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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
JBHT — frequently asked questions
Is J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, JBHT looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 224 versus our fair value of USD 125; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 154. That implies roughly 44.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives JBHT a fair value of USD 125 and a potential value of USD 154. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy JBHT now?
Our latest published rating for JBHT, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Sell. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 224 versus fair value of USD 125; potential value is USD 154. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for JBHT?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is JBHT's rating?
Our latest published rating for JBHT, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 125, the potential value of USD 154, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 224).
Accelerating intermodal conversion and freight market tightening driving mini-bids and peak surcharges,, enabling rapid absorption of pre-funded container capacity without incremental tractor capex, expanding consolidated operating margin toward 9.0% and lifting FY2027 diluted EPS toward the upper consensus estimate of $11.00.
Main risk
Consolidated operating margin falling below 6.0% (vs FY2025 of 7.21%) within the next 12 months.
Sell. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. While the enterprise maintains a narrow economic moat rooted in intermodal scale and dedicated customer stickiness,, the stock's 79.53% market premium over fair value reflects an aggressive multi-year cyclical recovery that leaves no margin of safety against transcontinental pricing softness and railroad cost inflation,.2,4,5,8
Valuation disconnect and downside risks take precedence. J.B. Hunt trades at $223.75 per share, reflecting a forward P/E of 23.87x, well above peer logistics provider C.H. Robinson Worldwide at 17.91x and Copart at 15.32x. Market pricing implies an aggressive 17.29% 10-year earnings growth rate, surpassing our base-case projection of 15.62% and consensus expectations.2,3,4
Operational evidence indicates that while volume recovery is underway, pricing leverage remains constrained. In Q2 2026, management acknowledged unexpected pricing softness in transcontinental intermodal corridors, while rail partners and driver labor exert persistent cost inflation. Consolidated operating margin was 7.21% in FY2025 on $11,999M of revenue and $865.07M of operating income,. Furthermore, the Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage segment incurred an operating loss of -$10.0M on $1,109M of revenue in FY2025,, illustrating intense margin pressure across transactional freight brokerage.4,5,7,8
Offsetting these cyclical margin headwinds are J.B. Hunt's structural narrow-moat advantages, evidenced by an enterprise ROIC of 12.39% that exceeds its 10.25% WACC. The flagship Intermodal (JBI) segment delivered $5,975M in FY2025 revenue (49.8% of consolidated revenue) and $450.0M in operating income,. JBI benefits from proprietary container fleets, high-density rail partnerships, and insourced company drayage drivers,. Concurrently, Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) anchors enterprise profitability, generating $3,376M in revenue and $377.0M in operating income (11.17% operating margin) in FY2025 under long-term index-linked contracts with high customer retention,,.2,5,8
Capital intensity has normalized following prior container expansion, with FY2025 capital expenditures declining to $730.69M and free cash flow expanding to $947.59M. Funded container capacity enables volume growth without immediate equipment additions,. However, customer concentration remains a factor to monitor, as top 10 customers account for 33% of revenue and the largest customer generates 8% across all operating segments. Because current market pricing leaves no margin of safety against potential execution headwinds, we maintain a Sell rating.5,6,7,8
Premier Intermodal Scale and Rail Integration
JBI accounts for 49.8% of consolidated revenue ($5,975M in FY2025) and benefits from pre-funded container equipment and company drayage, allowing operating leverage to expand as load volume grows without heavy near-term capex,,.5,8
Resilient Dedicated Contract Profitability
DCS generated $377M in operating income on $3,376M revenue in FY2025 (11.17% margin) under long-term contracts with index-linked fuel surcharges, buffering corporate cash generation through freight cycles,,.5,
House recommendation
Sell. The current 23.87x forward P/E multiple prices in an idealized margin recovery to 8.48% while ignoring ongoing transcontinental rate competition and rail partner cost inflation,.4,5
Company overview
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. is a North American surface transportation and logistics company providing intermodal transport, dedicated contract carriage, freight brokerage, final mile delivery, and truckload services across five operating segments: Intermodal (JBI), Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS), Final Mile Services (FMS), and Truckload (JBT),.
In FY2025, consolidated revenue was $11,999M, led by JBI ($5,975M; 49.8% of consolidated revenue) and DCS ($3,376M; 28.1% of consolidated revenue), which together generate over 95% of consolidated operating income,,. The company operates a differentiated model combining company-owned container fleets and drayage with Class I railroad partnerships, serving major enterprise retail and industrial shippers,.
