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Etsy Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $7.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 987.3M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $7.75 | |
| Shares out | 91.8M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 11.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 14.9x | |
| Volume | 6,671,545 | |
| Beta | 1.86 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $2.33B | $2.57B | $2.75B | $2.81B | $2.88B | +5.5% |
| Gross profit | $1.67B | $1.82B | $1.92B | $2.03B | $2.07B | +5.4% |
| Operating income | $465.7M | $-658.6M | $279.8M | $380.2M | $266.2M | -13.0% |
| Net income | $493.5M | $-694.3M | $307.6M | $303.3M | $163.0M | -24.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.40 | $-5.48 | $2.24 | $2.35 | $1.39 | -20.0% |
| EBITDA | $555.8M | $-551.1M | $398.2M | $532.7M | $367.0M | -9.9% |
| R&D | $271.5M | $412.4M | $469.3M | $443.1M | $450.2M | +13.5% |
| SG&A | $282.5M | $312.3M | $343.2M | $353.9M | $332.8M | +4.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The base case represents our modal expected trajectory, yielding a Fair value of $51.06. Consensus projects FY2026 revenue to contract by -1.18% to $2,849.49M before recovering to 4.72% growth in FY2027 ($2,983.86M). Operating margins expand gradually from FY2025's 9.23% to 13.0% in FY2026 and 14.0% in FY2027 as restructuring benefits materialize, supporting diluted EPS of $3.45 in FY2026 and $4.55 in FY2027.
In the bull case, generative AI search personalization drives significant conversion rate improvements, international buyer GMS accelerates above historical averages, and operating margins expand toward 16.0%. Combined with ongoing share repurchases under the $2.0B authorization, intrinsic value reaches the high end of our valuation range at $68.93.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | $52.6 | $53.6 | $54.6 | $55.9 | $57.3 |
| 11.0% | $51.0 | $51.8 | $52.7 | $53.8 | $55.0 |
| 11.5% | $49.6 | $50.3 | $51.1 | $52.0 | $53.0 |
| 12.0% | $48.2 | $48.8 | $49.5 | $50.3 | $51.2 |
| 12.5% | $47.0 | $47.5 | $48.1 | $48.8 | $49.6 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
