Optional product analytics
With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
Accelerated customer conversion on energy-efficient compressor replacement cycles driven by elevated industrial electricity prices, which accelerates long-cycle 2027 project backlog realization while Precision & Science Technologies expands EBITDA margins toward the mid-30s.
Consolidated organic revenue growth decelerating below 1.0% YoY.
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (NYSE: IR) trades at $77.78 as of October 5, 2026, representing a 26.6% premium to our Fair Value estimate of $61.46 (-21.0% implied return), which underpins our Sell recommendation as market pricing exceeds fundamental valuation despite strong free cash flow conversion of approximately 95%.35
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) is subject to a Sell recommendation, as its market price of $77.78 as of October 5, 2026 trades at a 26.6% premium above our Fair Value of $61.46, yielding an implied return of -21.0%. The company trades at a forward P/E of 19.34x, well above cyclical machinery peers such as Cummins at 15.28x. This valuation leaves no margin of safety against macro headwinds and rising funding costs across its $4,849.5 million debt burden, which carries a 6.24% pre-tax cost of debt.234
Operational performance exhibits clear regional divergence. While North America generated $3,189.9 million in FY2025 (41.7% of sales) with resilient short-to-medium cycle industrial activity, international markets face significant strain. In EMEA ($2,601.5 million or 34.0% of FY2025 revenue), Q2 2026 organic orders declined low double digits due to long-cycle project phasing in blowers and vacuums. Concurrently, China ($789.5 million in FY2025 revenue) experienced intense original equipment price competition, leading management to guide full-year ITS margins below FY2025 levels.57
The core business benefits from a Narrow economic moat supported by mission-critical flow equipment and sticky aftermarket parts and service revenues across Industrial Technologies & Services ($6,056.4 million in FY2025 sales). Ingersoll Rand maintains low capital expenditure intensity of 1.77% of revenue ($135.6 million in FY2025), enabling management to target approximately 95% free cash flow conversion and support programmatic bolt-on M&A that adds approximately 2.5% to annual top-line growth.567
Management updated FY2026 revenue guidance to 4.5%–6.5%, supported by consensus expectations of $8,115.1 million in FY2026 revenue and $3.92 in FY2027 diluted EPS. Furthermore, high industrial electricity costs continue to drive secular payback demand for energy-efficient compressor upgrades, building project backlog into 2027. Nevertheless, these operational virtues are fully discounted at current multiples; under a 9.08% WACC and terminal exit multiple of 18.5x, fair value of $61.46 offers an unfavorable risk profile, justifying a Sell rating.125
Ingersoll Rand's Industrial Technologies & Services segment generated $6,056.4M in FY2025 (79.2% of consolidated revenue), where mission-critical compressed air installations generate sticky, high-margin aftermarket service and parts revenue that insulates cash flow across business cycles.7
With compressed air accounting for significant manufacturing electricity consumption, rising power prices shorten customer payback periods on replacing older equipment with energy-efficient models, building 6- to 18-month project backlog into 2027.5
Low capital expenditures of $135.6M in FY2025 (1.77% of revenue) allow management to guide approximately 95% conversion, supporting consistent programmatic M&A that adds ~2.5% to annual .
We assign Ingersoll Rand a Sell rating with a Fair Value of $61.46 per share, indicating -21.0% implied return from the analysis price of $77.78. At current trading levels, the market prices Ingersoll Rand at a 26.6% premium to intrinsic value and 19.34x forward earnings. While the company possesses high operational quality, a Narrow economic moat, and resilient US industrial exposure ($3,189.9M in FY2025 revenue), this premium leaves no room for execution error amidst European order contraction and China pricing headwinds.357
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (NYSE: IR) is a global provider of mission-critical flow creation, air compression, and industrial solutions. The company operates through two primary reporting segments: Industrial Technologies & Services (ITS) and Precision & Science Technologies (PST). In FY2025, ITS generated $6,056.4 million (79.2% of consolidated revenue of $7,650.9 million), providing air compression systems, blowers, and vacuum pumps supported by a sticky installed base driving recurring aftermarket parts and services.
