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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NOC — frequently asked questions
Is Northrop Grumman Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-22, NOC looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 539 versus our fair value of USD 575; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 821. That implies roughly 6.6% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, gives NOC a fair value of USD 575 and a potential value of USD 821. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Northrop Grumman Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NOC now?
Our latest published rating for NOC, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Hold. Northrop Grumman Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 539 versus fair value of USD 575; potential value is USD 821. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NOC?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-22 documents Northrop Grumman Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NOC's rating?
Our latest published rating for NOC, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 575, the potential value of USD 821, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 539).
The biggest opportunity lies in the long-term margin and cash flow inflection as B-21 Raider and Sentinel programs transition from cost-plus development and early LRIP into mature, fixed-price full-rate production.
Main risk
Manufacturing learning curve friction, parts shortages, or engineering rework on remaining B-21 Raider low-rate initial production (LRIP) lots.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is rated Hold with an intrinsic fair value of $574.82 per share, offering 6.58% upside relative to its prevailing trading price of $539.31 as of October 21, 2026. While sole-source nuclear triad positions and a record $109.6 billion backlog provide exceptional long-term visibility, near-term valuation is balanced against an elevated capital expenditure ramp to $2.1 billion in 2027 (4.5% of sales) and low-rate initial production learning curves.3,5
Northrop Grumman's third-quarter 2026 results reinforced the company's robust operational foundation, highlighted by a record contract backlog of $109.6 billion and a quarterly book-to-bill ratio of 1.5x on $16.4 billion in net awards. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for sales between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion, segment operating income of $4.94 billion to $5.04 billion, and an operating margin rate of approximately 11.3%. Long-term demand is secured by the company's multi-decade prime contractor status on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and Sentinel ICBM programs, which insulate top-line revenue from standard commercial volatility.5
Despite this structural demand security, intermediate shareholder returns face capital intensity headwinds. Management projects capital expenditures to approach $1.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026 and reach approximately $2.1 billion, or 4.5% of sales, in 2027, rising sharply from $1.45 billion in FY2025. This facility and tooling expansion funds acceleration capacity for the B-21 bomber and solid rocket motor production. Consequently, share repurchases have contracted sharply to $68 million across the first nine months of 2026 from $1,168 million in the prior-year period, while adjusted free cash flow is guided to $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion in 2026 and $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion in 2027.5,6
Our synthesized fair value of $574.82 per share reflects disciplined valuation triangulation across forward earnings power, multi-stage competitive longevity, and owner earnings. At 17.04x forward earnings, Northrop Grumman trades at a modest 6.18% discount to intrinsic value, which aligns closely with the present-value equivalent ($590.54) of the 12-month analyst consensus target ($630.00) discounted at our 6.68% cost of equity. With learning curve risks still present on remaining low-rate initial production (LRIP) units, the prevailing risk/reward profile supports maintaining a Hold rating.2,3,5
Irreplaceable Franchise Across Strategic Nuclear Deterrence
Northrop Grumman is the sole prime contractor building the Air Force's B-21 Raider bomber and the Sentinel ICBM, cementing multi-decade production, modernization, and sustainment revenues backed by bipartisan national security priorities.5
Record Contract Backlog and Multi-Year Revenue Visibility
Total backlog expanded 15% in 2026 to reach $109.6 billion at Q3 2026, driven by a 1.5x quarterly book-to-bill ratio and $16.4 billion in net awards, providing firm top-line visibility through FY2028.5
Long-Term Margin Expansion from Contract Transition
As developmental cost-plus contracts transition into fixed-price production lots over the next several years, contract margin volatility subsides and program profitability expands toward steady-state targets.5
House recommendation
We maintain a Hold rating because the share price of $539.31 (as of 2026-10-21) closely reflects Fair value at $574.82, balancing sole-source strategic defense franchises against multi-year capital reinvestment requirements.
Company overview
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is a premier global aerospace and defense technology company operating across four principal reporting segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. The company delivers advanced military aircraft, autonomous systems, strategic deterrence missiles, precision munitions, tactical rocket motors, airborne radars, electronic warfare equipment, secure communications, and national security space platforms.
The enterprise is overwhelmingly anchored by U.S. government contracts, which generated $35,964 million, or 85.7% of total FY2025 revenue ($41,954 million). International defense markets account for the remainder, led by Europe at $3,286 million (7.8%) and Asia Pacific at $1,919 million (4.6%). As the sole-source prime contractor for two of the three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad—the B-21 Raider long-range stealth bomber and the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)—Northrop Grumman holds an irreplaceable strategic position in Western defense architecture.
