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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CHRW — frequently asked questions
Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-12, CHRW looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 139 versus our fair value of USD 102; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 126. That implies roughly 26.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-12, gives CHRW a fair value of USD 102 and a potential value of USD 126. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CHRW now?
Our latest published rating for CHRW, analyzed 2026-10-12, is Sell. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 139 versus fair value of USD 102; potential value is USD 126. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CHRW?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-12 documents C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CHRW's rating?
Our latest published rating for CHRW, analyzed 2026-10-12, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 102, the potential value of USD 126, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 139).
Accelerated enterprise-wide adoption of custom Lean AI multi-agent workflows across the quote-to-cash lifecycle, enabling CHRW to permanently reduce its cost to serve per load, drive NAST adjusted operating margins above 42%, and capture outsized market share as North American freight volumes inflect.
Main risk
Surge in spot truckload linehaul purchase costs exceeding 30% YoY while customer contractual rates lag by more than 400 basis points.
C.H. Although Lean AI automation is expanding operating margins within a trough freight cycle, the market's forward P/E multiple of 21.51x represents an extreme premium to logistics peers and leaves no cushion for ongoing linehaul cost inflation.3
The house investment committee maintains a Sell rating on C.H. With shares trading at $138.97, the stock commands an unwarranted 35.9% premium to intrinsic value, implying a -26.4% expected return. The market is pricing CHRW at 21.51x forward earnings, a stark valuation disconnect compared to diversified transportation peers such as FedEx trading at 14.00x and United Parcel Service trading at 11.70x.3
Operationally, C.H. Robinson demonstrated disciplined execution in Q2 2026, delivering total revenue of $4,934.10M (+19.3% YoY) and adjusted operating income of $263.23M (+19.5% YoY). Lean AI productivity gains enabled consolidated headcount to fall 10.8% YoY while NAST volume grew 1.5% YoY, outperforming the Cass Freight Shipment Index (-3.3% YoY) for the 13th consecutive quarter. However, capacity contraction drove truckload linehaul cost per mile up 29.0% YoY while customer rates increased only 25.5% YoY, resulting in a 170 bps compression in NAST adjusted gross profit margin to 13.1%.4
Underlying cash generation has diverged sharply from accounting earnings. Cash flow from operations dropped by $191.2M YoY to just $35.9M in Q2 2026 due to a $196.4M sequential expansion in net operating working capital, driven by bloated receivables as freight rates rose. Despite generating only $17.7M in quarterly free cash flow, the company returned $301.3M to shareholders, including $226.0M in share buybacks executed at an average price of $166.89 —far above intrinsic value. With freight demand remaining in a 15-quarter contraction, capital allocation is amplifying downside risk.
Proprietary multi-agent workflows have driven over 60% cumulative productivity improvements since 2022, enabling Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin expansion of 360 bps to 34.7% while average headcount fell 10.8% YoY.
Consistent Market Share Outgrowth in NAST
NAST truckload and LTL volumes grew 1.5% YoY in Q2 2026, representing the 13th consecutive quarter of volume outgrowth against the declining Cass Freight Shipment Index.
Capital Return Commitment and Dividend Track Record
The company maintains over 25 consecutive years of annual dividend increases ($2.52 per share annualized) and returned $301.3M to shareholders in Q2 2026 via buybacks and dividends.
House recommendation
The investment committee's Sell rating is supported by a 35.9% market price premium over our mid-case intrinsic fair value of $102.26. While internal Lean AI productivity tools are driving admirable headcount rationalization and mid-cycle operating margin targets in a freight trough, CHRW's market valuation at 21.51x forward P/E leaves the equity highly exposed to linehaul cost inflation, macro volume stagnation, and valuation convergence toward transportation sector peers.3
Company overview
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (Nasdaq: CHRW) is a premier global logistics provider and the largest freight broker in North America, managing 37 million shipments annually representing $23 billion in freight under management. Founded in 1905 and headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, the company operates an asset-light business model connecting approximately 75,000 commercial shippers with a network of 450,000 contracted carriers across truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), ocean, air, and customs brokerage services.
The company operates primarily through two reporting segments: North American Surface Transportation (NAST), which generated $11,562.71M in revenue and $621.84M in operating income in FY2025, and Global Forwarding, which generated $3,090.02M in revenue and $183.78M in operating income in FY2025. Additional operations include Robinson Fresh and Managed Solutions, with domestic operations accounting for $14,339.49M (88.3%) of FY2025 consolidated revenues.