Precision & Science Technologies generated $1,594.5 million in FY2025 revenue (20.8% of sales), specializing in highly engineered positive displacement pumps, liquid and gas flow management, and specialized medical and lab equipment. By geography, the United States is the primary market, generating $3,189.9 million in FY2025 (41.7% of total revenue), followed by EMEA at $2,601.5 million (34.0%), Asia Pacific at $1,247.4 million (16.3%, with China accounting for $789.5 million), and Other Americas at $612.1 million (8.0%).
A macro stress scenario where European order deferrals spill over into North America, domestic Chinese original equipment pricing pressure persists, and corporate costs exceed the guided $170M ceiling would compress consolidated operating margins toward 13.5% (down from 14.96% in FY2025). Under these conditions, free cash flow conversion would fall below the guided 95% target, while a 100 bps expansion in WACC from 9.08% toward 10.1% alongside terminal P/E de-rating to 15.0x would compress intrinsic equity value toward the low-end fair value estimate of $27.12.
Ingersoll Rand derives its narrow economic moat from high customer switching costs and an expansive global installed base across its core Industrial Technologies & Services (ITS) segment, which generated $6,056.4M or 79.2% of consolidated FY2025 revenue. Flow-control machinery, air compressors, and vacuum systems are mission-critical components embedded into customer manufacturing and chemical processing lines. Because the initial equipment purchase cost represents only a small fraction of the total lifetime electricity consumption and potential cost of facility downtime, industrial operators show strong reluctance to substitute unproven alternatives, locking in profitable parts, consumables, and maintenance service contracts throughout 10- to 20-year equipment lifecycles.
Global scale, specialized distribution networks, and the Ingersoll Rand Execution Excellence (IRX) operating system reinforce entry barriers by streamlining operational execution and localized product delivery. Core compressor demand in the United States ($3,189.9M in FY2025 revenue) remains resilient, insulated by deep commercial distribution partnerships and rapid field-service response capabilities. Furthermore, rising power prices shorten payback periods for replacing older, less efficient compressors, accelerating customer upgrade momentum.
However, the moat is bounded at Narrow rather than Wide due to the presence of substantial heavy capital equipment exposure where original equipment sales face cyclical tender competition. Particularly in China ($789.5M in FY2025 ), pricing pressure among original equipment manufacturers created measurable segment margin in Q2 2026. Consequently, consolidated of 14.96% trails premium instrumentation peers such as Ametek at 26.18% and Parker-Hannifin at 23.46%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($61.46). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $849.1M after modeled reinvestment of $115.8M, with terminal value at 74.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Even in a scenario where full-year results exceed the top end of guidance, the market valuation already prices in substantial earnings acceleration, leaving the fair value range below current trading levels.
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.1% and industry capex-to-depreciation is 0.68, confirming disciplined reinvestment below depreciation rates across industrial machinery peers. Ingersoll Rand maintains even leaner operations, posting FY2025 capex of $135.6M or 1.77% of sales. Because specific sector capacity, supply lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable in the data packet, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.6
An accelerating replacement upcycle where elevated industrial electricity costs shorten customer payback periods, converting 2027 project backlogs into double-digit organic growth and expanding operating margins toward 17.5%.
A cyclical downturn where long-cycle project deferrals in Europe ($2,601.5M FY2025 sales) spread into North America, compounding original equipment price competition in China and dragging organic growth below 1.0%.
A 0.0% weight is recommended in alignment with the sell rating. At current trading levels, Ingersoll Rand trades at a 26.6% premium to the fair value midpoint of $61.46, leaving an unfavorable risk-reward skew.
Given the sell rating and elevated valuation (trading at $77.78 vs $61.46 fair value midpoint), risk management mandates total avoidance of new long exposure and prompt harvesting of existing gains. Portfolios holding legacy positions should utilize market liquidity to execute an orderly exit, eliminating exposure to European project deferrals, China original equipment margin pressure, and potential valuation multiple de-rating toward cyclical machinery averages.