Under a severe multi-factor stress test combining a $400 million reach-forward EAC loss provision in Aeronautics Systems, a delay in Sentinel engineering milestones, and capex expanding to 4.5% of sales ($2.1 billion) in FY2027, Northrop Grumman's free cash flow would compress toward $2.0 billion. Despite this operational shock, the balance sheet remains sound: cash and cash equivalents of $3,744 million as of September 30, 2026, provide adequate liquidity against total debt of $16,635 million. Fixed charge coverage and investment-grade metrics are preserved given lack of near-term refinancing pressures, but equity returns would be restricted as share repurchases are halted to defend credit standing.
Northrop Grumman Corporation possesses a Wide economic moat rooted in insurmountable customer switching costs, exclusive platform prime contractor designations, and proprietary classified engineering capabilities. Unlike commercial manufacturing enterprises, major defense aerospace primes operate within a monopsonistic or oligopsonistic customer relationship governed by the U.S. Department of War and allied defense ministries. The technical complexity, multi-billion-dollar upfront capital requirements, and multi-decade lifecycles of major strategic weapon systems create an environment where incumbent primes are deeply integrated into national security apparatuses.
Northrop Grumman's most distinct competitive moat source is its position as the sole prime contractor for two legs of the U.S. nuclear triad: the B-21 Raider long-range strike stealth bomber (developed within Aeronautics Systems) and the Sentinel ground-based strategic deterrence ICBM (developed within Defense Systems). Once awarded, replacing a prime contractor on a strategic nuclear deterrence platform is virtually unprecedented in modern defense procurement due to specialized tooling, SCIF infrastructure, intellectual property, and extensive supplier networks. Furthermore, each platform establishes an installed base that generates decades of follow-on sustainment, modernization, and spare parts revenues.
Beyond airframes and missile bodies, Northrop Grumman commands specialized domain capabilities in mission electronics and classified space architecture. The Mission Systems segment ($12.51B in FY2025 revenue and $1.83B in ) provides active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, electronic warfare suites, and secure communications for fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 as well as naval combatants. The company's proprietary semiconductor and quantum microelectronics patents, such as reciprocal quantum logic (RQL), protect technological leadership against peer primes. This wide competitive advantage enables the company to consistently achieve operating returns on capital above its 6.36% cost of capital.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($574.82). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Upgrade the rating; Re-evaluate position allocation upon confirmation of fixed-price contract derisking and accelerating free cash flow conversion.
Trigger: Segment operating margin expanding above guided ranges and FY2026 earnings per share outperforming consensus with positive Raider EAC net adjustments
Sustained margin outperformance would indicate that production learning curve hurdles are surmounted ahead of schedule, expanding fundamental earnings power.
In-line
Maintain Hold; Maintain current portfolio exposure while monitoring 2027 capex ramp progress and cash collection cadence.
Trigger: Full-year revenue and segment operating margin delivering within guided baseline target ranges for FY2026
Aerospace and defense industry benchmarks demonstrate average capex-to-revenue of 0.8% and capex-to-depreciation of 0.95x. In contrast, Northrop Grumman is actively expanding capacity, stepping up capital expenditures to approach $1.0 billion in Q4 2026 and targeting approximately $2.1 billion, or 4.5% of sales, in 2027, up from $1.45 billion in FY2025.5,6
Bull cycle
A synchronized global defense rearmament super-cycle driven by geopolitical instability, NATO allies expanding defense commitments beyond 2% of GDP, and bipartisan U.S. congressional consensus to fully fund and accelerate the nuclear triad modernization recapitalization (B-21 Raider bomber and Sentinel ICBM) alongside accelerated procurement of classified space payloads and precision strike munitions.
Bear cycle
Fiscal austerity or prolonged congressional budget stalemates resulting in extended continuing resolutions, sequestration-like discretionary spending caps, debt ceiling disputes, and production stretch-outs of strategic programs that compress prime contractor top-line growth while fixed-price contract inflation erodes program margins.
