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Accelerated adoption of Customer-Back Innovation (CBI) proprietary products and broad-based industrial recovery lifting second-half organic growth above guided 4.5%.
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 23.5% over the next 12 months.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is rated Sell with a fair value of $195.02 per share, representing 25.8% downside from the market price of $262.92 as of October 2, 2026,,. While ITW exhibits premier operational quality with a 26.3% operating margin and free cash flow conversion exceeding 100% of net income, current trading multiples of 21.93x forward earnings leave no margin of safety against cyclical moderation in automotive and European industrial end markets.457
Illinois Tool Works Inc. presents a compelling case of an elite operational performer whose equity valuation has detached from underlying fundamental cash generation. Trading at $262.92 as of October 2, 2026, shares carry a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 21.93x. This valuation represents a substantial premium against mature diversified industrial peers such as Cummins Inc. trading at 15.28x forward earnings and United Parcel Service at 11.53x. Discounted at a 9.26% cost of equity and a normalized exit multiple of 18.5x, our synthesized fair value sits at $195.02 per share, establishing an implied downside of -25.8% (or a 34.8% premium in current trading). This wide valuation gap underpins our Sell recommendation.234
Operationally, ITW operates at peak industrial efficiency driven by its proprietary 80/20 Front-to-Back business model. In FY2025, consolidated revenue totaled $16,044 million with operating income of $4,216 million, translating to an operating margin of 26.3%. This performance leads the diversified industrial machinery sector median of 16.1% by over 1,000 basis points, and substantially outpaces peers like Cummins at 11.9% and Honeywell at 20.2%. Enterprise initiatives consistently deliver more than 100 basis points of annual structural margin expansion, contributing 120 basis points in the second quarter of 2026. Management has established a long-term goal of exceeding 30% enterprise operating margin by 2030, supported by 40% full-year incremental margins.357
Cash conversion remains a cornerstone of the business model. In FY2025, capital expenditures were restrained to $419 million, or just 2.61% of revenue, well below the broader industry capex-to-revenue benchmark of 4.1%. This asset-light structure allowed operating cash flow of $3,126 million to translate into $2,707 million in free cash flow. Management projects full-year 2026 free cash flow conversion to exceed 100% of net income. These robust cash flows support disciplined capital return, featuring an unbroken 50-plus year dividend growth record and approximately $1.5 billion in annual share repurchases, reducing outstanding shares to 284.8 million as of October 3, 2026.4
Despite these formidable strengths, top-line compounding has remained muted, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of just 0.23%. For FY2026, management raised organic revenue growth guidance to 3.0% to 4.0% (3.5% midpoint), implying a second-half acceleration to 4.5%. However, significant cyclical exposure persists across Automotive OEM ($3,288 million revenue and $693 million operating profit in FY2025), and EMEA ($4,162 million, or 25.9% of consolidated sales). Any macroeconomic deceleration across European manufacturing or global vehicle builds threatens the aggressive second-half acceleration assumed by consensus estimates of $16,830 million, leaving current elevated valuation multiples vulnerable to de-rating.158
ITW systematically focuses resources on the top 20% of customers and products that drive 80% of revenue and operating profit, pruning low-margin operational complexity and generating over 100 basis points of annual structural margin savings,.5
Consolidated operating margin of 26.3% in FY2025 on $4,216 million in operating profit significantly outpaces the machinery industry median of 16.1%, supported by customer-back co-engineered solutions with high switching costs.7
Disciplined capacity balancing maintains low capital requirements ($419 million in FY2025 , or 2.61% of sales), enabling conversion exceeding 100% of and $2,707 million in FY2025 .
Sell. Illinois Tool Works trades at $262.92 as of October 2, 2026, a 34.8% premium over our fair value midpoint of $195.02, implying a negative return of -25.8%. The investment committee assigns a Sell rating. Despite world-class 80/20 operational execution, high returns on capital, and $1.5 billion in annual buybacks, the stock offers unfavorable risk-adjusted return potential relative to a 9.26% cost of equity.245
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a diversified global manufacturer of highly engineered components, specialized industrial equipment, and consumable systems founded in 1912. The company operates through seven reportable business segments: Automotive OEM ($3,288 million revenue, $693 million operating profit in FY2025),; Test & Measurement and Electronics ($2,825 million revenue, $694 million operating profit),; Food Equipment ($2,699 million revenue, $753 million operating profit),; Welding ($1,890 million revenue, $621 million operating profit),; Construction Products ($1,820 million revenue, $550 million operating profit),; Specialty Products ($1,775 million revenue, $553 million operating profit),; and Polymers & Fluids ($1,765 million revenue, $493 million operating profit),.
