Is Fox Corporation Class A overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, FOXA looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 63.3 versus our fair value of USD 83.8; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 137. That implies roughly 32.3% upside to fair value at that date.

What is FOXA's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives FOXA a fair value of USD 83.8 and a potential value of USD 137. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Fox Corporation Class A's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy FOXA now?

Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy. Fox Corporation Class A looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 63.3 versus fair value of USD 83.8; potential value is USD 137. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for FOXA?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Fox Corporation Class A's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is FOXA's rating?

Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 83.8, the potential value of USD 137, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 63.3).

What archetype is FOXA?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-10-05, Fox Corporation Class A is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FOXA.

FOXA stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchAnalyzed 2026-10-05

Fox Corporation Class A

FOXA

Buy

32.3% upside to fair value

Report-date price

$63.33

Recorded 2026-10-05

Fair value

$83.77

Potential value

$137.46

Upper valuation endpoint

Economic moat

Narrow6.5 / 10

§1 Executive summary

30-second answerBuy

Price versus value

Price: $63.33
Fair value: $83.77
Potential value: $137.46
As of: 2026-10-05

Main upside reason

Accelerating digital profitability as Tubi maintains >30% top-line growth and eliminates digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026), combined with record midterm political advertising and continued $2.0B annual share repurchases that compound diluted EPS toward consensus highs.

Main risk

Pay-television subscriber attrition in Cable Network Programming accelerates beyond 8.0% annually, overwhelming contractual affiliate fee escalators.

We assign a Buy rating to Fox Corporation Class A, reflecting a 32.3% implied return to our Fair value of USD 83.77 as live sports rights, election-cycle political advertising, and rapid Tubi streaming monetization generate strong free cash flow to fund aggressive share repurchases.

Our Buy rating indicates that Fox Corporation Class A offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for long-term equity investors seeking cash-generative compounding. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation signifies that the company's underlying earnings power and balance sheet capital returns are substantially undervalued relative to the cash flows produced by its core broadcast television, news, and digital streaming franchises.

The stock was priced at USD 63.33 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the shares trade at an implied return of 32.3% to our Fair value of USD 83.77, representing a 24.4% price discount. Under our constructive expansion path, Fox's reaches USD 137.46, offering substantial multi-year upside should digital streaming profitability and advertising pricing exceed expectations.

§2 Bear case

Under a combined stress environment where linear cord-cutting accelerates beyond 8% annually, programmatic connected television advertising supply dilutes AVOD CPM pricing, and net leverage from planned corporate transactions reaches 2.8x against total debt of $7,568M in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment, consolidated operating margins compress toward 15-16%. Annual free cash flow would contract, compelling management to scale back annual share repurchases below $1,000M, testing balance sheet flexibility and limiting per-share compounding.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

20%

Return

-25.0%

Path target

$47.52

Accelerating secular cord-cutting exceeds contractual affiliate rate increases, compressing cable programming operating margins.
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply depresses Tubi monetization and delays digital breakeven.
Higher leverage and debt service costs following transaction execution constrain discretionary capital return and curtail share repurchases.

In the bear case, severe pay-TV subscriber attrition overwhelms contractual pricing escalators, while programmatic ad market dilution and elevated debt service compress operating margins and restrict share buybacks.

Ways this thesis can break

Severe cord-cutting and linear affiliate revolt accelerates subscriber attrition beyond contractual rate increases, collapsing cable programming profitability.

Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in FY2026 and supported $3,345M of consolidated operating income. If subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, margins drop below 20%, triggering operating margin contraction across the firm.^4,8

FV impact

-7.3%

Operating margin 3 points lower throughout

Trigger

Within 12 months

Early-warning signals to monitor

The five developments that would weaken our investment case.

Cable Network Programming operating margin

Affiliate pricing resistance or accelerating traditional pay-TV cord-cutting exceeding rate escalators, eroding annuity cash flows.

Current:25.21% (peer FOX cable operating margin)

Alert if< 22%

§3 Competitive moat

Narrow

Fox Corporation maintains a Narrow economic moat supported by structural advantages in live sports broadcasting agreements, the indispensable brand franchise of Fox News, and the digital reach platform of Tubi. In broadcast television, Fox holds exclusive telecast agreements for NFL football locked through 2029 with contractual stability confirmed for the next four years before any rights opt-out period. Live event sports consumption, where Fox topped all broadcast networks in fiscal 2026, provides appointment viewing that cannot be replicated by on-demand scripted entertainment, preserving linear mass audience reach and premium advertiser pricing.