Under a severe macro stress test combining a 300 bps operating margin contraction with an extended freight recession, consolidated operating profit contracts sharply from FY2025 levels of $865.07M. Transcontinental intermodal yields compress under persistent over-the-road trucking supply overhang, while Class I rail partners and unionized driver labor escalate linehaul costs. In this environment, pre-funded container assets sit idle without generating operating leverage, while DCS contracts face customer re-negotiation pressures. Operating cash flows fall from $1,678.27M toward maintenance capital needs ($730.69M capex in FY2025), severely impairing cash conversion (converting net operating profit into free cash flow after capex) and driving intrinsic value toward standalone pricing.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. possesses a narrow economic moat rooted in the structural scale advantages of its Intermodal (JBI) franchise and the high switching costs characterizing its Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) segment,. JBI accounts for approximately half of consolidated revenue ($5,975M in FY2025) and functions as the primary intermodal partner across major Class I railroads,. By pairing proprietary container capacity with insourced company drayage, JBI achieves network density and equipment turn efficiency that allow it to underprice long-haul over-the-road trucking while preserving profitable unit economics,.
The moat is reinforced by DCS, which generated $3,376M in revenue and $377M in operating income in FY2025, maintaining an operating margin of 11.17%. DCS operates under multi-year contracts with specialized fleet configurations, tailored routing technology, and index-linked fuel surcharges, creating substantial operational inertia and steep switching costs for shippers,. This contract structure reliably insulates consolidated operating earnings from spot freight , contrasting sharply with asset-light brokerage models such as peer CHRW, whose sit lower at 5.34%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($124.63). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $596.7M after modeled reinvestment of $198.9M, with terminal value at 73.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
An earnings beat would demonstrate successful volume scaling over pre-funded containers, but does not close the 79.5% valuation premium relative to our synthesized fair value of $124.63,.
In-line
Maintain Sell; Continue orderly reduction or full exit of positions; verify DCS customer retention and monitor transcontinental price negotiations.
Trigger: Quarterly diluted EPS matching consensus expectations with stable consolidated operating margins reflecting steady freight volumes and balanced cost recovery.
Inline results confirm that freight recovery is proceeding at an expected modest pace, leaving shares trading at an unsustainable multiple relative to normalized earnings power.
JBHT capital expenditures declined to $730.69M in FY2025 from elevated prior levels, bringing the ratio of capex to depreciation to 1.02 ($730.69M capex vs $714.79M D&A). Consolidated operating margin of 7.21% in FY2025 sits well below historical cycle peaks (11.0% in 2016 and 8.99% in 2022), while marginal carrier capacity continues to exit the over-the-road trucking industry.5,7
Bull cycle
In a freight upcycle, highway capacity tightening triggers shipper mini-bids and peak surcharges,. JBI rapidly absorbs incremental volumes into its pre-funded container fleet, expanding consolidated operating margins toward 9.0% and driving diluted EPS toward the top of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027).
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
Under our Sell rating, no capital allocation is warranted. Current market valuation of $223.75 reflects a 79.5% premium to our synthesized fair value of $124.63, offering an unfavorable risk-reward profile.4
Risk
Capital preservation is paramount given that the stock trades at $223.75, reflecting a 23.87x forward P/E that significantly exceeds transportation peers (CHRW at 17.91x, CPRT at 15.32x). Holding equity positions at peak-cycle valuation multiples during an uncertain freight recovery exposes investors to severe valuation de-rating risk without adequate margin of safety.
§12 Investor perspectives
Total Return / Institutional Investor
Avoid
Trading at a 79.53% premium to fair value ($124.63) and 23.87x forward P/E offers an uncompelling risk-reward profile with -44.30% implied return.4
J.B. Hunt is rated Sell. Priced at $223.75, the stock trades at a 79.53% premium to our synthesized fair value midpoint of $124.63 (implied return of -44.30%). Although the company possesses structural narrow-moat advantages in intermodal and dedicated fleets,, current market pricing embeds an aggressive cyclical recovery at 23.87x forward P/E against peer median levels (CHRW at 17.91x).3,4,5,8
Investors should reduce exposure or divest positions into cyclical price strength. With DCFintrinsic value indicating $90.31 at a 10.25% and forward earnings indicating $144.89, the risk-reward skew is strongly asymmetric to the downside.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Capital expenditures moderated to $730.69M in FY2025, enabling free cash flow of $947.59M and supporting dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases,,.5,6,7
In the downside scenario, transcontinental intermodal pricing remains suppressed due to persistent over-the-road truckload capacity overhang, while railroad partner cost inflation and driver wage increases outpace rate adjustments. ICS brokerage losses persist, and potential volume defection from top accounts holds operating margins near trough levels around 6.5%, depressing diluted EPS down toward consensus lows,,.
