCF in FY2025).1,5
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Exclusive proprietary intellectual property licenses — Exclusive licensing agreements with S&P Dow Jones Indices for SPX options and proprietary VIX index IP create an enduring legal monopoly where competing exchanges cannot list fungible cash-settled contracts. In FY2025, Options generated $2,433.6M in revenue and $1,113.3M in operating income, representing 51.6% of Cboe's consolidated revenue of $4,714.2M.Wide
02Two-sided liquidity network effects — Deep order books and concentrated liquidity in benchmark cash-settled index contracts attract both retail broker platforms and institutional risk managers, creating self-reinforcing liquidity where tighter bid-ask spreads drive higher order flow. SPX simple orders grew over 40% and XSP orders surged almost 75% year-over-year, with consolidated SPX options volume up 40% year-over-year.Wide
03Clearing infrastructure and workflow integration — Deep integration into retail broker execution routing and clearing workflows creates high switching barriers for retail and institutional traders, while proprietary Data Vantage subscriptions embed exchange market data into institutional workflows globally, with over 50% of data revenue originating outside the United States.Moderate
Emergence of alternative derivative structures such as continuous futures and retail prediction contracts siphoning speculative retail flow
medium
12-24 months
Proprietary SPX and VIX contracts provide non-linear asymmetric payoff structures and institutional capital offsets that linear products cannot duplicate; Cboe is also developing complementary event contracts.4
Wholesale counterparty concentration and order routing shifts from top 10% clearing client
medium
12-18 months
Broad multi-broker distribution across retail platforms and development of proprietary clearing capabilities integrated alongside OCC connectivity reduce single-broker vulnerability.4
Multi-listed contract fee compression and cash equities margin dilution from competitive venue pricing
low
24-36 months
High-margin proprietary index options generate the dominant share of operating profit ($1,113.3M in FY2025), insulating Cboe from low-margin competitive pressure in cash equities.7
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
The Base case models Cboe's modal compounding path where exclusive proprietary index options sustain solid mid-single-digit consolidated revenue growth (scaling from 7.0% down to 4.5% across the forecast horizon). Operating margins normalize between 31.5% and 33.0% as corporate cost discipline ($838M-$853M guided operating expenses) absorbs elevated clearing capex of $98M-$108M. Synthesized intrinsic fair value is $306.41, offering 12.96% upside from the share price of $271.26 as of October 2, 2026.3,4
Operating margins expand toward 34.5% to 35.0% driven by technology clearing scale and strategic realignment savings4
Terminal P/E multiple expands to 22.0x reflecting premium information and derivative franchise value
In the Bull case, structural adoption of zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) index options accelerates among retail and institutional market participants, driving sustained double-digit SPX and VIX contract volume growth. International expansion of Data Vantage subscriptions continues to generate rapid non-transaction revenue gains, while operational leverage and completed clearing capabilities expand operating margins toward peer medians. Fair value in this path reaches $398.31.
Miss
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental capital deployment and review trading turnover to distinguish between cyclical volatility lulls and permanent wholesale counterparty disintermediation.
Trigger: Average daily volume in proprietary index contracts contracts significantly, or operating margin declines below normalized levels due to elevated infrastructure outlays or wholesale volume loss.
A material earnings miss resulting from proprietary volume contraction or counterparty routing losses would impair medium-term operating margins and diminish intrinsic return expectations.
Earnings quality is exceptionally strong, underpinned by a cash-settled electronic exchange structure where reported net income converts rapidly into operating cash flow without inventory, working capital drag, or aggressive revenue accruals. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, reflecting high cash conversion and fixed-cost scalability.
Estimate momentum
Consensus estimate momentum has remained steady post-earnings, as sell-side analysts reflect strong proprietary options volume execution balanced against reaffirmed operating expense and capital expenditureguidance.
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Proprietary Index Options Volume Growth
CurrentExperiencing strong demand driven by retail broker connectivity and institutional hedging activity in same-day expiring contracts.
CurrentTracking within updated full-year guidance as technology infrastructure buildout proceeds alongside existing clearing house connectivity.
Why it matters
Capital deployment for proprietary clearing elevates near-term capital intensity before delivering cross-asset operational efficiencies and risk offsets.
Cboe's cash conversion capabilities are exceptional. In FY2025, the company generated $1,752.6M in cash flow from operations and spent $71.0M on capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $1,681.6M. Free cash flow conversion exceeded 150% of net income ($1,100.0M), reflecting high electronic platform operating efficiency, minimal working capital requirements, and modest capital reinvestment needs.5,6
Cboe maintains a balanced capital allocation program anchored by low balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $1,580.3M as of 2026-10-05 represents a conservative debt weight of 5.28% against market capitalization of $28,328.0M. Capital returns are dominated by ongoing opportunistic share repurchases complemented by a regular cash dividend. Organic capital investments are targeted toward high-return clearing capabilities ($98M-$108M guided in FY2026), fully funded from internally generated cash flow.
ROIC of 17.28% reflects exceptional capital efficiency and high profitability generated by electronic execution of proprietary index contracts. As proprietary volumes expand and strategic realignment actions deliver $40M-$50M in annualized expense savings, returns on invested capital will continue to trend higher.
