With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
DE — frequently asked questions
Is Deere & Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, DE looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 685 versus our fair value of USD 268; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 330. That implies roughly 60.9% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives DE a fair value of USD 268 and a potential value of USD 330. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Deere & Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy DE now?
Our latest published rating for DE, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell. Deere & Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 685 versus fair value of USD 268; potential value is USD 330. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for DE?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents Deere & Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is DE's rating?
Our latest published rating for DE, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 8/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 268, the potential value of USD 330, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 685).
Accelerated grower adoption of precision agriculture telematics and autonomy drives higher equipment pricing realization and software subscription attach rates, supporting operating margin expansion above 18% as fleet replacement inflects.
Main risk
Depressed agricultural crop commodity prices and elevated farm input costs cause commercial farmers to defer fleet modernization through FY2027.
We rate Deere & Company as a Sell because the stock trades at an extreme premium to its through-cycle earnings power.
On 2026-09-21, the report was prepared at a price of 684.73 USD. Our Fair value is 267.81 USD, and our Potential value is 330.41 USD. The report-date price trades 155.7% above our Fair value, representing 60.9% downside risk for investors.2
The primary risk to equity value is an extended farm recession where low crop prices cause farmers to delay machinery upgrades. If field tractor inventories pile up at dealerships, price cuts and factory slowdowns would drag operating margins below 11.0%, triggering a sharp valuation contraction toward peers.3
The business can generate long-term value if commercial growers rapidly adopt automated precision software that cuts field operating expenses. Higher software attach rates and resilient construction equipment sales would expand profit margins and lift value toward our Potential value of 330.41 USD, though this upside remains secondary to downside risks from the report-date price.3
Precision Agriculture Telematics and Autonomy
Connected software delivers double-digit variable operating cost savings for farmers, strengthening customer loyalty and software recurring revenue.3
Dominant Dealer Network and Parts Availability
Deere's extensive dealership network ensures rapid field repair response times, defending leading market share and supporting high aftermarket margins.2
Switching Costs via Connected Operations Center and Precision Ag Software
Deere's integrated telematics and precision software ecosystem delivers double-digit variable operating cost reductions for commercial growers, embedding farm management data into the Operations Center and creating high operational switching costs.3
House recommendation
We rate Deere & Company a Sell because the market price of 684.73 USD on 2026-09-21 sits 155.7% above our Fair value of 267.81 USD, leaving no margin of safety against cyclical machinery demand contraction.2
Company overview
Deere & Company is a global leader in the production of agricultural, turf, construction, and forestry equipment and solutions. John Deere Financial provides financing for John Deere equipment, parts, services, and other inputs customers need to run their operations.
Its operations are managed through the Production & Precision Agriculture (PPA), Small Agriculture & Turf (SAT), Construction & Forestry (CF), and Financial Services (FS) operating segments. Equipment manufactured and distributed by the segment includes four-wheel-drive (4WD)/track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers, cotton strippers, sugarcane harvesters, sugarcane loaders, and related harvesting front-end equipment.
Under a severe multi-year stress test combining sustained crop price weakness, tractor inventory indigestion, and multiple compression, Deere's earnings power faces sharp contraction. If Production and Precision Ag revenue declines by >5% YoY rather than rebounding, consolidated operating margins compress below 11.0%, and the forward P/E de-rates toward peer levels of 15.88x, intrinsic equity value falls to 234.08 USD, exposing unhedged investors to severe capital loss from the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21.
Deere & Company possesses a Narrow economic moat grounded in structural switching costs and an unmatched dealer distribution network. The company's connected equipment ecosystem, anchored by the John Deere Operations Center telematics platform, integrates farm agronomic data, machinery fleet management, and automated field logistics. This proprietary integration creates high customer switching barriers: commercial growers who have accumulated multi-year soil, yield, and machine-performance datasets within Deere's architecture face substantial operational disruption and data migration friction if switching to rival equipment.
Complementing software switching costs is Deere's extensive, highly capitalized independent dealer network. In commercial agriculture, equipment uptime during narrow seasonal planting and harvesting windows is critical to farm economics. Deere's dealer density ensures rapid on-field service response times and immediate parts availability that smaller domestic and foreign original equipment manufacturers cannot match. This distribution network defends market leadership, commands premium average selling prices, and generates high-margin aftermarket parts and servicing revenues through cyclical downswings.
At the trough of the equipment cycle, Deere's economic profit narrows significantly as invested capital generates operating income of $8.42B, yielding a trough of approximately 7.56% that temporarily tracks its computed cost of capital ( of 7.78%). However, disciplined capital spending ($1.36B in FY2025) and structural resilience support substantial economic value added over full ten-year cycle horizons.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($267.81). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.3B after modeled reinvestment of $1.1B, with terminal value at 76.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Upgrade to Reduce; Avoid adding capital; re-examine order book duration and dealer inventory absorption to assess whether pricing resilience reflects sustainable demand.