A rigorous stress test evaluates the convergence of a 30%+ spot linehaul spike alongside prolonged freight demand contraction. When purchased transportation costs surge rapidly, CHRW's contractual book (70% of truckload volume) suffers from repricing lag, causing NAST adjusted gross profit margins to compress below 12.0%. Compounding this, higher freight billing inflates accounts receivable balances, driving working capital absorption that severely impairs free cash flow conversion—as witnessed in Q2 2026 when net operating working capital expanded by $196.4M and slashed quarterly operating cash flow to $35.9M. Under these stress conditions, annual operating income drops below $550M and equity valuation collapses toward the lower bound of our fair value range at $83.16.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide possesses a Narrow competitive moat derived from its extensive two-sided freight brokerage network and digital platform integration. As North America's largest freight broker managing $23B in freight across 37 million shipments annually, the company provides liquidity that smaller competitors cannot replicate. Shippers benefit from dependable capacity across 450,000 contracted carriers, while fragmented truckers rely on Robinson to secure consistent loads and minimize non-revenue empty miles. This density creates routing guide depth (1.4 in Managed Solutions), which insulates the franchise during freight volume dislocations.
To reinforce this network advantage, C.H. Robinson has developed proprietary Lean AI agent fleets that automate previously manual lifecycle workflows across quoting, tracking, appointments, and carrier payments. This technology has driven cumulative productivity gains of more than 60% since late 2022, enabling average consolidated headcount to decline 10.8% YoY in Q2 2026 while transaction volumes grew. Furthermore, the company's multimodal presence—integrating truckload, LTL, customs, air, and ocean forwarding—creates operational stickiness; over half of corporate revenues originate from clients utilizing both surface transportation and global forwarding services.
Despite these structural advantages, the moat is strictly bounded as Narrow rather than Wide due to the low switching costs inherent in non-asset third-party logistics. Shippers frequently multi-home across several broker platforms and digital freight marketplaces. Moreover, broker remain highly vulnerable to sudden increases in spot purchase costs when contractual agreements prevent immediate pass-through, as witnessed in Q2 2026 when truckload linehaul costs jumped 29.0% against rate gains of 25.5%. Consequently, while C.H. Robinson generates excess economic returns on capital, its is cyclical rather than permanent.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($102.26). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $712.2M after modeled reinvestment of $79.1M, with terminal value at 75.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
The Cass Freight Shipment Index declined 3.3% YoY in Q2 2026, marking 15 consecutive quarters of demand contraction. In response to prolonged freight rate suppression, smaller carrier capacity has steadily exited the market, precipitating a 29.0% YoY spike in truckload linehaul spot costs.4
Bull cycle
In an industry upcycle, industrial production and consumer retail inventory restocking drive strong shipment demand across North American supply chains. Volume acceleration expands load counts while routing guide depth widens, enabling freight brokers to secure wide spreads on transactional spot loads. Customer contracts reprice higher, and operating leverage from automated Lean AI workflows flows directly into double-digit operating margin expansion.
Bear cycle
In an industry downcycle, excess carrier supply initially depresses freight rates across modes, followed by sluggish demand where shipment volumes stagnate for years. As high carrier operating costs force capacity out, spot purchase rates spike unexpectedly while shippers resist rate increases, squeezing broker gross profits per load. Working capital requirements expand as gross revenues rise with pass-through costs, depleting cash flow conversion.
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
A zero-weight allocation is recommended. Trading at $138.97, CHRW is 35.9% overvalued relative to our mid-case intrinsic fair value of $102.26. The combination of a 21.51x forward P/E multiple, contract gross margin pressure from surging spot linehaul costs, and severe working capital cash drain ($35.9M Q2 operating cash flow) creates compelling rationale to eliminate exposure.3,4
Risk
Rigorous portfolio risk management dictates divesting from asset-light logistics brokers when valuation multiples detach from underlying freight market cash generation. With receivables expanding significantly during rate inflation cycles ($3,055.15M as of June 30, 2026), liquidity is constrained precisely when spot capacity costs surge. Eliminating long exposure protects portfolio capital from inevitable toward transportation peers.
