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Demand remains stronger for longer, margins hold, and earnings compound toward the high forward estimate while cash generation funds continued investment.
Infrastructure demand resets before the expected fade, pushing FY2028 revenue below $416.40 billion while operating margin falls below 50%.
Our fair-value estimate for NVDA is $288.31 per share, with Potential value of $449.00.
NVDA is rated Buy at the report-date price of $217.55 versus our fair value of $288.31, implying +32.53% potential return.3
Our fair value combines these valuation methods: Forward Earnings 35% at $439.07; Discounted Earnings 32% at $199.20; FCFF DCF 32% at $215.06; Peg Adjusted Peer 0% at $145.35; Owner Earnings 0% at $159.91.
FY2028 expectations of $573.64 billion in revenue and $13.13 in diluted EPS support continued compounding if demand persists.1
The expansion can persist if FY2028 revenue approaches the $573.64 billion average expectation and diluted EPS approaches $13.13 while margins remain resilient. These are expectations, not reported demand.1
NVDA is rated Buy at the report-date price of $217.55 versus our fair value of $288.31, implying +32.53% potential return.3
NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing to help solve the most challenging computational problems. NVIDIA is now a data center scale AI infrastructure company reshaping all industries. NVIDIA Corporation specializes in markets where its computing and AI infrastructure platforms can provide tremendous acceleration for applications. These platforms incorporate processors, interconnects, software, algorithms, systems, and services to deliver unique value. Its platforms address four large markets where its expertise is critical: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and Automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics.
The downside mechanism is a demand reset before the expected growth fade, compounded by operating margin below 50% or cash conversion below 0.80. That combination would weaken earnings and premium-multiple support.
Moat rated narrow from 2 evidenced structural sources: intangible assets, efficient scale. Returns on capital are unknown, which sets how much of that structure is currently realised.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell exactly reruns each positively weighted calculated model at its published base assumptions and sums the weighted contributions ($288.31).
The cash-flow model remains positive in the first forecast year. The result is most sensitive to investment needs, margins, discount rates, and the value after the forecast period.
A beat matters only if it raises normalized outer-year cash generation, not just near-term multiple enthusiasm. Keep position sizing tied to valuation after the guidance reset.
An in-line print confirms the base case but does not by itself justify raising exposure. The right move is to keep the thesis on watch and demand either better margin of safety or clearer acceleration.
A private industry valuation cross-checks shows capital spending at 1.2673 times depreciation and 4.41% of revenue; its as-of and retrieval dates are not stated. The cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited: the industry benchmark does not establish NVIDIA-specific capacity, supply, lead times, or customer concentration.
The expansion can persist if FY2028 revenue approaches the $573.64 billion average expectation and diluted EPS approaches $13.13 while margins remain resilient. These are expectations, not reported demand.
A drop below the $416.40 billion FY2028 revenue low estimate would indicate that infrastructure demand normalized earlier than expected; margin below 50% would deepen the reset.
Begin or add to the position in stages while the Buy rating remains supported. Pause new purchases if a documented review checkpoint or thesis-break trigger is breached. Review checkpoints: Revenue expectations — fY2028 estimate below $416.40 billion; Operating margin — below 50%.. Begin or add to the position in stages while the Buy rating remains supported. Pause new purchases if a documented review checkpoint or thesis-break trigger is breached.16
Reassess or exit if the core thesis breaks.
FY2028 expectations of $573.64 billion in revenue and $13.13 in diluted EPS support continued compounding if demand persists.1
FY2026 operating cash flow was $102.72 billion and free cash flow was $96.68 billion, providing self-funded investment capacity.56
The final Buy view is anchored to the reconciled $288.31 fair-value midpoint and +32.5% upside/downside, with the debate centered on whether the moat and growth runway continue to justify the accepted model weights.
NVDA is rated Buy at the report-date price of $217.55 versus our fair value of $288.31, implying +32.53% potential return.3
At $217.55, the stock is measured against the final $288.31 midpoint and +32.53% upside/downside, so new capital should respect the 15% report margin-of-safety discipline.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
The bear case moves toward the lower forecast range described in this dedicated section.
This would indicate that infrastructure demand reset before the expected fade.
Slower demand and weaker economics would pressure both earnings and valuation support.
