§ Sector lens

Consumer Cyclical

Demand-elastic businesses. We separate brand premium from cyclical volume, value at mid-cycle margins, and stress-test against demand shocks.

Tickers covered

+2.2%

Avg. upside to FV

6.4

Avg. moat

Coverage

Ticker	Price	Fair value	Upside	Rating	Moat
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. · Cyclical	$3.13 —	$11.02 Potential value $21.65	+252.1%	Strong Buy	2
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. · Hyper-growth	$97.34 —	$265.33 Potential value $403.15	+172.6%	Strong Buy	6.5
LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. · Mature compounder	$119.22 —	$228.48 Potential value $281.62	+91.7%	Strong Buy	6.5
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. · Hyper-growth	$1,594.86 —	$2,600.22 Potential value $4,150.74	+63.0%	Strong Buy	9
LKQ LKQ Corporation · Cyclical	$22.23 —	$34.41 Potential value $49.17	+54.8%	Strong Buy	6.5
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. · Mature compounder	$193.29 ▲ +22.01 (+12.8%)	$292.84 Potential value $368.47	+51.5%	Strong Buy	6
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. · Cyclical	$36.85 —	$51.45 Potential value $71.64	+39.6%	Strong Buy	7.5
JD JD.com, Inc. · Mature compounder	$32.38 —	$44.07 Potential value $56.43	+36.1%	Strong Buy	6.5
MCD McDonald's Corporation · Mature compounder	$255.69 ▼ -28.01 (-9.9%)	$345.00 Potential value $487.79	+34.9%	Strong Buy	1
APTV Aptiv PLC · Cyclical	$44.86 —	$57.34 Potential value $92.65	+27.8%	Buy	6.5
LEN Lennar Corporation · Cyclical	$76.69 —	$91.06 Potential value $170.23	+18.7%	Buy	5.5
GM General Motors Company · Cyclical	$83.96 ▲ +5.55 (+7.1%)	$97.93 Potential value $169.48	+16.6%	Buy	6
PHM PulteGroup Inc. · Cyclical	$113.42 —	$131.66 Potential value $185.38	+16.1%	Buy	6.5
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. · Mature compounder	$198.30 —	$226.51 Potential value $282.25	+14.2%	Buy	7
NVR NVR, Inc. · Cyclical	$5,899.16 —	$6,249.35 Potential value $7,491.93	+5.9%	Hold	7
F Ford Motor Company · Cyclical	$12.10 —	$12.71 Potential value $18.96	+5.0%	Hold	5.5
TSCO Tractor Supply Company · Mature dividend	$32.91 —	$34.55 Potential value $44.45	+5.0%	Hold	7.5
WYNN Wynn Resorts Limited · Cyclical	$73.73 —	$76.43 Potential value $89.05	+3.7%	Hold	6.5
GPC Genuine Parts Company · Cyclical	$127.02 —	$130.93 Potential value $156.30	+3.1%	Hold	6.5
EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. · Mature compounder	$265.00 —	$267.03 Potential value $353	+0.8%	Hold	6.5
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · Growth infrastructure	$15.05 —	$14.86 Potential value $18.11	-1.3%	Hold	5.5
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. · Mature compounder	$136.12 —	$133.09 Potential value $174.06	-2.2%	Hold	9
MHK Mohawk Industries Inc. · Mature compounder	$119.97 —	$115.33 Potential value $138.62	-3.9%	Hold	6.5
AZO AutoZone Inc. · Cyclical	$2,792.03 —	$2,635.86 Potential value $3,971.65	-5.6%	Hold	8
NKE NIKE Inc. · Mature dividend	$34.71 —	$31.93 Potential value $46.24	-8.0%	Hold	9
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc. · Mature dividend	$229.20 · 0.00 (0.0%)	$206.63 Potential value $240.76	-9.8%	Reduce	9
BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. · Mature dividend	$87.01 —	$78.18 Potential value $92.76	-10.2%	Reduce	5.5