§11 Position management
Sizing
2.0-3.0%
Under a Hold rating and an implied upside of 6.58% against our $574.82 fair value, position sizing reflects a neutral core weighting. High revenue visibility from the $109.6 billion backlog protects downside risk, but intermediate capital intensity ($2.1B capex in 2027) and contract learning curve friction limit near-term alpha generation.3,5
Risk
Portfolio risk management requires strict tracking of contract type progression. With cost-plus development contracts shifting toward fixed-price production lots over the next several years, investors should monitor quarterly filings for negative net EAC adjustments. Legislative defense appropriations must be tracked during congressional budget cycles, specifically assessing full funding of Sentinel ICBM and Raider stealth bomber line items. If defense appropriation stretch-outs occur or capital expenditures exceed planned capital intensity targets without commensurate volume delivery, position exposure should be systematically trimmed.
§12 Investor perspectives
Core / Value Investor
Hold
Wide economic moat and multi-decade franchise longevity provide excellent capital preservation, but a modest 6.58% upside spread and near-term capex absorption warrant maintaining existing holdings rather than expanding exposure.3
Income / Dividend Growth Investor
Hold
A dependable dividend supported by $3.1B-$3.5B guided 2026 free cash flow offers steady income, but share repurchases have decelerated ($68M in 9M 2026 vs $1.17B in 9M 2025), limiting near-term total cash return.5
Tactical / Growth Investor
Hold
At 17.04x forward P/E, current valuation reflects fair multiples relative to peers; intermediate upside remains capped until B-21 production acceleration translates into operating earnings outperformance later in the decade.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Hold
We maintain a Hold rating on Northrop Grumman Corporation with an intrinsic fair value of $574.82 per share, offering 6.58% upside against the prevailing market price of $539.31. Northrop Grumman possesses exceptional franchise strength as the sole-source prime contractor for two legs of the U.S. nuclear triad, underpinned by a record $109.6 billion backlog. However, intermediate capital reinvestment requirements ($2.1 billion capex in 2027) and low-rate initial production learning curves balance the near-term risk and reward profile.3,5
Existing shareholders should maintain current position allocations, while prospective investors should await either a wider valuation discount or operational confirmation that low-rate initial production is transitioning smoothly toward fixed-price volume delivery before committing incremental capital.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData covering 2026-12-31 to 2027-12-31 · Published 2026-10-22 · cited for 4 figuresCited in Earnings decision tree
Terminal valuation multiple derates toward historical defense prime trough levels
Production learning curve friction on remaining B-21 LRIP lots triggers negative contract EAC revisions, while capital expenditures stepping up to $2.1 billion in 2027 alongside unbilled receivable working capital drain depresses free cash flow conversion and curtails buybacks, compressing intrinsic value toward $438.24.
Ways this thesis can break
B-21 LRIP manufacturing cost overrun triggers major negative EAC adjustment
Management acknowledged remaining LRIP units still carry production learning curve risks, having absorbed a $477 million B-21 loss provision in 9M 2025. In Q3 2026, Defense Systems operating margin dropped to 10.8% on cost-type content mix, demonstrating ongoing vulnerability to contract EAC shocks. A breach below the 9.5% segment operating margin trigger would impair intrinsic value by an estimated 28.5%.5
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Defense appropriation freeze and nuclear triad procurement stretch-out
Northrop Grumman derives 85.7% ($35.96B) of its revenue from U.S. government contracts. Congressional continuing resolutions, debt ceiling disputes, or procurement delays on Sentinel ICBM and B-21 would break the guided 5-7% 2027 top-line growth trajectory. A drop in annual revenue growth below 1.5% YoY impairs fair value by an estimated 22.0%.5,7
FV impact
-1.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Multiple de-rating to defense prime historical trough on sustained capital intensity
NOC currently trades at 17.04x forward P/E with an elevated PEG ratio of 4.02x. As CapEx ramps to $2.1B in 2027 (4.5% of sales) and buybacks contract ($68M in 9M 2026 vs $1.17B in 9M 2025), multiple contraction of 20% to 13.6x reflects defense cycle derating, reducing fair value by an estimated 19.5%.3,5
FV impact
-7.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Northrop Grumman generates durable economic profit well in excess of its cost of capital. Operating returns on invested capital of ~18% (and third-party reported ROIC of 8.57%) substantially exceed the company's computed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.36% and moderate cost of equity of 6.68%. This positive economic profit spread is sustained by high customer switching costs, classified research and manufacturing infrastructure, and multi-decade prime platform designations.2,5