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Avoid
CHRW trades at 21.51x forward earnings, commanding an excessive premium over logistics comparables FedEx (14.00x) and UPS (11.70x), offering negative margin of safety against intrinsic fair value of $102.26.3
Dividend & Income Investor
Avoid
Despite a 25-year history of annual dividend increases, the dividend yield is modest at ~1.8% ($2.52 per share) and Q2 2026 operating cash flow collapsed to $35.9M, raising concerns regarding cash coverage during freight rate inflation cycles.
Growth & Momentum Investor
Avoid
While consensus estimate revisions have ticked modestly upward, top-line growth is constrained by a 15-quarter freight demand contraction, and current multiples leave the stock vulnerable to any operational stumble.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
We recommend a Sell rating on C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW). At the October 12, 2026 share price of $138.97, the equity trades at an unwarranted 35.9% premium to our mid-case intrinsic fair value of $102.26, implying -26.4% downside return. While management's Lean AI initiatives are delivering impressive operational efficiency gains, the stock's 21.51x forward P/E multiple represents an extreme disconnect from logistics peers and fully prices in an aggressive cycle rebound.3
Investors should capitalize on current elevated prices to liquidate long holdings. Fundamental risks remain acute: Q2 2026 truckload linehaul costs surged 29% YoY while customer pricing rose only 25.5% YoY, and quarterly operating cash flow collapsed to $35.9M due to a $196.4M working capital build. With the Cass Freight Index contracting for 15 consecutive quarters, the current valuation provides zero margin of safety.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-12 · Published 2026-10-12 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 3 figuresCited in Bear case, Earnings decision tree
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-10-12 · Published 2026-10-12 · cited for 3 figuresCited in Competitive moat, Financial history
The Bear scenario models an intensification of cyclical headwinds where freight volume contraction persists alongside unchecked carrier linehaul cost surges. Fixed contractual commitments trap CHRW in negative spread transactions, crushing operating profit. Persistent working capital bloat curbs cash flow, forcing reductions in shareholder capital returns, while the market multiple de-rates toward transportation sector averages.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe Linehaul Rate Spike and Contract Gross Margin Squeeze
In Q2 2026, truckload linehaul cost per mile rose 29% YoY while customer linehaul rates charged rose only 25.5%, during a market where Cass Freight shipments declined 3.3% YoY. If spot linehaul costs surge over 30% without contract repricing flexibility, consolidated operating margin falls by 300 bps to trough levels (~2.5%), creating an estimated -28.5% fair value impact.4
FV impact
-11.3%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Protracted Freight Demand Recession and Volume Deflation
The Cass Freight Shipment Index has contracted for 15 consecutive quarters through Q2 2026. If freight recession persists and volumes decline rather than expand toward the consensus 13.2% FY2026 estimate, revenue growth drops below 0% YoY, driving multi-year top-line stagnation and an estimated -22% fair value impact.1
FV impact
-6.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
CHRW currently trades at 21.51x forward P/E. Broad logistics comparables trade at significant discounts: FDX trades at 14.00x and UPS trades at 11.70x. A multiple de-rating below 14.0x compresses terminal equity value significantly, implying a -24% fair value impact.3
FV impact
-8.5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
01
Truckload Linehaul Cost vs Price Growth Spread
Indicates severe gross profit per load compression in the contractual portfolio and inability to pass through spot carrier rate spikes.
Current:+350 bps cost inflation excess (cost +29.0% vs price +25.5% YoY in Q2 2026)
Alert if> 500 bps cost inflation excess over pricing
02
Cass Freight Shipment Index YoY Change
Signals deepening North American freight recession that overpowers CHRW market share gains and halts volume growth.
Current:-3.3% YoY in Q2 2026 (15th consecutive quarter of contraction)
C.H. Robinson has historically achieved high accounting returns on equity (37.1% base ROE) and an ROIC of 19.71%, comfortably above its computed WACC of 8.71%. However, because the business is asset-light with minimal invested tangible capital (FY2025 capex was just $19.63M), economic value added fluctuates heavily with freight cycle spreads between carrier spot procurement rates and contractual shipper billing.2,6
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Two-Sided Brokerage Network Scale and Carrier Liquidity — Scale connecting 75,000 customers and 450,000 carriers across 37 million shipments annually ($23B freight under management) provides unmatched matching density, reducing empty miles for carriers and securing capacity for shippers.Wide
02Proprietary Lean AI Workflow Automation Platform — Deployment of specialized AI agents across quoting, order entry, tracking, appointment scheduling, and carrier payments has driven cumulative productivity improvements of >60% since 2022, enabling supply chain diagnostics in 25-30 minutes.Moderate
03Multimodal Routing Depth and Cross-Service Integration — Over 50% of total revenue is generated from customers utilizing both surface transportation and global forwarding services, supported by dual scale in truckload and LTL that allows dynamic cross-modal optimization.Moderate
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
The Base scenario represents the modal expected trajectory, generating our mid-case intrinsic fair value of $102.26. Here, freight demand remains subdued through late FY2026 before recovering gradually. Lean AI efficiencies permanently reduce administrative overhead, but carrier linehaul inflation prevents gross margin expansion beyond baseline operating margins. At $138.97, the stock trades at an unwarranted premium to intrinsic value, offering an expected return of -26.4%.