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. · Mature compounder	$545.48 —	$485.87 Potential value $552.28	-10.9%	Reduce	7.5
DASH DoorDash Inc. · Mature compounder	$162.67 —	$142.82 Potential value $224.99	-12.2%	Reduce	6.5
CCL Carnival Corporation · Mature compounder	$25.76 —	$22.53 Potential value $27.45	-12.5%	Reduce	6.5
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. · Mature compounder	$130.06 ▼ -23.30 (-15.2%)	$112.24 Potential value $133.51	-13.7%	Reduce	7.5
MGM MGM Resorts International · Cyclical	$28.96 —	$24.22 Potential value $27.28	-16.4%	Reduce	6
KMX CarMax, Inc. · Turnaround	$49.82 —	$38.78 Potential value $46.09	-22.2%	Sell	6.5
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Mature compounder	$378.42 —	$292.23 Potential value $325.89	-22.8%	Sell	7.2
ROST Ross Stores, Inc. · Mature compounder	$217.71 —	$158.93 Potential value $197.48	-27.0%	Sell	6.5
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. · Mature compounder	$258.51 ▼ -12.66 (-4.7%)	$183.76 Potential value $225.57	-28.9%	Sell	5.5
GRMN Garmin Ltd. · Mature compounder	$281.08 —	$192.38 Potential value $218.14	-31.6%	Sell	7.5
HD The Home Depot, Inc. · Mature dividend	$321.05 ▼ -1.59 (-0.5%)	$215.78 Potential value $306.96	-32.8%	Sell	1
MAR Marriott International, Inc. · Mature compounder	$358.69 —	$227.84 Potential value $303.69	-36.5%	Sell	9
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. · Mature compounder	$173.70 ▲ +32.64 (+23.1%)	$109.08 Potential value $131.42	-37.2%	Sell	8
BWA BorgWarner Inc. · Cyclical	$63.32 —	$39.61 Potential value $61.06	-37.4%	Sell	6
ETSY Etsy Inc. · Mature compounder	$82.93 —	$51.06 Potential value $68.93	-38.4%	Sell	7.2
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. · Growth infrastructure	$269.99 —	$165.47 Potential value $226.86	-38.7%	Sell	7
RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. · Cyclical	$14.33 —	$8.52 Potential value $12.44	-40.5%	Sell	3.5
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · Mature compounder	$313.96 —	$183.91 Potential value $218.97	-41.4%	Sell	9
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc. · Cyclical	$91.92 —	$53.83 Potential value $74.49	-41.4%	Sell	9
SBUX Starbucks Corporation · Mature dividend	$104.93 · 0.00 (0.0%)	$40.42 Potential value $49.10	-61.5%	Sell	6.5
CZR Caesars Entertainment Inc. · Cyclical	$28.80 —	$9.29 Potential value $10.14	-67.7%	Sell	5.5
TSLA Tesla Inc. · Cyclical	$354.08 ▼ -22.06 (-5.9%)	$24.84 Potential value $33.44	-93.0%	Sell	1

October 2026 · sector commentary

Consumer Discretionary — October 2026

As of 2026-10-28 · Published 2026-10-28T07:00:08+00:00

As of 2026-10-28, the sector snapshot covered 529 constituents. Median returns were unavailable over one month and unavailable over three months. The recorded valuation median was 17.63 across 324 observations. The market-wide sector-rotation score was unavailable. Missing values are left unavailable rather than estimated.

Info

Compare consumer cyclical against every other sector in the sector-rotation matrix — relative-strength rank, forward P/E, and revisions delta in one frame, as of the latest published outlook.

Top by upside

LCID

+252.1%

Lucid Group, Inc.

Strong Buy· 2026-10-17

PDD

+172.6%

PDD Holdings Inc.

Strong Buy· 2026-05-20

LULU

+91.7%

Lululemon Athletica Inc.