Ingersoll Rand's Fair Value of $61.46 per share sits 21.0% below the current trading price of $77.78. Value investors should avoid the stock as it offers negative risk-adjusted returns and a 26.6% valuation premium under a 9.08% WACC.23
Although the company exhibits high-quality compounding metrics, including ~95% free cash flow conversion and disciplined capex at 1.77% of revenue, full-year organic growth of 1% to 3% does not justify paying 19.34x forward earnings.3
We recommend a Sell rating on Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR). At $77.78 per share as of October 5, 2026, the stock trades at a 26.6% premium to our intrinsic Fair Value of $61.46 (-21.0% implied return). While Ingersoll Rand is an operationally sound business with a Narrow moat and guided 95% free cash flow conversion, the market is pricing in aggressive terminal compounding while ignoring real European project delays and China original equipment margin dilution.35
At 19.34x forward earnings and a cost of capital of 9.08%, risk is heavily skewed to the downside. Investors should use current trading strength to trim or exit positions, reallocating capital toward industrial peers trading at discounts to intrinsic value.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
In the Bear scenario, industrial capital project deferrals in Europe deepen and spill into North America, while persistent price competition in China original equipment erodes gross profitability. High operating leverage and corporate overhead stickiness compress consolidated operating margins, leading free cash flow conversion to fall below guided levels and depressing cash generation.
EMEA generated $2,601.5M (34.0% of FY2025 revenue), where organic orders fell low double digits in Q2 2026 due to project delays. Management guidance relies on 1% to 3% full-year organic growth. If EMEA order deferrals spread to North America ($3,189.9M in FY2025 revenue), organic growth falling below 1.0% collapses top-line compounding.57
China revenue of $789.5M created significant margin pressure in Q2 2026, leading management to project full-year ITS margins below FY2025. Compounded by sticky corporate costs ($49M in Q2 2026), intensified price competition drags consolidated operating margin from FY2025's 14.96% below 13.5%.567
The base valuation assumes a terminal P/E of 18.5x relative to current forward P/E of 19.34x. Cyclical machinery peer Cummins trades at 15.28x forward P/E. If Ingersoll Rand's organic growth stalls and the market re-evaluates IR as a cyclical machinery manufacturer rather than a premium automation peer, forward valuation multiple de-rating toward 15.0x drives substantial capital loss.34
Ingersoll Rand carries $4,849.5M in total debt with pre-tax cost of debt at 6.24% and current liabilities of $2,066.3M. Base computed WACC is 9.0757%. If debt refinancing spreads widen and equity beta expands above 1.095, WACC increasing by over 100 bps severely penalizes long-duration enterprise cash flows.236
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Signals that European blower and vacuum project delays are deepening into structural capex retrenchment rather than temporary phasing, impairing 34.0% of consolidated sales ($2,601.5M in FY2025).
Current:Down low double digits in Q2 2026
Alert ifNegative organic order growth for two consecutive quarters
Indicates that original equipment price competition in China and corporate overhead inflation cannot be offset by commercial pricing or direct material productivity.
Current:14.96% in FY2025
Alert ifConsolidated operating margin falling below 13.5%
Demonstrates persistent overhead cost stickiness beyond non-recurring incentive compensation true-ups, permanently reducing consolidated EBIT and free cash flow conversion.
Current:$49M in Q2 2026
Alert ifFull-year unallocated corporate costs exceeding $180M (vs $170M guidance)
Falsifies the core thesis that ITS installed base recurring aftermarket demand insulates top-line compounding from broader industrial economic slowdowns.
Current:Guided full-year organic growth of 1% to 3% for FY2026
Alert ifConsolidated organic revenue growth falling below 1.0% YoY
Refinancing debt obligations ($4,849.5M total debt) under elevated interest rates alongside equity beta expansion above 1.095 increases enterprise capital costs and contracts fair value.