Ways this thesis can break
Protracted freight rate recession with transcontinental pricing competition and Class I railroad cost escalation
Management reported unexpected pricing softness in transcontinental lanes alongside cost inflation from rail providers and driver labor. If consolidated operating margin falls below 6.0% (vs FY2025 of 7.21%), enterprise cash generation contracts severely.5,7
FV impact
-9.5%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Enterprise customer contract defection and retail logistics in-sourcing
The single largest customer revenue share fell from 13% in 2023 to 11% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, with the top 10 representing 33% of revenue. Severe defection across dedicated and intermodal contracts would drag revenue growth below 4.0%, disproving consensus recovery expectations of 14.41%.8
FV impact
-7.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Valuation multiple de-rating toward freight brokerage and transportation peer median
JBHT trades at 23.87x forward P/E against logistics peer CHRW at 17.91x and CPRT at 15.32x. A 20% compression of the 18.0x terminal P/E toward 14.4x severely penalizes terminal capitalization in forward earnings and synthesis.3,4
FV impact
-7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Further revenue share contraction from the largest account (which has declined from 13% in FY2023 to 11% in FY2024 and 8% in FY2025) would indicate freight in-sourcing or lost awards across all five operating divisions.
Valuation multiple compression toward transport peer medians (CHRW at 17.91x, CPRT at 15.32x) invalidates the premium multiple currently embedded in the $223.75 share price.
Persistent and widening operating losses in the Integrated Capacity Solutions brokerage segment confirm structural pressure from digital freight brokers and traditional asset-light peers,.
However, the economic moat is bounded at narrow rather than wide due to transactional commodity exposure in the Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage segment, which posted an operating loss of -$10M on $1,109M of revenue in FY2025,. Furthermore, unexpected pricing softness in transcontinental intermodal lanes and cost inflation from railroad partners and driver labor demonstrate that J.B. Hunt cannot fully escape freight cycle dynamics or unilateral rail cost escalation, supporting a stable 10-year competitive advantage horizon.
JBHT generates an ROIC of 12.39% compared to its computed WACC of 10.25% and moderate cost of equity of 10.64%. The resulting positive economic spread of 214 bps confirms economic value creation even near cyclical trough operating margins (7.21% in FY2025), backed by $1,678.27M in operating cash flow and $947.59M in free cash flow,.2,6,7
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Scale Advantage and Intermodal Network Density — JBI generated $5,975M in revenue (49.8% of consolidated total of $11,999M) and $450M in operating income in FY2025,,. J.B. Hunt maintains long-term Class I rail linehaul agreements and an extensive pre-funded 53-foot container fleet, providing unit cost efficiencies that sub-scale peers cannot replicate,.Wide
02High Switching Costs in Dedicated Contract Services — DCS delivered $3,376M in revenue (28.1% of consolidated) and $377M in operating income in FY2025 (11.17% margin),. Multi-year contractual agreements, dedicated on-site logistics management, customized equipment, and contractual fuel surcharge pass-through mechanisms create substantial client switching costs and renewal rates above 95%,.Moderate
03Insourced Drayage Infrastructure and Fleet Control — J.B. Hunt operates company-owned drayage fleets and employs professional drivers directly, mitigating exposure to volatile spot drayage markets, driver shortages, and carrier selection liabilities that disrupt competitors,,.Moderate
Transcontinental intermodal pricing softness and rail partner cost escalation
high
12-18 months
Utilizing out-of-cycle mini-bids, selective freight pricing, insourced drayage cost optimization, and leveraging pre-funded container capacity to dilute fixed costs,,.5
Spot brokerage margin erosion from digital platforms and aggressive scale brokers
medium
Ongoing
Focusing ICS brokerage on contracted accounts, reducing low-margin transactional exposure, and deploying digital carrier matching to reduce manual cost-to-serve.5
Driver recruitment shortages and escalating driver wage inflation
medium
12-24 months
Offering predictable dedicated regional routes in DCS that return drivers home daily, accompanied by competitive pay structures and high fleet safety standards,.5
Key account contract defection or retail logistics in-sourcing
medium
18-36 months
Bundling services across JBI, DCS, FMS, ICS, and JBT to deepen workflow integration and raise customer switching hurdles,.8