In this stress test, cyclical downturns simultaneously hit ITW's two most exposed areas: EMEA ($4,162M FY2025 revenue) and Automotive OEM ($3,288M FY2025 revenue). Organic revenue contracts, while decremental margins of 40% compress enterprise operating margin toward 23.5%. Simultaneously, long-term interest rates lift the cost of equity to 10.25%. Under these conditions, annual EPS drops toward $10.00-$10.50, and valuation falls toward the lower fair value boundary of $164.35, illustrating substantial downside risk from current trading levels of $262.92.
Illinois Tool Works maintains a Wide economic moat supported by switching costs in mission-critical engineered components, proprietary Customer-Back Innovation (CBI) intellectual property, and a proprietary 80/20 Front-to-Back operating system. The company's ROIC of 27.89% dramatically exceeds both the computed WACC of 8.7107% and cost of equity of 9.2554%, justifying a 10-year competitive advantage horizon.
The core moat advantage stems from decentralized specialization across seven reportable segments. In Automotive OEM ($3,288M FY2025 revenue) and Test & Measurement and Electronics ($2,825M FY2025 revenue), ITW engineers highly specialized components that represent minimal overall system cost but high operational consequence, discouraging customer switching. Simultaneously, enterprise 80/20 initiatives continually prune low-value complexity, providing over 100 basis points of annual structural margin improvement.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($195.02). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.9B after modeled reinvestment of $515.7M, with terminal value at 79.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
An operational upside surprise exceeding guidance would demonstrate accelerated Customer-Back Innovation market share gains and operating margin expansion, closing the gap toward Potential value of $222.75.
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.10% and industry capex-to-depreciation is 0.68, indicating widespread capital discipline and subdued manufacturing investment across the broader machinery sector. ITW invested $419M in capex (2.61% of revenue) in FY2025, well below peer reinvestment rates.7
Global manufacturing capex re-accelerates, driving commercial construction, factory automation, and automotive retooling. Demand surges across Welding and Test & Measurement, lifting organic growth to 4.5%-5.0% and generating 40%+ incremental margins.
High benchmark interest rates (risk-free rate 5.24%) and sluggish European activity ($4,162M EMEA in FY2025) cause protracted industrial deferrals. Slower automotive builds pressure OEM revenue ($3,288M in FY2025), dragging organic growth toward 0.5% to 1.5%.
Under our Sell rating, no portfolio weight is warranted. Shares trading at $262.92 as of October 2, 2026 stand at a 34.8% premium to our central fair value of $195.02 and sit well above the bull-case upper boundary of $222.75. Investors should hold zero position.4
Investors currently holding ITW should prioritize capital preservation and execute an orderly position liquidation. ITW trades at a substantial 34.8% premium over house fair value of $195.02, leaving no margin of safety against potential cyclical earnings deceleration or broader multiple contraction toward peer machinery levels (15.3x - 17.5x). Capital should be reallocated to industrial opportunities offering positive intrinsic margins of safety.
At $262.92 per share, ITW is valued at a forward P/E of 21.93x, a substantial premium over diversified peers like Cummins at 15.28x and UPS at 11.53x. With an implied downside of 25.8% to our centralized fair value of $195.02, risk-adjusted expected return is deeply negative relative to a 9.26% cost of equity.234
ITW maintains an exceptional 50-plus year dividend growth track record underpinned by an asset-light model ($419 million capex in FY2025) and free cash flow conversion exceeding 100% of net income. Existing taxable income accounts may hold positions to capture secure cash distributions, but new capital should not be allocated at current elevated market prices.