The Cable Network Programming segment ($7,348M in FY2026 revenue, 42.91% of consolidated revenue) functions as a high-margin cash generator that anchors consolidated operating income of $3,345M. Fox News commands essential carriage positioning across traditional multichannel video programming distributors and virtual MVPD platforms. Contractual affiliate fee escalation clauses have largely absorbed ongoing mid-single-digit secular subscriber volume declines, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows and peer-leading cable operating margins of 25.21%.

In digital streaming, Fox has executed a capital-efficient digital transition centered on Tubi (FAST/AVOD) and FOX One, avoiding the multi-billion-dollar direct-to-consumer content deficit spending that has impaired legacy media peers. Tubi achieved 35% revenue growth in FY2026 driven by proactive video-on-demand viewing, while total digital net investment losses contracted from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026. While secular linear pay-TV subscriber cord-cutting prevents a Wide moat rating, locked sports contracts and cash generation justify a 5-year stage II competitive fade duration.

Economic profit

Fox generates durable economic profits, supported by FY2026 operating cash flow of $1,970M and free cash flow of $1,468M on consolidated revenues of $17,126M. Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.41% exceeds the company's moderate cost of equity of 8.2601% and computed WACC of 7.4102% by approximately 700 basis points, reflecting an asset-light operating model with low capital expenditures ($502M in FY2026).^2,6,7

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Intangible assets (long-term marquee live sports broadcast rights and Fox News brand franchise)Fox holds exclusive broadcast telecast rights for NFL football locked through 2029 with no contractual term changes for four years, creating appointment viewing that commands premium upfront advertiser pricing and preserves broad broadcast reach.Wide
Distribution scale and must-have broadcast reach in live unscripted contentTelevision generated $9,666M in FY2026 and Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M, supporting must-have retransmission and affiliate fee carriage across traditional MVPDs and virtual MVPDs.Moderate

Known threats to the moat
Threat	Severity	Timeline	Mitigation
Linear pay-TV cord-cutting acceleration beyond contractual affiliate rate increases.	high	12-24 months	Must-have live sports and news distribution across virtual MVPD tiers (YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV), contracted affiliate rate inflators, and non-linear reach via Tubi and incremental FOX One subscribers.

§5 Sensitivity

Discount rate

Terminal growth

	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
7.3%	$92.83	$96.51	$100.69	$105.50	$111.08
7.8%	$85.20	$88.06	$91.27	$94.89	$99.01
8.3%	$78.95	$81.24	$83.77	$86.59	$89.75
8.8%	$73.74	$75.61	$77.65	$79.90	$82.39
9.3%	$69.30	$70.85	$72.53	$74.36	$76.37

Rows: discount rate (Ke for earnings; WACC for cash flow). Columns: terminal growth.

Duration change (years)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($83.77). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

FCF cliff

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.3B after modeled reinvestment of $202.2M, with terminal value at 81.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§7 Earnings decision tree

Beat

Upgrade the rating; Evaluate incremental position expansion and monitor whether digital profit inflection provides sustainable operating margin expansion beyond tournament-boosted quarters.

Trigger: Diluted earnings per share and Television segment revenue exceed consensus expectations driven by record midterm political advertising and Tubi revenue growth accelerating above historical pacing.

An earnings beat driven by outsized political advertising capture and faster digital breakeven accelerates free cash flow generation, increases share repurchase pacing, and expands intrinsic value per share toward Potential value.

In-line

Maintain Buy; Maintain existing allocation, verifying that share buyback execution continues as planned through pending transaction financing.

Trigger: Diluted earnings per share and consolidated revenue track consensus expectations with scheduled affiliate rate increases offsetting pay-TV cord-cutting and steady share repurchases.

In-line financial execution affirms the mature compounder thesis, verifying that contractual pricing escalation and ongoing share retirements continue to drive per-share value compounding.

Miss

Downgrade the rating; Review exposure, pause incremental capital deployment, and reassess debt leverage thresholds and buyback execution.