Current:9.08%
Alert ifWeighted average cost of capital exceeding 10.1%
Ingersoll Rand generates substantial economic profit through high aftermarket recurring revenues and asset-light operations (capex at 1.77% of FY2025 revenue of $7,650.9M). While unadjusted reported return on invested capital of 7.47% to 7.75% is constrained by accumulated goodwill from past business combinations, cash returns on tangible invested capital comfortably exceed the computed WACC of 9.08%, supported by guided ~95% free cash flow conversion.256
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The Base scenario models steady industrial compounding supported by ITS installed base aftermarket recurring revenues and disciplined execution. Operating margins expand gradually as corporate costs normalize to ~$170M and back-half direct material productivity materializes. International project deferrals in Europe and OE margin drag in China are absorbed as 6- to 18-month project backlog converts into 2027 revenue.57
In the Bull scenario, rising industrial electricity costs dramatically accelerate compressor upgrade cycles across North America and Europe, driving double-digit organic order growth and swift backlog conversion through 2027. PST segment margins expand toward the mid-30s while direct material productivity and mix improvements push consolidated operating margins toward peer-leading levels, accelerating free cash flow compounding.5
Results tracking within guided corridors confirm baseline compounder performance but do not bridge the valuation gap to current market quotes.
An execution miss driven by worsening project deferrals in Europe or continued margin degradation in China would validate the bear thesis and accelerate valuation multiple compression.
Earnings quality is structurally sound, evidenced by guided free cash flow conversion of approximately 95% and modest stock-based compensation of $53.0M in FY2025 (0.69% of revenue), which remains below the industrial benchmark of 0.90%. However, the wide variance between GAAP diluted EPS of $1.45 ($581.4M net income) and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.45 to $3.57 reflects heavy non-cash acquisition amortization, requiring investors to anchor on cash generation rather than adjusted accounting metrics.56
Post-earnings estimate momentum remained flat across consensus revisions following the Q2 earnings event, with FY2026 EPS consensus holding at $3.50 before drifting to $3.55, and FY2027 EPS consensus holding at $3.85 before drifting to $3.92. Revenue revision cohorts similarly remained flat around the release before reflecting the updated 4.5% to 6.5% top-line guidance.15
ITS accounts for 79.2% of consolidated sales ($6,056.4M in FY2025); sustaining organic growth confirms installed base stability.7
EMEA generated 34.0% of FY2025 sales ($2,601.5M); order stabilization is necessary to prove project delays are timing-related.7
Corporate costs surged to $49M in Q2 2026; quarterly run-rates must normalize to achieve the guided $170M annual cap.5
High cash conversion underpins the mature compounder thesis and funds bolt-on acquisitions without equity dilution.
| $5.15B |
| $5.92B |
| $6.88B |
| $7.24B |
| $7.65B |
| +10.4% |
| Gross profit | $1.99B | $2.33B | $2.88B | $3.17B | $3.34B | +13.8% |
| Operating income | $565.7M | $817.3M | $1.16B | $1.30B | $1.14B | +19.3% |
| Net income | $562.5M | $604.7M | $778.7M | $838.6M | $581.4M | +0.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.34 | $1.47 | $1.90 | $2.06 | $1.45 | +2.0% |
| EBITDA | $1.02B | $1.28B | $1.65B | $1.83B | $1.57B | +11.3% |
| R&D | $74.0M | $91.3M | $108.2M | $116.6M | $114.3M | +11.5% |
| SG&A | $1.03B | $1.10B | $1.27B | $1.34B | $1.44B | +8.8% |
Ingersoll Rand exhibits consistent cash generation across industrial cycles. Operating cash flow reached $860.3M in FY2022 following free cash flow of $551.4M in FY2021. Capital expenditure requirements remain low, with FY2025 capex of $135.6M representing 1.77% of revenue, and normalized maintenance capex estimated at $108.5M (80% of total capex). With guided FY2026 free cash flow conversion of approximately 95%, free cash flow to firm is projected to reach $849.1M in FY2026 and compound toward $1,060.3M by FY2030.3568
Capital allocation emphasizes programmatic bolt-on M&A and share repurchases over cash dividends. In FY2025, stock-based compensation of $53.0M was offset by repurchases. The dividend payout is low at $0.08 per share annually. Total debt stood at $4,849.5M at FY2025 ($4,906.7M as of 2026-10-05), resulting in a debt weight of 13.99% against market equity of $30,178.6M (86.01% equity weight). Management continues deploying free cash flow into acquisitions that contribute approximately 2.5% to top-line growth.