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs & Classified Infrastructure — Decades of specialized classified engineering, proprietary stealth tooling, secure SCIF facilities, and stringent personnel clearance requirements create insurmountable barriers to entry and massive switching costs for core defense platforms.Wide
02Sole-Source Platform Franchise & Installed Base — Exclusive prime contractor designation for two of the three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad—the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and Sentinel ICBM—secures multi-decade production, modernization, and high-margin sustainment revenue streams.Wide
03Proprietary Intangibles & Advanced Microelectronics — Proprietary technology assets, including reciprocal quantum logic (RQL) and specialized semiconductor foundry capabilities, provide critical electronic warfare and airborne radar advantages that cannot be replicated by merchant suppliers.Moderate
Fixed-Price Development and Low-Rate Initial Production EAC Shocks
medium
12-24 months
Management is advancing through production learning curves and progressively retiring flight test milestones while preparing for contract transition to fixed-price lots with price escalation clauses.5
U.S. Defense Budget Strains, Continuing Resolutions, and Program Stretch-Outs
medium
24-36 months
B-21 Raider and Sentinel represent top-tier national defense priorities with bipartisan congressional commitment, complemented by expanding allied defense sales in Europe.5,7
Prime Peer Competition in Mission Electronics and Space Payloads
low
3-5 years
Differentiated proprietary sensor technologies, classified space heritage, and high book-to-bill ratios (1.5x in Q3 2026) defend domain share against competing aerospace primes.4,5
European defense revenue expands at double-digit rate
Accelerated transition from low-rate initial production to full-rate production across the B-21 Raider bomber and Sentinel ICBM programs expands segment operating margins toward 12.0%, while international allied defense demand drives sales growth at the upper bound of 7.0%, supporting an 8.5% annual EPS growth path and lifting intrinsic value toward $820.75.
Share repurchases moderate to low single-digit annual share count reduction
Northrop Grumman executes steadily against its $109.6 billion backlog, achieving full-year 2026 sales of $43.75B-$44.25B and 2027 top-line growth of 5% to 7%. Segment operating margins expand moderately from 11.3% in 2026 to 11.4%-11.6% by 2030, absorbing the $2.1 billion capex ramp in 2027 while adjusted free cash flow expands from $3.1B-$3.5B to $3.3B-$3.7B. Discounted at a 6.68% cost of equity, this yields a central fair value of $574.82 per share.5
In-line execution validates the baseline multi-year expansion path without shifting intrinsic valuation sufficiently to warrant portfolio adjustments.
Miss
Downgrade the rating; Trim exposure and re-examine contract loss provisions and multi-year cash generation feasibility.
Trigger: Segment operating margin falling below guided baseline expectations or material negative contract EAC adjustments
Negative EAC adjustments would signal persistent manufacturing execution friction, impairing medium-term return on capital and cash flow.
Northrop Grumman's third-quarter earnings quality is solid but reflects mixed structural drivers. Reported operating income closely tracks segment operating profit, with the variance driven by normal corporate expenses and net FAS/CAS operating adjustments. The quarter was free of major reach-forward contract loss provisions, marking stability compared to prior-year program headwinds. Non-operating items provided modest support via pension income and favorable research tax credits that lowered the effective tax rate. Operating cash generation benefited from disciplined trade working capital management and equipment dispositions, though ongoing unbilled receivable absorption continues to reflect working capital requirements typical of ramping major defense programs.
Estimate momentum
Consensus estimate revisions following the Q3 2026 earnings release have remained essentially flat across both revenue and earnings. Full-year 2026 EPS consensus adjusted slightly from $29.00 to $28.98 (-0.09%), while FY2027 EPS consensus adjusted from $30.45 to $30.37 (-0.26%). Annual revenue forecasts similarly saw fractional adjustments: FY2026 revenue shifted from $44.06B to $44.05B (-0.02%) and FY2027 revenue from $46.98B to $46.97B (-0.03%). The absence of material upward or downward momentum confirms that the market views recent operational execution as consistent with established multi-year targets.1
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Raider LRIP EAC Adjustments
CurrentNo loss provision recorded in 9M 2026 following $477M provision in 9M 2025, but management notes learning curve risk persists on remaining LRIP units.
Why it matters
Determines whether Aeronautics segment margins can expand toward guided upper-single-digit levels without unexpected contract write-downs.