Trigger: Production and Precision Agriculture revenue and consolidated operating margin exceed guidance ranges driven by stronger North American retail order delivery.
An upside surprise driven by commercial fleet replacement would suggest demand stabilization, yet the shares trade well above $267.81.
In-line
Maintain Sell; Maintain defensive positioning and continue liquidating holdings toward full exit given substantial distance to $267.81.
Trigger: Consolidated revenue and segment margins fall within revised guidance ranges alongside seasonal dealer inventory adjustments.
During cyclical expansion phases, rising agricultural crop prices elevate net farm income, prompting commercial agricultural producers to aggressively modernize equipment fleets. Elevated equipment order backlogs, robust pricing realization, and operating leverage drive substantial margin expansion and rapid return on capital compounding for equipment manufacturers.
Bear cycle
During cyclical contraction phases, falling crop commodity prices squeeze grower margins and cash flows, leading commercial farmers to defer capital expenditures and delay fleet replacements. Dealership inventories accumulate, factory production rates slow to match reduced retail takeaway, and fixed cost under-absorption compresses operating profitability across the machinery complex.
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
Given our Sell rating, Fair value of 267.81 USD compared to the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21, and -60.89% upside, we recommend zero portfolio allocation (0%). The market valuation embeds an aggressive multi-year growth rebound that leaves no margin of safety against cyclical downcycle risks.2
Risk
Given the substantial valuation disconnect between Deere's market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21 and our Fair value of 267.81 USD, risk management centers on capital preservation. Investors should eliminate long exposure to avoid multiple compression risk as forward P/E of 29.24x normalizes toward historical and peer medians.
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Avoid
Deere trades at an extreme premium of 155.7% to our Fair value of 267.81 USD, offering zero margin of safety against cyclical earnings contraction.2
Growth Investor
Avoid
Consensus FY2026 revenue is projected to contract -7.29% while forward P/E sits elevated at 29.24x, far outstripping industrial peer growth and leaving no room for execution missteps.2
Income / Defensive Investor
Avoid
Although dividend payments are supported by resilient operating cash flow, capital depreciation risk from a multiple de-rating dwarfs the modest cash yield.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
We recommend a Sell rating for Deere & Company as the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21 stands 155.7% above our Fair value of 267.81 USD.2
While Deere maintains a solid narrow moat via telematics switching costs and its unmatched dealer network, peak multiple valuation leaves investors heavily exposed to multi-year agricultural equipment destocking risks.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-09-21 · Published 2026-09-21 · cited for 1 figureCited in Competitive moat, Financial history
The downside scenario reflects an extended farm recession where depressed grain commodity prices and high operating input costs lead commercial producers to postpone fleet renewal across multiple seasons. Persistent channel inventory builds would force substantial wholesale discounting and factory under-absorption, pulling operating margins toward historical trough levels and triggering significant multiple compression against peer valuations. This pathway would be disconfirmed if farm cash receipts rebound promptly and retail sales inflect positively.
Ways this thesis can break
Extended Farm Income Recession Triggers Multi-Year Equipment Demand Contraction
Depressed crop commodity prices and high input costs lead farmers to defer fleet modernization, causing Production & Precision Ag revenue to contract >5% YoY rather than rebounding 10% in FY2027.3
FV impact
-9.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Severe Operating Margin Compression From Dealer Destocking and Factory Under-Absorption
Elevated tractor inventory builds and softer international demand force factory shutdowns and wholesale discounts, pulling operating margins below 11.0% towards historical trough levels (9.79% in 2016).3
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Multiple Derating on Cyclical Trough Deferral and Capital Cost Inflation
Market de-rates Deere from forward P/E of 29.24x towards peer PCAR's 15.88x or a trough 12.0x multiple as near-term EPS recovery fails to materialize.2
FV impact
-14.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Indicates multi-year fleet replacement deferral by commercial farmers due to depressed crop cash receipts, falsifying the expected FY2027 demand rebound.
01Switching Costs via Connected Operations Center and Precision Ag Software — Deere's integrated telematics and precision software ecosystem delivers double-digit variable operating cost reductions for commercial growers, embedding farm management data into the Operations Center and creating high operational switching costs.Wide
02Unrivaled Dealer Distribution and Service Network — An extensive, well-capitalized independent dealership network provides rapid field service, superior parts availability, and customer retention during critical planting and harvesting windows, defending dominant market share.Wide
03Brand Equity and Manufacturing Scale Advantage — Decades of premium brand positioning and counter-cyclical manufacturing flexibility enable disciplined capital allocation across demand phases.Moderate
Operating margins normalize toward mid-cycle levels following trough inventory absorption.