We recommend a Sell rating on Illinois Tool Works Inc. as the market price of $262.92 as of October 2, 2026 stands 34.8% above our centralized fair value midpoint of $195.02, delivering an implied return of -25.8%. While ITW is an exceptional business with a wide economic moat and 26.3% operating margins, trading at 21.93x forward earnings fully prices in management's multi-year execution through 2030 without providing an adequate risk buffer against cyclical exposure in automotive and European industrial manufacturing.457
Investors should trim or exit equity holdings to reallocate capital into assets offering returns exceeding our 9.26% cost of capital hurdle rate. With consensus expectations embedding an aggressive acceleration to 4.5% organic growth in the second half of 2026 and full-year revenue of $16,830 million, any execution delay or end-market softening could trigger substantial toward machinery peer levels of 15.3x.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
In this downside path, persistent European industrial contraction and slowing automotive build rates restrict revenue compounding. Operating leverage turns negative, holding enterprise operating margins flat despite internal operational improvements. While free cash flow supports baseline commitments, earnings deceleration prompts valuation multiple contraction toward peer benchmarks.
Automotive OEM is ITW's largest segment, generating $3,288M in revenue and $693M in operating income in FY2025,. A global automotive production slowdown combined with tier-1 customer pricing pushback would compress segment margins toward machinery peer levels such as CMI's 11.90%, driving enterprise operating margins below the 23.5% trigger level and reducing fair value by an estimated 24.5%.38
EMEA contributed $4,162M of revenue in FY2025 (25.9% of consolidated total), while Welding generated $1,890M. Prolonged industrial stagnation across Europe and customer capex freezes would turn organic revenue negative, breaching the -1.5% trigger and failing management's 3% to 4% growth target, reducing fair value by an estimated 31.2%.58
ITW trades at a forward P/E of 21.93x, commanding a significant multiple premium over diversified industrial peers such as CMI at 15.28x and UPS at 11.53x. If organic revenue growth continues at historical rates (5-year CAGR of 0.23%), the market may de-rate ITW below 17.5x, eliminating the multiple premium and reducing fair value by an estimated 20.0%.34
With the risk-free rate at 5.24% and computed cost of equity at 9.2554%, persistent inflation pressures driving long-term benchmark yields 100 bps higher would push the cost of equity above 10.25%, sharply discounting terminal cash flows and reducing fair value by an estimated 18.5%.2
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Operating margin dropping below the low end of guided 26.5% to 27.5% signals that enterprise 80/20 initiatives (>100 bps target) are failing to offset input cost inflation or decremental volume deleverage.
Current:26.28%
Alert if< 26.50%
Organic growth slowing to 1.00% or below indicates European manufacturing stagnation and automotive OEM build contraction are overpowering North American stability, falsifying top-line recovery assumptions.
Current:3.5%
Alert if<= 1.00%
Capex rising above $600M indicates capacity misallocation or unanticipated capital intensity, breaking the asset-light 80/20 model and reducing free cash flow conversion below the guided 100% threshold.
Current:$419M (2.61% of revenue)
Alert if> $600M
Valuation multiple de-rating below 17.50x toward machinery peers like CMI at 15.28x indicates loss of investor willingness to pay a premium multiple for ITW's low top-line compounding profile.
Current:21.93x
Alert if< 17.50x
Free cash flow conversion falling below 85% contradicts management guidance to exceed 100% of net income, indicating inventory build or cash collection delays that threaten the $1.5B annual share repurchase commitment.
Current:88.3%
Alert if< 85.0%
This operational differentiation produces enterprise operating margins of 26.28% in FY2025, expanding toward the guided 26.5% to 27.5% range for FY2026. This profitability profile stands far above diversified machinery peers such as CMI at 11.90%, UPS at 9.05%, HON at 20.25%, and ROK at 20.97%, as well as the broader machinery industry benchmark of 16.10%.
The durability of ITW's moat is reinforced by global local-for-local manufacturing, where operations in North America ($8,480M FY2025 revenue), EMEA ($4,162M), and Asia Pacific ($3,079M) insulate supply lines from tariff shocks,,. While temporary price/cost lags dilute margins by 40 bps in inflationary quarters, regular contract resets restore full-year incremental margins toward 40%.
Returns on invested capital of 27.89% substantially exceed both the computed cost of equity of 9.2554% and computed WACC of 8.7107%, generating an economic spread exceeding 1,900 basis points across business cycles.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Under the base path, ITW delivers disciplined operational execution across operating segments. Free cash flow conversion exceeds guided benchmarks, supporting dividend compounding and regular share repurchases. Discounted at the house cost of equity with normalized terminal valuation multiples, this yields the central Fair value of $195.02.25
Global industrial demand accelerates across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. Accelerated adoption of Customer-Back Innovation products expands market share while operational cell efficiencies deliver strong incremental margins. Free cash flow conversion exceeds net earnings, funding accelerated buybacks that expand diluted share compounding and lift intrinsic valuation toward Potential value of $222.75.5
Results meeting guidance midpoints confirm steady operational execution but leave $262.92 trading well above Fair value of $195.02.