Trigger: Diluted earnings per share or Cable Network Programming affiliate revenues contract below consensus as pay-TV subscriber attrition accelerates beyond rate escalators or programmatic ad pricing weakens.

An operational miss stemming from deteriorating cable affiliate fees or digital advertising pricing softness would compress operating margins and constrain capital return capacity.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality remains supported by healthy operating cash flow conversion of net income, modest capital expenditure requirements, and minimal reliance on working capital adjustments. High cash conversion confirms that reported operating income translates directly into distributable free cash flow, while the steady reduction in digital investment drag reflects structural operating improvement rather than accounting accruals.

Estimate momentum

Consensus earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal years have held steady following fourth-quarter results, balancing cyclical political advertising momentum against linear pay-TV subscriber attrition and comparison hurdles from non-recurring tournament broadcasts.

Metrics to watch into the print

Metric:
Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends
CurrentContractual affiliate escalators are absorbing volume declines, with must-have live sports and news carriage maintaining carriage tier positioning across distributors.
Why it matters
Measures whether contractual per-subscriber fee increases continue to offset pay-TV cord-cutting attrition, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows that fund capital returns.
Metric:
Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection

§8 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Period	2022-06-30	2023-06-30	2024-06-30	2025-06-30	2026-06-30	Trend
Revenue	$13.97B	$14.91B	$13.98B	$16.30B	$17.13B	+5.2%
Gross profit	$13.97B	$14.91B	$13.98B	$5.40B	$6.27B	-18.1%
Operating income	$2.07B	$2.09B	$2.51B	$3.46B	$2.55B	+5.4%
Net income	$1.21B	$1.24B	$1.50B	$2.26B	$1.69B	+8.7%
EPS (diluted)	$2.11	$2.33	$3.13	$4.91	$3.84	+16.1%
EBITDA	$2.43B	$2.50B	$2.90B	$3.85B	$2.96B	+5.0%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.92B	$2.05B	$2.02B	$2.17B	$2.37B	+5.4%

Accepted annual forecast
Metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Revenue	$17.69B	$17.66B

Cash flow

Operating cash flow reached $1,970M in FY2026, which funded capital expenditures of $502M to generate $1,468M in free cash flow. Low capital intensity (capex at 2.93% of revenue) and narrowing digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026 vs <$300M in FY2025) underpin steady cash conversion.^5,6,7

Capital allocation

ROIC

Asset-light broadcast operations, disciplined rights renewals, and minimal fixed capital investment allow Fox to generate economic returns substantially above its cost of capital.

ROIC of 14.41% exceeds computed WACC of 7.4102% and moderate cost of equity Ke of 8.2601% by approximately 700 bps, generating durable economic value.

Share repurchases are the primary driver of double-digit EPS expansion.

Fox repurchased $2,000M of stock in FY2026, lowering diluted share count to 439M and compounding diluted EPS from $3.84 in FY2026 toward consensus $5.85 in FY2028.

Per-share earnings growth will consistently outpace revenue growth even in low-single-digit top-line environments.

Narrow digital investment drag is expanding consolidated .

Latest revenue$17.1BRevenue CAGR +6.3%

Operating margin19.5%10 fiscal periods

Latest free cash flow$1.5BFY2026

Net debt$2.4BFY2026

Income statement breakdownHow business scale converts into reported profit.Jun 30, 2026

StockMarketAgent.AI

Financial history data
Revenue	$4,212,000,000
Cost of revenue	$2,182,000,000
Gross profit	$2,030,000,000
Operating expenses	$1,045,000,000
Operating income	$985,000,000
Non-operating items and tax	-$294,000,000
Net income	$691,000,000

Balance sheet snapshotHow reported assets are held and financed at the selected period.

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Balance sheet breakdown data
Total assets	$22,482,000,000
Cash	$4,205,000,000
Current assets	$8,453,000,000
Total liabilities	$10,754,000,000
Current liabilities	$2,667,000,000
Shareholders’ equity	$11,728,000,000

Cash-flow statement breakdownHow cash moved through operating, investing, and financing activities in FY2026.