Replacement demand and precision ag technology attach rates drive moderate volume inflection entering FY2027.3
Capital reinvestment remains disciplined at historical maintenance rates.5
The base scenario projects that equipment demand navigates a cyclical trough before stabilizing through replacement demand and precision software adoption entering FY2027. For this trajectory to hold, channel inventories must clear without widespread wholesale discounting, and operating margins must normalize toward mid-cycle levels. This pathway would be disconfirmed if crop commodity prices weaken further, causing commercial producers to extend fleet deferrals. This path yields a target of $267.81 with a probability of 50.0%, representing an expected return of -60.9% relative to $684.73.3
The bull scenario envisions an accelerated replacement cycle where grower adoption of autonomous machinery and precision telematics drives premium average selling prices and variable cost savings, while Construction & Forestry maintains robust sales momentum. This path requires rapid dealer channel destocking and expanded software attach rates. It would be disconfirmed if elevated interest rates continue to suppress agricultural capital spending into FY2027. Under these conditions, the valuation approaches Potential value of $330.41 with a likelihood of 15.0%, representing a return of -51.7% relative to $684.73.3
Meeting lowered expectations confirms that equipment demand remains in a cyclical contraction, keeping intrinsic valuation anchored near $267.81.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Execute complete divestment of remaining exposure and track dealer discounting and credit loss provisions for evidence of trough formation.
Trigger: Equipment shipments and operating margins fall below revised full-year outlook as dealer destocking forces factory curtailments.
An earnings miss would signal that farm income compression is accelerating fleet modernization deferrals, exacerbating factory under-absorption.
Operating cash conversion remains resilient through the equipment downcycle as disciplined working capital management supports healthy cash generation relative to net income. However, recent tractor inventory accumulation across dealership channels poses an earnings quality risk. If field inventory is not absorbed through retail demand, subsequent wholesale discounting and factory under-absorption would erode reported gross margins and indicate that past revenue recognition outpaced underlying farmer takeaway.3,4,5
CurrentManagement adjusted international sales outlook downward due to persistent farmer caution in South America and Europe.
Why it matters
Tracks whether commercial growers are resuming equipment fleet modernization or continuing to defer large machinery investments, directly determining the timing of revenue inflection and factory utilization.
Free cash flow generation remained robust at $6.10B in FY2025, underpinned by $7.46B in operating cash flow and capex moderation to $1.36B. Cash conversion (free cash flow divided by net income of $5.03B) exceeded 120%, illustrating Deere's ability to extract substantial cash even during contractionary demand phases. However, maintaining this conversion relies on avoiding dealer inventory absorption bottlenecks.3,4,5
Deere maintains a balanced capital allocation framework centered on shareholder distributions and liquidity maintenance. In FY2025, the company returned capital through $1.72B in dividends and $1.14B in share repurchases, reducing diluted shares outstanding from 293.6M in FY2023 to 271.7M in FY2025 and 269.6M currently. While total debt of $64.58B predominantly supports the Financial Services loan portfolio ($6.29B revenue), manufacturing leverage remains conservative.
Return on invested capital has compressed from peak levels in FY2023 toward 7.56% at the cyclical trough as operating income normalized from $12.96B to $8.42B on an invested capital base of $89.85B.
At the cyclical trough, estimated ROIC of 7.56% temporarily tracks the computed WACC of 7.78%, indicating that economic spread compression is near its trough before mid-cycle recovery restores returns above capital costs.
Deere & Company (DE) trades at 29.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 24.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 28.2x compares with a peer median of 22.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: PACCAR Inc., Caterpillar Inc., The Boeing Company and Parker-Hannifin Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Precision Agriculture and Autonomous Equipment Adoption
positive
Farmers adopt telematics, automated guidance, and precision spraying/planting technologies to offset rising fertilizer and labor costs, delivering double-digit variable cost savings.
Dealer Territory Consolidation and Servicing Complexity
positive
Increasing mechanical and software complexity favors heavily capitalized dealership networks, reinforcing Deere's distribution moat against smaller competitors.
Global Agricultural Trade Shifts and Input Cost Volatility
negative
Fluctuations in fertilizer expenses and shifting global grain trade flows create persistent farm income uncertainty in international markets like Latin America and Europe.
Positioning
Deere is positioned at the top of the agricultural machinery hierarchy. Its dominant dealer footprint and connected fleet ecosystem allow it to capture premium pricing and sustain an 18.42% operating margin in FY2025, exceeding the industry operating margin benchmark of 16.10% and machinery peer PCAR at 12.02%. However, near-term inventory builds ahead of the industry expose it to cyclical destocking risks before the next upswing.2,3
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
At or below Fair value (267.81 USD)
Consider initiating disciplined accumulation only if cyclical demand stabilizes
Aligns market price with normalized mid-cycle valuation, providing adequate margin of safety.
Evaluate standard cyclical position sizing
Represents the low endpoint of our fair value range, pricing in a severe farm recession.
Exit tranches
Level
Action
Market price as of 2026-09-21 (684.73 USD)
Liquidate remaining long exposure immediately to lock in peak cyclical gains.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