A guidance miss would confirm that cyclical headwinds in European manufacturing and automotive build rates are overwhelming operational cost initiatives, accelerating valuation multiple contraction toward peer machinery averages.
Earnings quality is robust. Net income in FY2025 is backed by strong GAAP operating income and operating cash flow. Free cash flow conversion demonstrates high cash generation, and management guidance targets full-year cash conversion to exceed net income. Stock-based compensation expense remains minimal relative to net earnings. Working capital discipline is strong and results are free of aggressive capitalization policies.4567
Measures whether enterprise initiatives continue delivering operational savings toward management long-term targets,.5
Confirms whether cash generation sustains guided conversion targets to support guided share repurchase execution.5
| $14.46B |
| $15.93B |
| $16.11B |
| $15.90B |
| $16.04B |
| +2.6% |
| Gross profit | $5.97B | $6.50B | $6.79B | $6.94B | $7.08B | +4.4% |
| Operating income | $3.48B | $3.79B | $4.04B | $4.26B | $4.22B | +4.9% |
| Net income | $2.69B | $3.03B | $2.96B | $3.49B | $3.07B | +3.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.51 | $9.77 | $9.74 | $11.71 | $10.49 | +5.4% |
| EBITDA | $3.66B | $4.18B | $4.04B | $5.11B | $4.65B | +6.2% |
| R&D | $239.0M | $269.0M | $284.0M | $292.0M | $302.0M | +6.0% |
| SG&A | $2.36B | $2.58B | $2.62B | $2.68B | $2.78B | +4.2% |
In FY2025, ITW generated $3,126M in cash flow from operations and invested $419M in capital expenditures (2.61% of revenue), resulting in $2,707M of free cash flow. Stock-based compensation was modest at $69M. Management's guidance for full-year free cash flow conversion to exceed 100% of net income is supported by an asset-light operating model where maintenance capex is estimated at $356M (85% of total capex). True distributable owner earnings reached $3,107M ($10.91 per share). This consistent cash generation easily supports the $1.5B annual share repurchase program and ongoing dividend distributions without stressing the balance sheet.567
ITW's capital allocation philosophy prioritizes shareholder returns through organic reinvestment, growing dividend distributions, and systematic share buybacks. Capital expenditures were $419M in FY2025, well below the broader machinery industry benchmark of 4.10% of revenue, reflecting the capital efficiency of the 80/20 operating system. Management has guided approximately $1.5B in annual share repurchases for FY2026, mirroring FY2025 repurchases of $1.5B and reducing shares outstanding to 284.8M. The company maintains a 50+ year dividend growth record with a current annual payout of $6.88 per share. M&A is highly disciplined; large acquisitions are avoided in favor of small, highly targeted bolt-ons that fit 80/20 criteria. Balance sheet leverage remains conservative, with total debt of $9,694M against market capitalization of $74.88B.
ITW's wide economic profit spread is sustained by high capital turnover and disciplined capacity management under the 80/20 operating model. Because maintenance capex is only $356M (85% of $419M total capex), invested capital remains lean relative to operating profit of $4,216M, preserving superior returns through industrial cycles.
ROIC of 27.89% dramatically exceeds computed WACC of 8.7107% and cost of equity of 9.2554%, generating an economic profit spread exceeding 1,900 basis points.
Operating income was $4,216M in FY2025 (26.28% operating margin), guiding to 26.5%-27.5% in FY2026 with enterprise initiatives contributing >100 bps,, compared to the machinery industry benchmark of 16.10% and peer CMI at 11.90%.
ITW possesses a 1,000+ bps profitability cushion over diversified machinery peers, insulating earnings against moderate volume decrements.
Capex was $419M in FY2025 (2.61% of revenue), well below the 4.10% industry benchmark, enabling free cash flow of $2,707M and supporting management guidance for FCF conversion exceeding 100% of net income.
ITW funds its $1.5B annual share repurchase program and growing dividend entirely from organic cash flow without needing external financing.
ITW trades at 21.93x forward earnings and $262.92, representing a 34.8% premium to house central fair value of $195.02, despite a 5-year revenue CAGR of only 0.23% on FY2025 revenue of $16,044M.