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Operating margin improves from 7.65% in FY2026 to normalized 8.48% by FY2030.7
Diluted EPS tracks consensus targets of $7.29 in FY2026 and $9.99 in FY2027,.1
In the base scenario, freight volumes experience a gradual cyclical recovery, enabling JBI to deploy excess container capacity without heavy capital additions. Consolidated operating margins expand from 7.21% in FY2025 to normalized mid-cycle levels of 8.48% by FY2030, anchored by resilient 11.17% margins in DCS. Free cash flow conversion remains healthy as reinvestment settles between 20% and 28% of NOPAT.5,6,7,8
Diluted EPS reaches the top of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027).1
In the upside scenario, rapid freight market tightening accelerates customer mini-bids and peak surcharges, driving JBI intermodal yields higher and enabling swift absorption of excess container capacity,. Operating leverage expands consolidated operating margins toward 9.0%, matching prior cyclical peaks, while disciplined capex boosts free cash flow and drives diluted EPS toward the top end of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027),.1,5,7
Miss
Maintain Sell; Accelerate full liquidation of remaining exposure; audit early warning thresholds across dedicated contract margins.
Trigger: Quarterly diluted EPS falling short of consensus expectations or consolidated operating margins contracting under railroad linehaul inflation and transcontinental rate pressure.
An earnings miss validates downside risks, confirming that transcontinental pricing weakness and rail partner cost inflation are overwhelming volume gains.
Earnings quality is high and underpinned by clean cash generation with negligible accounting distortion. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $1,678.27M covered reported GAAP net income of $598.28M by 2.81x,. Depreciation and amortization of $714.79M was well aligned with capital expenditures of $730.69M. Effective tax rates remain steady at 23.75%, closely matching management guidance expectations of 24.0% to 24.5%.2,7
Estimate momentum
Consensus estimate momentum has turned downward over the past 30 days. Full-year FY2026 diluted EPS estimates were trimmed 6.86% from $7.82 to $7.29, while fourth-quarter 2026 EPS consensus was cut by 6.10% over 7 days and 10.08% over 30 days, dropping from $2.30 to $2.07. These downward revisions reflect persistent transcontinental pricing headwinds and sticky railroad linehaul cost inflation,.1,5
CurrentSegment operating margin was 7.53% in FY2025 ($450M operating income on $5,975M revenue),; cost-to-serve initiatives delivered progress, but transcontinental pricing remains muted,.
Why it matters
JBI generates 49.8% of consolidated revenue ($5,975M of $11,999M in FY2025); operating leverage across its container fleet is the primary driver of earnings recovery.4
Cash conversion (converting net operating profit into free cash flow after capex) depends on keeping capex near replacement levels ($730.69M vs $714.79M D&A) while absorbing loads into pre-funded containers.
CurrentTop 10 customer share moderated from 36% in FY2023 to 33% in FY2025, with the largest customer accounting for 8% across all five segments,.
Why it matters
High customer revenue and receivables concentration creates volume vulnerability; maintaining contract retention is essential to preserve network density and fleet utilization.
05
Metric:
Brokerage Segment Turnaround (ICS)
CurrentICS recorded an operating loss of -$10M on $1,109M revenue in FY2025,, with management focusing on contract freight and cost controls.
Why it matters
Brokerage operations have created an earnings drag; returning ICS to positive margins is necessary for consolidated EBIT normalization.
Cash flow generation remains exceptionally resilient despite cyclical earnings compression. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,678.27M, converting GAAP net income of $598.28M at an operating cash flow-to-net income ratio of 2.81x. Free cash flow came in at $947.59M, demonstrating strong liquidity as working capital remained controlled and replacement capex was fully funded. Normalized forecast schedules model reinvestment rates between 20% and 28% of NOPAT, sustaining free cash flow above $800M annually.6,7
Capital allocation has turned disciplined following significant prior cycle box additions. FY2025 capital expenditures dropped to $730.69M, essentially matching depreciation of $714.79M (capex/D&A of 1.02). With container capacity already pre-funded, management prioritizes balance sheet strength ($1,403.34M total debt against $21,010.12M market capitalization, yielding a conservative 6.26% debt weight,,), supporting steady dividend growth ($1.80 annualized) and opportunistic share repurchases.
