Price versus value
- Price
- $151.77
- Fair value
- $86.32
- Potential value
- $114.56
- As of
- 2026-10-01
Main upside reason
The largest operational opportunity is accelerating service contract attachment and data center cooling deployments within Americas Building Solutions ($15,831M in FY2025), driving operating margin expansion from 11.99% toward peer levels like Honeywell's 20.25% and lifting intrinsic value toward our Potential value of $114.56.
Main risk
Operating cash flow conversion failing to recover, with operating cash flow to net income remaining below 0.50x and operating cash flow stagnating below $1.5B annually.
We assign Johnson Controls International plc a Sell rating, as the shares trade at a substantial premium to intrinsic business value following weak cash flow conversion and lagging operating margins.4
The house rating is Sell. For an ordinary investor, this rating means that capital is exposed to severe valuation risk at recent trading levels, indicating that investors should trim holdings, reallocate funds to higher-return industrial opportunities, and avoid new capital commitments.
The report was prepared at a price of $151.77 on October 1, 2026. This trading price sits well above the house valuation range, standing 75.8% above our Fair value of $86.32, which implies -43.1% downside return. The report-date price also sits 32.5% above our Potential value of $114.56, demonstrating that even an optimistic operating outcome fails to support the share price.
