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Bull: Accelerated market share gains from struggling department stores and successful international expansion drive sustained double-digit EPS growth.
Exceptional business quality but current valuation requires immaculate execution.
TJX is a best-in-class, mature compounder in the off-price retail space. Its unmatched buyer network, flexible supply chain, and treasure-hunt shopping experience provide a durable competitive advantage, enabling consistent mid-single-digit top-line growth and strong cash returns to shareholders.
TJX is a best-in-class, mature compounder in the off-price retail space. Its unmatched buyer network, flexible supply chain, and treasure-hunt shopping experience provide a durable competitive advantage, enabling consistent mid-single-digit top-line growth and strong cash returns to shareholders.
Unmatched global buyer network leveraging scale and vendor relationships.
Highly flexible, opportunistic supply chain resistant to traditional retail cycles.
Exceptional business quality but current valuation requires immaculate execution.
Hold. Pristine execution and wide moat are fully reflected in the current $153.36 share price.
The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise. It also offers home decor, furniture, and seasonal home merchandise. The company sells its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Under severe macroeconomic contraction, TJX typically benefits from consumer trade-down. However, if discretionary spending universally collapses while freight and wage costs remain sticky, operating margins could fall into the single digits.
Unmatched global buyer network leveraging scale and vendor relationships.
Highly flexible, opportunistic supply chain resistant to traditional retail cycles.
Differentiated 'treasure-hunt' in-store experience that defends against e-commerce pure-plays.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Unavailable
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $5.3B after capex $1.5B, with terminal value at 68.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/ or materially resets.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Consumers trade down seeking value; department stores shed inventory cheaply.
Extreme economic distress stops discretionary apparel spending entirely.
Capex-light growth funded by strong operating cash flows and high ROE.
Hold. Given the negative upside to the base case, sizing should be neutral or underweight.
Trim positions if shares consistently trade above $175, where perfection is fully priced in.
Exceptional business quality but current valuation requires immaculate execution.
The market is pricing in indefinite margin preservation and multiple expansion.
Hold. The $145.71 fair value midpoint indicates shares are currently priced for perfection, leaving little margin of safety at current levels.
Downside case: Exceptional business quality but current valuation requires immaculate execution.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Saturation limits store footprint expansion while sticky wage and freight inflation compress margins. Prolonged discretionary spending slump prevents value-hunting traffic from offsetting cost pressures.
Digital-first apparel platforms replicate the off-price 'treasure hunt' online, eroding store traffic and threatening TJX's moat.
Persistent wage inflation, freight costs, and supply chain inefficiencies permanently reset operating margins below 10%.
Exhaustion of viable new store locations in North America significantly stalls revenue growth below the 5% target.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Slowing revenue expansion points to foot traffic attrition in key retail banners, indicating that value-conscious consumer engagement is waning and digital platforms are increasingly capturing market share from off-price brick-and-mortar stores.
Current:7.1% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Alert ifSlows below 3.0% over any full fiscal year
Failing to sustain operating profitability indicates that store labor wage increases and supply chain overhead cannot be offset through merchandise pricing, eroding the core margin profile that underpins current cash generation.
Current:11.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Alert ifFalls below 11.0% across two consecutive fiscal quarters
A reduction in gross profitability suggests inventory imbalances that necessitate promotional markdowns and clearance activity, showing that opportunistic buying execution is stumbling and excess merchandise cannot be cleared at standard markups.
Current:31.0% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Alert ifContracts below 28.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
A sharp reduction in capital returns indicates misallocation in inventory sourcing and diminished merchant productivity, validating concerns that leadership and buyer network turnover are damaging operational execution.
Current:24.6% as of 2026-05-09
Alert ifDeclines below 18.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Cash conversion falling below parity indicates that cost absorption pressures and working capital friction are severely pinching operating liquidity, limiting the cash available for share repurchases and store network growth.
Current:1.251 as of 2026-05-09
Alert ifDrops below 1.00 over any trailing twelve-month period
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Accelerated market share gains from struggling department stores and successful international expansion drive sustained double-digit EPS growth. Operating margins expand past 12.5%.