The positive economic spread indicates that J.B. Hunt's asset-advantaged intermodal and dedicated contracts safeguard return on capital even during freight downcycles. As load volumes recover across pre-funded containers without requiring major capital expansion, ROIC is projected to expand toward mid-teens levels as operating margins normalize toward 8.48%.
JBHT's ROIC of 12.39% compares favorably to its computed WACC of 10.25% and moderate cost of equity of 10.64%, producing a positive spread of 2.14 percentage points during a cyclical trough year.
Intermodal and Dedicated segments generate the vast majority of operating profit while brokerage remains an earnings drag
In FY2025, JBI delivered $450M in operating income and DCS generated $377M, while ICS incurred an operating loss of -$10M,,.
Enterprise profitability is anchored by contracted dedicated services and intermodal rail economics, insulating corporate earnings from spot freight volatility but heavily tying results to rail operational recovery.
Because container equipment was pre-funded in prior cycles, the company can scale volume into a demand rebound without near-term capital intensity spikes.
The largest customer's revenue share declined from 13% in FY2023 to 11% in FY2024 and 8% in FY2025, while top 10 customers represent 33% of revenue.
While single-account concentration is declining, top 10 accounts still represent 32% of trade receivables, requiring continued contract execution across multi-segment partnerships.
Income statement breakdownHow business scale converts into reported profit.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Revenue$12BCost of revenue−$10.4BGross profit$1.6BOperating expenses−$731.6MOperating income$865.1MNon-operating items and tax−$266.8MNet income$598.3M
Financial history data
Revenue
$11,999,096,000
Cost of revenue
$10,402,472,000
Gross profit
$1,596,624,000
Operating expenses
$731,555,000
Operating income
$865,069,000
Non-operating items and tax
-$266,787,000
Net income
$598,282,000
Balance sheet snapshotHow reported assets are held and financed at the selected period.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Assets held asFinanced by
Total assets$7.9BCash$17.3MCurrent assets$1.6BTotal liabilities$4.4BCurrent liabilities$1.9BShareholders’ equity$3.6B
Balance sheet breakdown data
Total assets
$7,927,155,000
Cash
$17,284,000
Current assets
$1,604,190,000
Total liabilities
$4,362,070,000
Current liabilities
$1,935,343,000
Shareholders’ equity
$3,565,085,000
Cash-flow statement breakdownHow cash moved through operating, investing, and financing activities in FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Operating cash reconciliation
Net income$598.3MDepreciation and amortization+$714.8MStock-based compensation+$71.8MOther operating adjustments+$293.5MOperating cash flow$1.7B
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) trades at 23.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.5x compares with a peer median of 15.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc., Generac Holdings Inc., Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and Copart Inc., as of 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-07.
Bear cycle
In a prolonged freight downcycle, excess truckload carrier capacity depresses spot freight rates. Railroad partners and unionized driver labor escalate linehaul costs, holding consolidated operating margins near 6.5%, prolonging brokerage losses in ICS, and driving diluted EPS down toward consensus lows ($7.10 in FY2026 and $9.00 in FY2027),.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Highway-to-Rail Intermodal Conversion
positive
Shippers increasingly convert long-haul freight from truckload to intermodal rail to reduce transportation costs and lower supply chain carbon emissions.
Dedicated Logistics Outsourcing
positive
Rising driver labor costs, insurance expenses, and compliance requirements lead private corporate fleets to outsource transportation to dedicated contract providers,.
Digital Freight Brokerage Spread Compression
negative
Digital freight matching algorithms and aggressive pricing competition from scale brokers compress transactional spreads in spot freight,.
Positioning
J.B. Hunt is positioned as an asset-advantaged surface transportation compounder with structural cash flow stability. Dedicated Contract Services ($3,376M revenue, $377M operating income in FY2025) provides long-term baseline profitability,, while JBI ($5,975M revenue, $450M operating income) serves as the high-volume engine positioned to capture highway-to-rail conversion as freight demand accelerates,.8
Re-evaluate free cash flow durability and model lower equity distributions.7
Existing dividend holders benefit from a safe payout supported by $947.59M in FY2025 free cash flow, but incremental capital allocation should be avoided given severe capital loss risk.6
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($29.65) plus discounted terminal value ($80.59) minus signed net debt per current share ($19.93) equals the $90.31 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