Headline ROIC appears muted due to accumulated goodwill from historical acquisitions, but underlying cash return on tangible capital remains robust. As operating margin expands from 14.96% in FY2025 toward 16.0% in FY2027 and 17.0% in FY2030, economic value creation will steadily expand.
Unadjusted reported ROIC of 7.47% to 7.75% sits below the computed WACC of 9.08% due to $8.48B in merger goodwill. However, cash return on tangible capital exceeds cost of capital, supported by low capex intensity (1.77% of revenue) and ~95% guided free cash flow conversion.
FY2025 capital expenditures were $135.6M, representing 1.77% of $7,650.9M in revenue, and management guides to ~95% free cash flow conversion for FY2026.
The business model converts the vast majority of operating profits directly into free cash flow ($849.1M projected for FY2026), providing ample internally generated liquidity for programmatic M&A without requiring equity issuance.
United States sales generated $3,189.9M in FY2025 (41.7% of total), whereas EMEA orders dropped low double digits in Q2 2026 and China ($789.5M FY2025 sales) created margin dilution.
Consolidated growth relies heavily on steady North American industrial demand to carry performance while international project deferrals resolve into 2027.
Unallocated corporate expenses increased to $49M in Q2 2026 compared to $34.6M in Q2 2025, with management guiding full-year corporate overhead to approximately $170M.
Achieving full-year margin targets requires corporate overhead to normalize to ~$35M-$40M per quarter in 2H 2026 alongside expected direct material productivity benefits.
| Revenue | $2,048,800,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $1,186,200,000 |
| Gross profit | $862,600,000 |
| Operating expenses | $482,300,000 |
| Operating income | $380,300,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$123,500,000 |
| Net income | $256,800,000 |
| Total assets | $18,297,200,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $1,248,800,000 |
| Current assets | $4,248,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $8,143,200,000 |
| Current liabilities | $2,066,300,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $10,154,000,000 |
| Net income | $581,400,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $1,355,700,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $505,800,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $53,000,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $215,500,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $1,355,700,000 |
| Cash available | $2,963,200,000 |
| Beginning cash | $1,541,200,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $66,300,000 |
| Investing outflow | $660,600,000 |
| Capex | $135,600,000 |
| Other investing activities | $525,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $1,053,800,000 |
| Share repurchases | $1,018,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $31,800,000 |
| Other financing activities | $4,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $1,248,800,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$660,600,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$1,053,800,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-17 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by operating segment | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technologies And Services | $6.1B | 79.2% | 4.1% |
| Precision And Science Technologies | $1.6B | 20.8% | 12.5% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-10-05 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $1.9B | $279.8M | -$36.6M | $165.6M | $91.2M | $74.4M | $172.7M | $0 | $14.1M | $992K | — | -$82.1M | -$43M | — | $255.8M | $255.8M | $3.7B | 5.3% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $2.4B | $201.8M | $18.4M | $200.5M | $143.7M | $56.8M | $173.8M | $175M | $3.6M | $2B | — | -$60.8M | -$17.4M | $255.8M | $393.3M | $393.3M | $3B | 4.6% | — | 7.9% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $2.7B | $629.5M | $269.4M | $444.5M | $392.3M | $52.2M | $180.4M | $2.8M | $40.7M | $520.9M | — | -$235M | -$373M | $393.3M | $221.2M | $221.2M | $3.7B | 16.5% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $2B | $345.1M | $159.1M | $343.3M | $305.4M | $37.9M | $146.5M | $18.7M | $18.6M | $0 | — | -$54.3M | -$11.5M | $221.2M | $505.5M | $505.5M | $4.9B | 9.6% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $4B | $478.2M | -$33.3M | $914.3M | $872.3M | $42M | $412.5M | $47.5M | $2.1M | $0 | — | -$37.9M | $328.7M | $505.5M | $1.8B | $1.8B | $4.5B | 1.5% | — | 6.9% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $5.2B | $1B | $562.5M | $615.5M | $551.4M | $64.1M | $422.1M | $87.2M | $736.8M | $8.2M | — | $914.3M | -$1.2B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $590.6M | 11.0% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $5.9B | $1.3B | $604.7M | $860.3M | $765.7M | $94.6M | $432.8M | $78.9M | $261.1M | $32.4M | -$655.6M | -$332.9M | -$954M | $2.1B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $3.8B | 13.8% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $6.9B | $1.6B | $778.7M | $1.4B | $1.3B | $105.4M | $459.1M | $51.9M | $263M | $32.4M | -$27.6M | -$1.1B | -$337.5M | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.8B | 16.9% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $7.2B | $1.8B | $838.6M | $1.4B | $1.2B | $149.1M | $482M | $58.8M | $260.7M | $32.3M | $2.1B | -$3.1B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $3.1M | 18.0% | — | 9.5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $7.7B | $1.6B | $581.4M | $1.4B | $1.2B | $135.6M | $505.8M | $53M | $1B | $31.8M | $0 | -$660.6M | -$1.1B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $4.8B | 15.0% | — | 8.3% | — |
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) trades at 19.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.5x compares with a peer median of 19.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Cummins Inc., Emerson Electric Co., AMETEK Inc. and Parker-Hannifin Corporation, as of 2026-10-03 to 2026-10-04.
| Trend | Impact | Note |
|---|
| Industrial Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Mandates | positive | Escalating facility electricity costs shorten customer payback periods on replacing older compressors, driving secular upgrade demand as engineering and EPC constraints ease, building backlog into 2027. |
| North American Manufacturing Reshoring and Automation | positive | Capital investment in domestic production and automation infrastructure anchors long-term volume in the United States, which generated $3,189.9M in FY2025 revenue. |
| Chinese Domestic Equipment Pricing Competition | negative | Intensifying domestic original equipment competition in China ($789.5M in FY2025 revenue) drives gross margin dilution across standard machinery lines. |
Ingersoll Rand holds premier market share in flow creation and compressors via ITS ($6,056.4M in FY2025 sales) and specialized fluid handling via PST ($1,594.5M). Consolidated operating margin of 14.96% in FY2025 is in line with the industry benchmark of 16.1% and ahead of Cummins (11.90%), though trailing specialized peers like Ametek (26.18%) and Parker-Hannifin (23.46%).467
| Why |
|---|
| October 5, 2026 Share Price (~$77.78)3 | Liquidate / Avoid New Commitments | Shares trade at a 26.6% premium to the fair value midpoint ($61.46) with forward P/E of 19.34x, offering negative implied return. |
| Fair Value Midpoint (~$61.46) | Re-evaluate Fundamental Stabilization | At intrinsic fair value, shares would price in baseline cash flows, warranting re-assessment of European order stabilization and China margin performance. |
| Conservative Margin of Safety (~$50.00 - $55.00) | Consider Entry With Margin of Safety | Provides a margin of safety below fair value, adequately discounting macro capital expenditure contraction and discount rate risks. |
Negative organic order growth in EMEA blowers and vacuums and ongoing original equipment margin dilution in China present earnings vulnerability over the coming 6 to 12 months, limiting multiple expansion potential.5
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($9.30) plus discounted terminal value ($27.07) minus signed net debt per current share ($9.28) equals the $27.09 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
| Emerson Electric Co. |
| $90.5B |
| 22.2x |
| 4.9x |
| 16.8x |
| 12.8% |
| 26.9% |
| AME | AMETEK Inc. | $57.7B | 26.3x | 7.3x | 23.8x | 14.6% | 26.2% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $122.7B | 24.7x | 5.7x | 23.1x | 25.1% | 23.5% |