StockMarketAgent.AI

$2B − $502MFree cash flow $1.5B

Cash-flow statement breakdown data
Net income	$1,685,000,000
Operating inflow	$2,227,000,000
Depreciation and amortization	$410,000,000
Stock-based compensation	$132,000,000
Operating cash flow	$1,970,000,000
Operating outflow	$257,000,000
Cash available	$7,321,000,000
Beginning cash	$5,351,000,000
Investing outflow	$705,000,000
Capex	$502,000,000
Other investing activities	$203,000,000
Financing outflow	$2,411,000,000
Share repurchases	$2,000,000,000
Dividends paid	$287,000,000
Other financing activities	$124,000,000
Ending cash	$4,205,000,000
Investing cash flow	-$705,000,000
Financing cash flow	-$2,411,000,000

Revenue by business categoryShare of total revenue for 2026-06-30.

Revenue by business categoryShare

Cost of2.2B51.8%

Other2B48.2%

Revenue composition data: Revenue by business category
Revenue by business category	Revenue	Share	YoY
Cost of	2.2B	51.8%	—
Other	2B	48.2%	—

Revenue and earningsHow business scale converts into reported profit.

Cash and debtLiquidity available against total borrowing.

Cash generationOperating cash flow compared with free cash flow.

ProfitabilityGross, operating, and net margin progression.

Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-10-05 analysis.

Financial history data
Period	Revenue	EBITDA	Net income	Operating cash flow	Free cash flow	Capex	Depreciation and amortization	Stock-based compensation	Share repurchases	Dividends paid	Net debt issuance	Investing cash flow	Financing cash flow	Beginning cash	Ending cash	Cash and investments	Total debt	Operating margin	ROIC	WACC	ROIC − WACC spread
2017-06-30	$9.9B	$2.4B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$191M	$169M	$0	—	$35M	—	-$242M	-$1.4B	—	$19M	$19M	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2018-06-30	$10.2B	$2.4B	$2.2B	$1.3B	$1.1B	$215M	$171M	$0	$0	$41M	—	$128M	$1B	$19M	$2.5B	$2.5B	$0	21.8%	—	—	—
2019-06-30	$11.4B	$2.6B	$1.6B	$2.5B	$2.3B	$235M	$212M	$36M	$0	$188M	—	-$637M	-$1.2B	$2.5B	$3.2B	$3.2B	$6.8B	21.3%	—	4.2%	—
2020-06-30	$12.3B	$2.1B	$999M	$2.4B	$2B	$359M	$258M	$137M	$600M	$335M	—	-$1.1B	$146M	$3.2B	$4.6B	$4.6B	$7.9B	20.3%	—	2.7%	—
2021-06-30	$12.9B	$3.6B	$2.2B	$2.6B	$2.2B	$484M	$300M	$147M	$1B	$330M	—	-$528M	-$870M	$4.6B	$5.9B	$5.9B	$8B	21.4%	—	4.8%	—
2022-06-30	$14B	$2.4B	$1.2B	$1.9B	$1.6B	$307M	$363M	$102M	$1B	$307M	-$750M	-$513M	-$2.1B	$5.9B	$5.2B	$5.2B	$7.2B	18.4%	—	5.7%	—
2023-06-30	$14.9B	$2.5B	$1.2B	$1.8B	$1.4B	$357M	$411M	$74M	$2B	$299M	$0	-$438M	-$2.3B	$5.2B	$4.3B	$4.3B	$7.2B	18.5%	—	6.4%	—
2024-06-30	$14B	$2.9B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$1.5B	$345M	$389M	$90M	$1B	$281M	-$18M	-$452M	-$1.3B	$4.3B	$4.3B	$4.3B	$7.2B	17.7%	—	6.8%	—
2025-06-30	$16.3B	$3.8B	$2.3B	$3.3B	$3B	$331M	$385M	$135M	$1B	$277M	-$600M	-$537M	-$1.8B	$4.3B	$5.4B	$5.4B	$6.6B	19.8%	—	6.2%	—
2026-06-30	$17.1B	$3B	$1.7B	$2B	$1.5B	$502M	$410M	$132M	$2B	$287M	$0	-$705M	-$2.4B	$5.4B	$4.2B	$4.2B	$6.6B	19.5%	—	6.4%	—

§9 Peer valuation comparison

Fox Corporation Class AFOXA

Price / fair value

Fair value$83.77Report-date price$63.33

AssessedOct 05, 2026

Economic moatNarrow

Investment scorecard72 / 100

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.LYV

Price / fair value

Fair value$46.58Report-date price$168.77

AssessedOct 03, 2026

Economic moatNarrow

Investment scorecard

Netflix, Inc.NFLX

Price / fair value

Fair value$63.88Report-date price$78.25

AssessedSep 08, 2026

Economic moatNarrow

Investment scorecard

Peer multiples and profitability
Ticker	Name	Mcap	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA

Fox Corporation Class A (FOXA) trades at 11.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 16.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Live Nation Entertainment Inc., Fox Corporation Class B, Netflix Inc. and News Corp Class B, as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.