Freight demand stages an accelerated cyclical inflection, driving robust consolidated revenue acceleration across FY2026 and FY2027.
Contractual rate increases successfully catch up with carrier linehaul costs, driving substantial NAST gross profit margin expansion.
Lean AI multi-agent workflows maintain headcount discipline, driving consolidated operating margin toward cycle-peak levels by FY2028.
Working capital requirements normalize as freight rates stabilize, lifting free cash flow conversion toward historical peak levels.
Under the Bull scenario, North American freight demand stages a sharp recovery as industrial inventory restocking rebounds. Shippers accept substantial contractual rate increases, eliminating the margin squeeze and allowing CHRW to capture peak transactional brokerage spreads. Operating leverage from Lean AI agents expands operating margins well beyond historical mid-cycle targets, while normalized working capital restores strong cash conversion.
Validates baseline expectations of cyclical cost pressures and extended market overvaluation, leaving the Sell rating intact.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Accelerate liquidation of residual positions and monitor debt covenant headroom.
Trigger: Quarterly adjusted diluted EPS falling short of consensus with NAST AGP margin contracting further and negative operating cash flow from continued working capital absorption.
Earnings quality in Q2 FY2026 presents a sharp dichotomy between reported accounting operating profits and underlying cash generation. On an operating basis, results appeared robust as operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share expanded year-over-year, supported by restructuring discipline and personnel cost reductions. However, operating cash flow generation collapsed sharply, converting only a modest fraction of reported net income into cash. This divergence was driven by a substantial sequential expansion in net operating working capital as rising gross freight rates inflated customer accounts receivable faster than collections, signaling that reported accounting profits are temporarily decoupled from distributable free cash flow until working capital requirements normalize.
Estimate momentum
Consensus estimate momentum has been positive following Q2 2026 earnings. Post-event consensus EPS for FY2026 rose +0.65% to $6.30 (consensus $6.28), while FY2027 consensus EPS edged up +0.42% to $7.48 (consensus $7.48). Revenue revisions showed stronger momentum, with FY2026 consensus increasing +6.28% to $18.37B. While sell-side estimates reflect enthusiasm for Lean AI execution, they understate the working capital burden and valuation risk embedded in a 21.51x forward P/E multiple.1,3
C.H. Robinson's cash flow dynamics demonstrate extreme cyclical sensitivity to freight pricing. In FY2025, the company generated $914.52M in operating cash flow and $894.89M in free cash flow on capex of $19.63M. In sharp contrast, Q2 2026 operating cash flow collapsed to $35.9M (down from $227.1M in Q2 2025). This $191.2M reduction stemmed from a $196.4M sequential expansion in net operating working capital, as surging freight rates bloated customer receivables ($3,055.15M as of June 30, 2026 vs $2,360.83M at year-end 2025). Consequently, Q2 2026 free cash flow fell to just $17.7M after $18.2M of capex, highlighting the cash drain that accompanies rising freight rates.
Capital allocation in Q2 2026 was heavily focused on shareholder distributions, totaling $301.3M ($226.0M in share repurchases and $75.3M in dividends). The company repurchased 1.35 million shares at an average price of $166.89—a significant premium to the October 12, 2026 share price of $138.97 and our mid-case fair value of $102.26, representing suboptimal capital deployment. Capital expenditures remain disciplined, with FY2026 guidance maintained at $65M-$75M. Additionally, CHRW deployed $78.9M for M&A, primarily acquiring DeSpir Logistics. Total debt stood at $1,972.57M as of October 2026 ($1,685.02M long-term debt as of June 30, 2026).
