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Tractor Supply Company's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $17.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 15.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 977.3M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.86 | |
| Shares out | 521M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 17.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 14.4x | |
| Dividend | $0.96 (3.04%) | |
| Volume | 7,507,112 | |
| Beta | 0.51 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-25 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-30 | 2024-12-28 | 2025-12-27 | Trend |
| Revenue | $12.73B | $14.20B | $14.56B | $14.88B | $15.52B | +5.1% |
| Gross profit | $4.48B | $4.97B | $5.23B | $5.40B | $5.65B | +6.0% |
| Operating income | $1.31B | $1.43B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.47B | +2.9% |
| Net income | $997.1M | $1.09B | $1.11B | $1.10B | $1.10B | +2.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.72 | $1.94 | $2.02 | $2.04 | $2.06 | +4.6% |
| EBITDA | $1.58B | $1.78B | $1.87B | $1.91B | $1.96B | +5.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.90B | $3.19B | $3.36B | $3.48B | $3.69B | +6.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
The Base case reflects our modal projection where FY2026 marks the operational trough for Tractor Supply. Comparable store sales stabilize near guided levels in FY2026 before re-accelerating in FY2027 and beyond. Heavy distribution center expenditures peak in FY2026 before tapering toward steady-state levels by FY2030, unlocking substantial free cash flow expansion. This path supports our central Fair value estimate of $34.55 per share.
In the Bull case, rural consumer spending rebounds sharply from the recent soft patch, and comparable store sales return to solid positive growth. Distribution center additions deliver landed-cost efficiencies faster than anticipated, driving operating margins back toward historical peak levels. Combined with steady annual net share count reductions and rapid integration of Allivet and VIP Petcare, free cash flow generation accelerates well above base expectations, driving valuation toward Potential value of $44.45.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $38.0 | $39.3 | $40.9 | $42.7 | $44.7 |
| 7.8% | $35.1 | $36.2 | $37.4 | $38.7 | $40.2 |
| 8.3% | $32.8 | $33.6 | $34.6 | $35.6 | $36.8 |
| 8.8% | $30.8 | $31.5 | $32.2 | $33.1 | $34.0 |
| 9.3% | $29.1 | $29.7 | $30.3 | $31.0 | $31.7 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
The rating each month's published research edition carried. A rating compares the price at analysis with the Fair value; it is not a record of whether the call was right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