§10 Industry & cycle

Cycle phase

Contraction

Industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 0.63 and industry capex-to-revenue is -1.3%, reflecting capital discipline and subdued fixed asset reinvestment across the media broadcasting sector. Fox's own capex of $502M in FY2026 relative to D&A of $410M reinforces this low capital intensity. Capacity and lead-time data are unavailable, so the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.⁷

Bull cycle

The broadcast and media bull cycle is powered by biennial political advertising surges, marquee live sports viewership records, contractual retransmission and affiliate fee inflation, and rapid AVOD streaming monetization.

Bear cycle

The media broadcast bear cycle is characterized by accelerating linear pay-TV cord-cutting, subscriber resistance to traditional cable bundle pricing, off-cycle political advertising vacuums, and programmatic connected TV inventory dilution that compresses ad CPMs.

Secular trends
Trend	Impact	Note
Secular pay-TV linear cord-cutting	negative	Accelerating subscriber attrition across traditional cable and satellite distributors erodes pay-TV bundle penetration, putting pressure on linear affiliate revenues.
Migration of viewership to ad-supported connected TV (AVOD/FAST)	positive	Audiences are shifting toward ad-supported streaming platforms, enabling Tubi's 35% revenue growth with high user engagement.
Value concentration in live unscripted sports and news programming

Positioning

Fox is positioned as a focused live sports and unscripted news broadcaster with an asset-light AVOD streaming wing (Tubi), intentionally avoiding capital-intensive scripted SVOD entertainment production.

§11 Position management

Sizing

3-5%

Supported by stable free cash flow ($1,468M in FY2026), locked sports telecast rights through 2029, and continuous $2,000M share repurchases that provide strong downside support.^5,6

Risk

Position risk is managed by capping portfolio weighting at 5%, monitoring quarterly linear cord-cutting trends and affiliate negotiations, and tracking balance sheet net leverage through the completion of planned corporate transactions.

Entry tranches
Level	Action	Why
$60.00 - $64.00	Initiate core position	Provides attractive entry at a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77) with forward P/E of 11.11x.
Below $55.00	Add to position	Offers an enhanced margin of safety, trading near historical trough valuation multiples with dividend yield support.

Exit tranches
Level	Action
$80.00 - $84.00	Trim 30% of position
$95.00 - $100.00	Trim an additional 30% of position as valuation approaches potential value

Quarterly checkpoints
Metric	Threshold	Action
Cable Network Programming operating margin	< 22%	Re-underwrite terminal value and assess whether affiliate fee resistance is impairing annuity cash flows.
Tubi annual

FOXA	Fox Corporation Class A	$26.7B	11.1x	1.6x	7.6x	14.3%	—
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment Inc.	$39.8B	87.5x	1.5x	27.9x	17.7%	6.7%
FOX	Fox Corporation Class B	$23.9B	9.9x	1.4x	7.0x	14.3%	25.2%
NFLX	Netflix Inc.	$279.2B	17.6x	5.8x	19.5x	49.5%	33.4%
NWS	News Corp Class B	$17.3B	21.2x	1.9x	13.9x	8.0%	12.5%

Is Fox Corporation Class A overvalued?

What is FOXA's fair value?

Should I buy FOXA now?

What are the biggest risks for FOXA?

What is FOXA's rating?

What archetype is FOXA?

Fox Corporation Class A

Names readers of FOXA also follow

Company overview

Cable Network Programming operating margin

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Discounted Earnings

Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends

Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection

Sources

Tubi revenue growth

Annual share repurchases

Television segment revenue growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

PEG-adjusted Peer

Midterm election political advertising revenues

Discretionary share repurchase pacing and capital return

Net leverage trajectory and interest coverage