TJX leverages its unmatched buyer network to maintain steady mid-single-digit top-line growth. Operating margins stabilize around 12%, returning strong cash flows to shareholders.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Warning level: Slows below 3.0% over any full fiscal year. Slowing revenue expansion points to foot traffic attrition in key retail banners, indicating that value-conscious consumer engagement is waning and digital platforms are increasingly capturing market share from off-price brick-and-mortar stores.
Warning level: Falls below 11.0% across two consecutive fiscal quarters. Failing to sustain operating profitability indicates that store labor wage increases and supply chain overhead cannot be offset through merchandise pricing, eroding the core margin profile that underpins current cash generation.
Warning level: Contracts below 28.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. A reduction in gross profitability suggests inventory imbalances that necessitate promotional markdowns and clearance activity, showing that opportunistic buying execution is stumbling and excess merchandise cannot be cleared at standard markups.
Warning level: Declines below 18.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. A sharp reduction in capital returns indicates misallocation in inventory sourcing and diminished merchant productivity, validating concerns that leadership and buyer network turnover are damaging operational execution.
Warning level: Drops below 1.00 over any trailing twelve-month period. Cash conversion falling below parity indicates that cost absorption pressures and working capital friction are severely pinching operating liquidity, limiting the cash available for share repurchases and store network growth.
| $48.55B |
| $49.94B |
| $54.22B |
| $56.36B |
| $60.37B |
| +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $13.84B | $13.79B | $16.27B | $17.25B | $18.69B | +7.8% |
| Operating income | $4.52B | $4.72B | $6.05B | $6.56B | $7.37B | +13.0% |
| Net income | $3.28B | $3.50B | $4.47B | $4.86B | $5.49B | +13.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.70 | $2.97 | $3.86 | $4.26 | $4.87 | +15.9% |
| EBITDA | $5.39B | $5.61B | $7.01B | $7.66B | $8.62B | +12.5% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $9.08B | $8.93B | $10.47B | $10.95B | $11.52B | +6.1% |
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Revenue | 60,372,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 41,679,000,000 |
| Gross profit | 18,693,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | 11,515,000,000 |
| Operating income | 7,178,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -1,684,000,000 |
| Net income | 5,494,000,000 |
| Total assets | 35,767,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | 6,230,000,000 |
| Current assets | 15,202,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | 25,577,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | 13,361,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | 10,190,000,000 |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-05-09 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | 48.6B | 5.4B | 3.3B | 3.1B | 2B | 1B | 868M | 189M | 2.2B | 1.3B | -3B | — | — | — | — | 6.2B | 12.5B | 9.8% | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-31 | 49.9B | 5.6B | 3.5B | 4.1B | 2.6B | 1.5B | 887M | 122M | 2.3B | 1.3B | 0 | — | — | — | — | 5.5B | 12.7B | 9.7% | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 54.2B | 7B | 4.5B | 6.1B | 4.3B | 1.7B | 964M | 160M | 2.5B | 1.5B | -500M | — | — | — | — | 5.6B | 12.5B | 10.7% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2025-01-31 | 56.4B | 7.7B | 4.9B | 6.1B | 4.2B | 1.9B | 1.1B | 183M | 2.5B | 1.6B | 0 | — | — | — | — | 5.3B | 12.8B | 11.2% | — | 7.9% | — |
| 2026-01-31 | 60.4B | 8.6B | 5.5B | 6.9B | 4.9B | 2B | 1.2B | 214M | 2.5B | 1.8B | 0 | — | — | — | — | 6.2B | 13.5B | 11.9% | — | 7.2% | — |
TJX trades at 27.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.6x; EV/EBITDA of 21.0x against a peer median of 19.4x; 6 peers.
| Accumulate heavily near the $110-$120 range, providing a wider margin of safety against multiple contraction. |
| Lululemon Athletica Inc. |
| 9.9x |
| 1.4x |
| 5.6x |
| 34.0% |
| 22.3% |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 27.6x | 3.9x | 19.4x | 24.3% | 13.1% |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc. | 169.0x | 16.4x | 142.5x | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| HD | The Home Depot Inc. | 19.5x | 1.9x | 15.2x | 145.5% | 10.1% |