Cboe's ROIC of 17.28% substantially exceeds its computed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.7913% and computed cost of equity of 7.9968%, delivering an economic profit spread of approximately 949 basis points above WACC.
Proprietary Options Franchise Drives More Than Half of Revenue and Dominates Operating Profit
In FY2025, the Options segment delivered $2,433.6M in revenue and $1,113.3M in operating income, achieving a 45.7% operating margin and contributing 75.9% of consolidated operating profit of $1,467.1M.
Incremental volume in exclusive SPX and VIX contracts carries minimal marginal cost, enabling strong operating leverage to flow directly into corporate earnings.
Cash Conversion is Exceptionally High Despite Near-Term Clearing Infrastructure Investments
Cboe generated $1,752.6M in operating cash flow and $1,681.6M in free cash flow in FY2025 against capex of $71.0M. Even with FY2026 capex guided to increase to $98M-$108M, the reinvestment rate remains modest at 8.0% of NOPAT.
High cash conversion (95.9% of operating cash flow) provides ample financial flexibility to self-fund clearing technology, service total debt of $1,580.3M, and execute share repurchases.
A single wholesale customer accounted for approximately 10% of total revenue ($480.0M in FY2025, $403.1M in FY2024, and $389.4M in FY2023) across Options, North American Equities, Europe/APAC, FX, and Futures.
Although multi-segment distribution provides operational diversification, any material change in this participant's order routing or internal matching would immediately shave up to $480.0M from gross revenue.
Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) trades at 21.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.3x compares with a peer median of 19.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: MSCI Inc., Nasdaq Inc., Moody's Corporation and S&P Global Inc., as of 2026-10-05.
An industry downcycle occurs during extended macroeconomic regimes of suppressed equity market volatility. In these periods, institutional hedging demand moderates, retail speculative trading velocity declines, and exchange operators experience contracting average daily volume in high-margin proprietary index derivatives. Top-line revenue growth stalls, while price competition in multi-listed contracts and cash equities compresses segment operating profitability.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Structural growth in short-dated (0DTE) retail and institutional index option trading
positive
The rapid adoption of same-day expiring index options provides flexible hedging and trading expression, driving SPX simple orders up over 40% and XSP orders up almost 75%, with consolidated SPX volume expanding 40% year-over-year.
Global consumption and internationalization of proprietary financial market data
positive
Expansion of global institutional demand for real-time market data across European and Asian trading sessions, with over 50% of Cboe's market data sales generated from clients outside the United States, supporting low-teens organic growth in Data Vantage.
Rise of alternative derivative platforms, perpetual futures, and prediction markets
neutral
Emergence of continuous 24/7 futures and event contracts creates peripheral competition for speculative retail attention, though index options maintain distinct asymmetric payoff and capital efficiency advantages.
Positioning
Cboe occupies a privileged structural position within the market infrastructure cycle due to its monopoly over SPX and VIX contract listings. While cash equity venues face aggressive fee compression and fragmentation, Cboe's proprietary derivatives generate robust two-sided liquidity that shields its core transaction economics from commoditization, allowing it to compound returns through both volatile and quiet market environments.
The share price of $271.26 as of October 2, 2026 offers an 11.47% discount to synthesized Fair value of $306.41, providing an attractive entry for a wide-moat compounder.
$245.00 - $255.00
Add to position on cyclical pullbacks
A temporary pullback during low-volatility regimes or market consolidations widens the margin of safety above 17%, well below 50-day ($287.69) and 200-day ($287.10) moving averages.
Below $230.00
Maximum accumulation
Valuation approaching the 52-week low ($227.15) represents an exceptional discount (>25%) to intrinsic fair value, approaching normalized owner earnings valuation ($212.71).
Exit tranches
Level
Action
$306.41
Trim 25% of position to realize initial gains at intrinsic Fair value.
$350.00
Trim an additional 35% of position as valuation approaches sell-side consensus target high of $354.00.
Reassess the proprietary derivatives growth pillar; trim position if volume deceleration is driven by structural share loss rather than seasonal volatility quiet.
Investigate whether customer flow was lost to internalization or competing venues; reduce position weight if counterparty routing defected permanently.
Evaluate whether fixed-cost operating leverage has deteriorated; downgrade conviction and reduce exposure if margin erosion stems from permanent cost escalation.
Review customer routing agreements and assess wholesale counterparty health; trim position if growth deceleration reflects permanent structural disintermediation.
Trading at a forward P/E of 21.93x, Cboe trades at an attractive valuation relative to information peers like Moody's at 23.32x and MSCI at 23.83x. With low capital intensity ($71.0M capex in FY2025) and high cash return capacity, total return expectations are firmly supported.2,3,6
While wholesale customer concentration (10% of revenue from one counterparty) and near-term clearing capex investments ($98M-$108M in FY2026) require disciplined monitoring, Cboe's fixed-cost electronic leverage and expansion in recurring international data subscriptions (over 50% non-US) support long-term compounding. Investors should maintain position discipline with an operating margin checkpoint at 28.0%.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($46.90) plus discounted terminal value ($209) minus signed net debt per current share (-$7.75) equals the $264 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