Operating profitability has shown notable cyclical recovery, with adjusted operating margin excluding restructuring expanding 390 bps YoY to 35.7% of adjusted gross profit in Q2 2026 (NAST at 40.9% and Global Forwarding at 33.4%). Because the business requires minimal physical capex ($19.63M in FY2025 and $18.2M in Q2 2026), reported ROE reaches 37.1% and ROIC stands at 19.71%. However, cash conversion is highly variable due to working capital swings.
Current ROIC of 19.71% exceeds the computed WACC of 8.71% by 1,100 basis points, reflecting the asset-light capital structure of the enterprise.
Lean AI agents have driven structural headcount decoupling, expanding operating leverage.
Consolidated average employee headcount declined 10.8% YoY in Q2 2026 (NAST down 11.6% and Global Forwarding down 16.6%) even as NAST volumes expanded 1.5% YoY, driving adjusted operating income up 19.5% YoY to $263.23M.
Operating leverage expands when volumes recover, but in a volume-constrained environment, cost cuts cannot fully offset gross margin compression.
Truckload linehaul cost per mile surged 29.0% YoY in Q2 2026 against customer rate increases of 25.5% YoY, leading to a 170 bps compression in NAST adjusted gross profit margin to 13.1%.
Gross profit dollar growth remains dependent on rapid contract portfolio repricing and higher transactional spot freight participation.
Operating cash flow fell by $191.2M YoY to $35.9M in Q2 2026 as net operating working capital expanded by $196.4M sequentially to fund rising receivables.
Free cash flow conversion decouples from net income during rate inflation periods, limiting liquidity for share repurchases and balance sheet deleveraging.
Income statement breakdownHow business scale converts into reported profit.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Revenue$16.2BCost of revenue−$14.9BGross profit$1.4BOperating expenses−$564.3MOperating income$795MNon-operating items and tax−$207.9MNet income$587.1M
Financial history data
Revenue
$16,232,763,000
Cost of revenue
$14,873,511,000
Gross profit
$1,359,252,000
Operating expenses
$564,291,000
Operating income
$794,961,000
Non-operating items and tax
-$207,880,000
Net income
$587,081,000
Balance sheet snapshotHow reported assets are held and financed at the selected period.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Assets held asFinanced by
Total assets$5.1BCash$160.9MCurrent assets$2.8BTotal liabilities$3.2BCurrent liabilities$1.8BShareholders’ equity$1.8B
Balance sheet breakdown data
Total assets
$5,058,381,000
Cash
$160,871,000
Current assets
$2,798,543,000
Total liabilities
$3,212,734,000
Current liabilities
$1,831,702,000
Shareholders’ equity
$1,845,647,000
Cash-flow statement breakdownHow cash moved through operating, investing, and financing activities in FY2023.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Operating cash reconciliation
Net income$325.1MDepreciation and amortization+$99MStock-based compensation+$58.2MOther operating adjustments+$249.7MOperating cash flow$731.9M
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW) trades at 21.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 19.8x compares with a peer median of 11.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: FedEx Corporation, United Parcel Service Inc., Nordson Corporation and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., as of 2026-10-12.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
AI Automation of Logistics Quote-to-Cash Lifecycle
positive
Autonomous multi-agent architectures automate quotation, load matching, order creation, and carrier payments, permanently decoupling headcount growth from transaction volumes.
Supply Chain Regionalization and Multimodal Reconfiguration
positive
Nearshoring trends and Mexico-US-Canada trade growth reward integrated logistics platforms capable of managing customs, cross-border trucking, and LTL consolidation.
Persistent Freight Demand Lull and Structural Freight Market Slump
negative
Fifteen consecutive quarters of volume declines in national freight shipment indices reflect subdued industrial freight demand, constraining organic top-line expansion.
Positioning
C.H. Robinson occupies the premier position in North American surface logistics, managing 37 million shipments annually across a network of 450,000 contracted carriers. In Q2 2026, NAST delivered its 13th consecutive quarter of volume market outgrowth (+1.5% YoY vs Cass Index -3.3% YoY). Despite this structural scale advantage, CHRW's asset-light model remains fundamentally cyclical, requiring constant contractual repricing discipline to withstand carrier spot cost inflation.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($25.88) plus discounted terminal value ($79.61) minus signed net debt per current share ($7.96) equals the $97.52 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