Lower cash conversion would reduce support from cash-based valuation.6
Net dilution would weaken per-share value and compensation discipline.
That would show investors no longer award the premium assumed by the earnings case.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
A breach would show infrastructure demand resetting before the expected fade, weakening both forecast earnings and support for a premium terminal multiple.
Current:Average expectation of $573.64 billion as of and retrieved 2026-08-30.
Alert ifBelow $416.40 billion within 18 months.
A breach would show earnings growth falling below current market expectations, materially reducing per-share compounding and the case for premium valuation.
Current:Average expectation of $13.13 as of and retrieved 2026-08-30.
Alert ifBelow the $9.65 low estimate within 18 months.
A breach would mean reported earnings are converting into less cash, increasing reliance on accounting profit and weakening support from cash-based valuation.
Current:Operating cash flow divided by net income was 0.8555 for FY2026.
Alert ifBelow 0.80 within 12 months.
A breach would dilute per-share value and challenge the assumption that repurchases can offset stock compensation while the business continues investing heavily.
Current:Shares outstanding were 24.147 billion on 2026-08-30.
Alert ifYear-over-year growth above 2% within 12 months.
A breach would show investors no longer award the premium multiple needed to translate strong forward earnings into the current fair-value case.
Current:25.97 times for the period beginning 2026-08-30.
Alert ifBelow 22 times within 6 months.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at , then adjust for signed per current share.
The bull case moves toward the upper forecast range and tests the report's Potential value.
Base case ties to the fair-value midpoint and assumes the base assumptions continue to hold.
A miss is thesis-relevant when it weakens the moat, margin, or cash-flow assumptions behind the fair-value range. Treat that as a model-reset event rather than a routine volatility event.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Warning level: Below $416.40 billion within 18 months. A breach would show infrastructure demand resetting before the expected fade, weakening both forecast earnings and support for a premium terminal multiple.
Warning level: Below the $9.65 low estimate within 18 months. A breach would show earnings growth falling below current market expectations, materially reducing per-share compounding and the case for premium valuation.1
Warning level: Below 0.80 within 12 months. A breach would mean reported earnings are converting into less cash, increasing reliance on accounting profit and weakening support from cash-based valuation.
Warning level: Year-over-year growth above 2% within 12 months. A breach would dilute per-share value and challenge the assumption that repurchases can offset stock compensation while the business continues investing heavily.
Warning level: Below 22 times within 6 months. A breach would show investors no longer award the premium multiple needed to translate strong forward earnings into the current fair-value case.
| $26.91B |
| $26.97B |
| $60.92B |
| $130.50B |
| $215.94B |
| +68.3% |
| Gross profit | $17.48B | $15.36B | $44.30B | $97.86B | $153.46B | +72.1% |
| Operating income | $10.04B | $4.22B | $32.97B | $81.45B | $130.39B | +89.8% |
| Net income | $9.75B | $4.37B | $29.76B | $72.88B | $120.07B | +87.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.39 | $0.17 | $1.19 | $2.94 | $4.90 | +88.9% |
| EBITDA | $11.35B | $5.99B | $35.58B | $86.14B | $144.55B | +88.9% |
| R&D | $5.27B | $7.34B | $8.68B | $12.91B | $18.50B | +36.9% |
| SG&A | $2.17B | $2.44B | $2.65B | $3.49B | $4.58B | +20.6% |
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Revenue | $96,221,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $24,079,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $72,142,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $8,408,000,000 |
| Operating income | $63,734,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$4,046,000,000 |
| Net income | $59,688,000,000 |
| Total assets | $206,803,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $10,605,000,000 |
| Current assets | $125,605,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $49,510,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $32,163,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $157,293,000,000 |
| Net income | $120,067,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $129,296,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2,843,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $6,386,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $102,718,000,000 |
