Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, JPM screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 306 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 263 (range USD 190–USD 324), implying roughly 14.1% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is JPM's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives JPM a composite fair-value range of USD 190–USD 324, with a midpoint of USD 263. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy JPM now?

Our latest published rating for JPM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Reduce with a confidence score of 88/100. JPMorgan Chase & Co. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 306 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 263. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for JPM?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-08 flags for JPMorgan Chase & Co. are: Severe Credit Cycle Reversion; Aggressive NIM Compression; Regulatory Capital Squeeze.

What is JPM's rating?

Our latest published rating for JPM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Reduce, with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 190–USD 324) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 306).

What archetype is JPM?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-08, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is classified as a financial stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for JPM.

What is JPM's intrinsic value?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

How do you calculate JPM's fair value?

Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.

Why does JPM use cost of equity instead of WACC?

EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.

What is owner earnings for JPM?

Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.

JPM intrinsic value: discounted earnings and owner earnings

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-08; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

JPMorgan Chase is a best-in-class, universally diversified financial institution with a fortress balance sheet, consistent market share gains across cycles, and scale advantages that provide a structural premium over peers. Fair value range: low $190, high $324, with mid-point at $263.

INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

JPM intrinsic value questions

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

JPM — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, JPM screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 306 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 263 (range USD 190–USD 324), implying roughly 14.1% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Consecutive quarters of net charge-offs exceeding 1.5%.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
NIM compression exceeding 20 basis points sequentially.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Significant deceleration in consumer credit card spend volume.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$121.65B	$128.70B+5.8%	$158.10B+22.8%	$177.56B+12.3%	$182.45B+2.8%	+10.7%
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$48.33B	$37.68B-22.0%	$49.55B+31.5%	$58.47B+18.0%	$57.05B-2.4%	+4.2%
EPS (diluted)	$15.36	$12.09	$16.23	$19.75	$20.02	+6.8%
EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—	—
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	—	$45.55B	$51.06B	$56.33B	$60.02B	+7.1%

JPM intrinsic value questions

JPM — frequently asked questions

JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. fair value $190–$324

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of JPM also follow

§2 Bear case

Severe Credit Cycle Reversion

Aggressive NIM Compression

Regulatory Capital Squeeze

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.