Northrop Grumman demonstrates robust operating cash generation, delivering $4,757 million in FY2025 operating cash flow and $1,369 million across the first nine months of 2026 (up 59% YoY). Adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2026 reached $1,810 million, benefiting from $371 million in proceeds from the sale of equipment to a customer and improved trade working capital. However, working capital continues to absorb liquidity via unbilled receivables, which increased by $1,177 million during 9M 2026 to $7,899 million as programs ramp. With CapEx guided to approach $1.0 billion in Q4 2026 and approximately $2.1 billion in 2027, full-year free cash flow is projected at $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion in 2026 and $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion in 2027. Free cash flow conversion relative to net income will remain below peak historical levels until capex normalizes post-2027.5,6
Capital deployment is currently prioritized toward organic reinvestment rather than aggressive shareholder distributions. Northrop Grumman sharply curtailed share repurchases to $68 million in the first nine months of 2026, compared to $1,168 million in 9M 2025 and $1,624 million in FY2025, preserving capital to fund the 2026-2027 $2.1 billion capex program for B-21 acceleration capacity. Dividend payments remain stable and well-covered, with $1,035 million distributed across 9M 2026 ($964 million in 9M 2025). The balance sheet provides substantial financial flexibility, with $3,744 million in cash and cash equivalents against $14,433 million in long-term debt ($16,635 million total debt), yielding a conservative net debt position and an investment-grade debt weight of 17.84%.
Northrop Grumman's underlying return on invested capital has stabilized following contract write-downs in 2023-2025 (such as the $477M B-21 loss provision in 9M 2025). As mature programs scale and early LRIP learning curve costs are absorbed, operating profit growth will counterbalance the expanding invested capital base from the $2.1B 2027 capex ramp, supporting stable economic value creation over our 5- to 10-year forecast horizon.
Operating ROIC of ~18% (and external benchmark 8.57%) generates a healthy economic return above the company's computed WACC of 6.36% and moderate cost of equity of 6.68%.
Record Contract Backlog Guarantees High Revenue Predictability
Backlog expanded 15% during 2026 to reach $109.60 billion as of September 30, 2026, supported by $16.4 billion in Q3 net awards and a book-to-bill of 1.5x.
De-risks multi-year sales forecasts, underpinning full-year 2026 sales guidance of $43.75B-$44.25B and 2027 revenue growth guidance of 5% to 7%.
CapEx is guided to approach $1.0 billion in Q4 2026 and reach approximately $2.1 billion (~4.5% of sales) in 2027, up from $1.45 billion in FY2025.
Absorbs operating cash flow during the peak facility buildout, keeping adjusted free cash flow guided to $3.1B-$3.5B in 2026 and $3.3B-$3.7B in 2027, and restricting share repurchase capacity.
Management raised 2026 segment operating incomeguidance to $4.94B-$5.04B with an operating margin of approximately 11.3%, up from FY2025 operating income of $4.51B on $41.95B sales (10.75% EBIT margin).
Confirms steady margin recovery as contract mix shifts from cost-plus development to fixed-price production, though Q3 Defense Systems margin dipped to 10.8% due to Sentinel cost-type content.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) trades at 17.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.2x compares with a peer median of 12.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lockheed Martin Corporation, Illinois Tool Works Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and Honeywell International Inc., as of 2026-10-21.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Nuclear Triad Recapitalization and Strategic Deterrence Priority
positive
The multi-decade requirement to replace legacy Minuteman III missiles and aging strategic bomber fleets secures sustained funding for Sentinel and B-21 Raider programs, insulating Northrop Grumman from broader discretionary defense cuts.
European Rearmament and Allied Defense Modernization
positive
Accelerating NATO defense outlays across Europe drive heightened export demand for air defense systems, precision-guided munitions, and airborne surveillance radars, expanding Northrop Grumman's international footprint beyond its FY2025 European revenue base of $3,286 million.
Government procurement policies increasingly require prime contractors to absorb development and early production cost risks via fixed-price contracts, increasing intermediate margin risk before rewarding mature manufacturing cadence with higher operating profit.
Positioning
Northrop Grumman occupies an enviable tier-one positioning within the defense prime landscape. While peers such as Lockheed Martin (LMT, forward P/E 16.81x) and Honeywell (HON, forward P/E 21.74x) possess substantial scale or diversified commercial aerospace exposure, Northrop holds uncontested franchise exclusivity across strategic stealth bombers and classified space architectures. With 85.7% of FY2025 sales directed to the U.S. government ($35.96B) and a record $109.6 billion backlog, the company combines sovereign credit safety with multi-year program execution stability.4,5,7
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
Pullback below $574.82
Evaluate initial accumulation
A pullback into this range expands the discount to fair value ($574.82) beyond 13-16%, providing an adequate margin of safety against potential EAC shocks.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