| Operating outflow | $26,578,000,000 |
| Cash available | $111,307,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $8,589,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $52,228,000,000 |
| Capex | $6,042,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $46,186,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $48,474,000,000 |
| Share repurchases | $40,086,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $974,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $7,414,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $10,605,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$52,228,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$48,474,000,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by operating segment | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute And Networking | $193.5B | 89.6% | 66.5% |
| Graphics | $22.5B | 10.4% | 57% |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by geography | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $149.6B | 69.3% | 93.1% |
| Taiwan | $42.3B | 19.6% | 79.4% |
| China Including Hong Kong | $19.7B | 9.1% | -21.4% |
| Other | $4.3B | 2% | -1.6% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-08-30 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-29 | $6.9B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $176M | $187M | $247M | $739M | $261M | — | -$793M | $291M | — | $1.8B | $6.8B | $2B | 28.0% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2018-01-28 | $9.7B | $3.5B | $3B | $3.5B | $2.9B | $593M | $199M | $391M | $909M | $341M | — | $1.3B | -$2.5B | $1.8B | $4B | $7.1B | $2B | 33.0% | — | 8.3% | — |
| 2019-01-27 | $11.7B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $3.7B | $3.1B | $600M | $262M | $557M | $1.6B | $371M | — | -$4.1B | -$2.9B | $4B | $782M | $7.4B | $2B | 32.5% | — | 10.0% | — |
| 2020-01-26 | $10.9B | $3.4B | $2.8B | $4.8B | $4.3B | $489M | $381M | $844M | $0 | $390M | — | $6.1B | -$792M | $782M | $10.9B | $10.9B | $2B | 26.1% | — | 9.3% | — |
| 2021-01-31 | $16.7B | $5.7B | $4.3B | $5.8B | $4.7B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $0 | $395M | — | -$19.7B | $3.8B | $10.9B | $847M | $11.6B | $7B | 27.2% | — | 6.8% | — |
| 2022-01-30 | $26.9B | $11.4B | $9.8B | $9.1B | $8.1B | $976M | $1.2B | $2B | $0 | $399M | — | -$9.8B | $1.9B | $847M | $2B | $21.2B | $10.9B | 37.3% | — | 7.3% | — |
| 2023-01-29 | $27B | $6B | $4.4B | $5.6B | $3.8B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $2.7B | $10B | $398M | $0 | $7.4B | -$11.6B | $2B | $3.4B | $13.3B | $11B | 15.7% | — | 10.2% | — |
| 2024-01-28 | $60.9B | $35.6B | $29.8B | $28.1B | $27B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $3.5B | $9.5B | $395M | -$1.3B | -$10.6B | -$13.6B | $3.4B | $7.3B | $26B | $9.7B | 54.1% | — | 10.6% | — |
| 2025-01-26 | $130.5B | $86.1B | $72.9B | $64.1B | $60.9B | $3.2B | $1.9B | $4.7B | $33.7B | $834M | -$1.3B | -$20.4B | -$42.4B | $7.3B | $8.6B | $43.2B | $8.5B | 62.4% | — | 11.2% | — |
| 2026-01-25 | $215.9B | $144.6B | $120.1B | $102.7B | $96.7B | $6B | $2.8B | $6.4B | $40.1B | $974M | $0 | -$52.2B | -$48.5B | $8.6B | $10.6B | $62.6B | $8.5B | 60.4% | — | 13.0% | — |
NVDA trades at 26.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.5x; EV/EBITDA of 25.9x against a peer median of 34.5x; 4 peers as of 2026-08-30.
| Trend | Impact | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure investment | positive | Sustained demand could support the FY2028 revenue and earnings expectations. |
| Growth normalization | negative | The valuation already assumes revenue growth decelerates after FY2028, so an earlier fade would pressure value. |
| Industry capital expansion | neutral | Investment supports capacity but can raise competitive supply if demand slows. |
Strong profitability and FY2026 free cash flow of $96.68 billion give NVIDIA capacity to fund the build, but the position depends on demand and margins holding through the fade.5
| Why |
|---|
| Buy stance | Begin or add to the position in stages while the Buy rating remains supported. Pause new purchases if a documented review checkpoint or thesis-break trigger is breached. | Position action follows the final Buy rating and changes only when the rating or investment thesis changes. |
Demand remains stronger for longer, margins hold, and earnings compound toward the high forward estimate while cash generation funds continued investment.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
| Micron Technology Inc. |
| 6.0x |
| 11.7x |
| 15.2x |
| 66.6% |
| 80.4% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 30.1x | 18.4x | 78.6x | 10.2% | 17.2% |
| ADI | Analog Devices Inc. | 22.1x | 12.6x | 26.3x | 12.2% | 39.5% |