The market is pricing in sustained growth rates that conflict with mature industrial compounding realities, leaving equity holders exposed to multiple contraction.
| Revenue | $4,301,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $2,403,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $1,898,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $751,000,000 |
| Operating income | $1,147,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$332,000,000 |
| Net income | $815,000,000 |
| Total assets | $16,148,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $851,000,000 |
| Current assets | $6,200,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $12,922,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $5,126,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $3,226,000,000 |
| Net income | $3,066,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $3,532,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $397,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $69,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $3,126,000,000 |
| Operating outflow | $406,000,000 |
| Cash available | $4,116,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $948,000,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $42,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $521,000,000 |
| Capex | $419,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $102,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $2,744,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $851,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$521,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$2,744,000,000 |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-10-03 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $13.6B | $3.6B | $2B | $2.3B | $2B | $273M | $470M | $39M | $2B | $821M | — | -$532M | -$2.3B | — | $2.5B | $2.5B | $7.8B | 22.5% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $14.3B | $4B | $1.7B | $2.4B | $2.1B | $297M | $462M | $36M | $1B | $941M | — | -$251M | -$1.7B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $7.5B | 24.3% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $14.8B | $4.1B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.4B | $364M | $461M | $40M | $2B | $1.1B | — | -$325M | -$4B | $3.1B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $7.4B | 24.3% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $14.1B | $3.9B | $2.5B | $3B | $2.7B | $326M | $426M | $41M | $1.5B | $1.3B | — | -$183M | -$2.3B | $1.5B | $2B | $2B | $7.8B | 24.1% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $12.6B | $3.1B | $2.1B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $236M | $427M | $42M | $706M | $1.4B | — | -$214M | -$2B | $2B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $8.1B | 22.9% | — | 4.4% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $14.5B | $3.7B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.3B | $296M | $410M | $53M | $1B | $1.5B | — | -$984M | -$2.6B | $2.6B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $7.5B | 24.1% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $15.9B | $4.2B | $3B | $2.3B | $1.9B | $412M | $410M | $63M | $1.8B | $1.5B | $276M | -$110M | -$3B | $1.5B | $708M | $708M | $6.7B | 23.8% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $16.1B | $4B | $3B | $3.5B | $3.1B | $455M | $395M | $69M | $1.5B | $1.6B | $294M | -$403M | -$2.8B | $708M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $7.7B | 25.1% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $15.9B | $5.1B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $2.8B | $437M | $402M | $61M | $1.5B | $1.7B | -$8M | -$144M | -$3.2B | $1.1B | $948M | $948M | $7.1B | 26.8% | — | 8.0% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $16B | $4.6B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $2.7B | $419M | $397M | $69M | $1.5B | $1.8B | $508M | -$521M | -$2.7B | $948M | $851M | $851M | $7.7B | 26.3% | — | 7.7% | — |
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) trades at 21.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.4x compares with a peer median of 13.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Rockwell Automation Inc., Cummins Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and Honeywell International Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
ITW is positioned as an elite, high-margin, asset-light niche supplier with 26.28% operating margins versus the industry benchmark of 16.10%. Its 80/20 decentralized structure allows fast operational adjustments across seven segments without carrying heavy underutilized fixed plant.7
| Action |
|---|
| Why |
|---|
| $195.00 | Observe / Re-evaluate | Represents house base-case fair value of $195.02, where overvaluation is eliminated but an adequate safety margin is not yet established. |
| $165.00 | Evaluate Initial Tranche |
Tactical risk/reward is heavily skewed to the downside given prolonged industrial weakness in Europe ($4,162 million revenue in FY2025) and potential vehicle production slowdowns impacting Automotive OEM ($3,288 million revenue). Any failure to achieve guided second-half organic growth of 4.5% could trigger sharp multiple de-rating.58
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($46.77) plus discounted terminal value ($184) minus signed net debt per current share ($23.99) equals the $206 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
| CMI |
| Cummins Inc. |
| $72.9B |
| 15.3x |
| 2.1x |
| 15.6x |
| 21.1% |
| 11.9% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service Inc. | $79.1B | 11.5x | 0.9x | 8.5x | 29.6% | 9.1% |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | $67.8B | 21.5x | 1.8x | 11.0x | 46.6% | 20.2% |
