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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
DD — frequently asked questions
Is DuPont de Nemours, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, DD looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 130 versus our fair value of USD 100; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 129. That implies roughly 23.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives DD a fair value of USD 100 and a potential value of USD 129. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for DuPont de Nemours, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy DD now?
Our latest published rating for DD, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell. DuPont de Nemours, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 130 versus fair value of USD 100; potential value is USD 129. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for DD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents DuPont de Nemours, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is DD's rating?
Our latest published rating for DD, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 100, the potential value of USD 129, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 130).
The primary operational opportunity lies in accelerating commercial adoption of high-recovery water purification membranes and medical packaging barrier solutions within Healthcare & Water Technologies ($3,233M in FY2025 sales), combined with 80/20 productivity gains expanding consolidated operating EBIT margins to 15.0% by 2030.
Main risk
Operating EBIT margin falling below 10.5% across Diversified Industrials or consolidated organic revenue growth turning negative.
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) is rated Sell with a fair value estimate of $100.11 per share, representing an implied downside of 22.99% from the market price of $130.00. While operational turnaround and 80/20 restructuring initiatives are progressing, current share prices have fully outrun fundamentals.4
DuPont's operational execution is staging a recovery following a cyclical trough. Second-quarter 2026 results prompted management to raise full-year guidance, projecting consolidated net sales of $7.18B, adjusted EPS of $7.24 (an 18% increase), and operating EBITDA of $1.76B. Working capital management has supported free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings, enabling the launch of a $250M quarterly share repurchase program.5
Standalone DCF discipline highlights the drag imposed by $3,194M in total debt, while pricing realization of $90M is limited to offsetting hydrocarbon inflation on a dollar-neutral basis rather than expanding margins.4,5
At $130.00, DuPont trades at 16.47x forward earnings, a marked premium to cyclical peers such as PPG Industries (12.03x). Even under our optimistic bull-case scenario ($128.56), intrinsic value fails to exceed the current market quote. With risk/reward heavily skewed to the downside (-22.99% implied return), investors are advised to sell shares and reallocate capital toward undervalued opportunities.4
Resilient Secular Growth in Water Purification and Biopharma Packaging
Healthcare & Water Technologies delivers steady mid-single-digit organic growth driven by non-discretionary municipal filtration standards and medical device sterilization specifications.5,8
Organizational restructuring and yield optimization target 150 basis points of structural operating margin expansion from 13.5% in 2026 to 15.0% by 2030.5
Free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings funds an active $250M quarterly share repurchase program while preserving over $1.0B in M&A capacity.
House recommendation
Sell: At $130.00, DuPont shares trade at a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11), fully pricing in operational restructuring while ignoring cyclical industrial risks and balance sheet leverage.4
Company overview
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (NYSE: DD) is a multinational specialty materials company providing essential technology-based materials and solutions across global industries. The company operates two principal reporting segments: Diversified Industrials and Healthcare & Water Technologies.
The Healthcare & Water Technologies segment generated $3,233M in FY2025 revenue (47.2% of sales), offering critical purification solutions including FilmTec reverse osmosis membranes, ultrafiltration, and ion exchange resins, alongside Tyvek protective medical packaging barrier materials.
The Diversified Industrials segment generated $3,616M in FY2025 revenue (52.8% of sales), supplying high-performance aramid fibers (Kevlar, Nomex), electronics materials, and specialized adhesive and safety solutions across automotive, aerospace, defense, and industrial manufacturing markets.
Under a severe cyclical stress test combining persistent European manufacturing stagnation, extended Asian industrial destocking, and unrecovered hydrocarbon inflation, DuPont's operating EBIT margin compresses to 10.5% while organic revenue growth turns negative at -0.36%. In this scenario, free cash flow generation contracts toward maintenance capital expenditure requirements, eliminating capacity for discretionary share repurchases and straining debt coverage on $3,194M in total debt. Intrinsic fair value contracts to $71.51, representing a 45.0% decline from the October 9, 2026 share price of $130.00.
DuPont possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in customer switching costs and proprietary formulation intangibles within its specialty materials portfolio. In Healthcare & Water Technologies, which generated $3,233M in FY2025 revenue, proprietary membrane chemistries (FilmTec) and medical barrier packaging (Tyvek) are deeply embedded in customer production processes. Biopharmaceutical packaging and municipal desalination facilities undergo lengthy validation and regulatory certification cycles, making supplier substitution costly and operationally disruptive. These dynamics support management's guidance of mid-single-digit organic growth for the segment in 2H 2026.
Conversely, the Diversified Industrials segment, representing $3,616M in FY2025 revenue, faces more cyclical end-market exposure across automotive, aerospace, and general industrial accounts. While aramid fibers (Kevlar, Nomex) maintain premium technical positioning, customer switching barriers are lower than in healthcare. Management has focused on the 80/20 operating model to prioritize high-margin product lines and implemented $90M in annual pricing surcharges. However, this pricing is limited to dollar neutrality against hydrocarbon inflation rather than percentage margin expansion.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($100.11). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $566.0M after modeled reinvestment of $188.7M, with terminal value at 75.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Maintain Sell; Verify whether operational margin gains reflect sustainable productivity rather than temporary timing before committing fresh capital.
Trigger: Q3 adjusted EPS and net sales exceed the high end of guidance with operating EBITDA margin outperforming management expectations
Even with an operational beat confirming resilient execution in Healthcare & Water Technologies, valuation at $130.00 trades at a premium over Fair value of $100.11 (implied return of -23.0%), keeping the valuation stance intact.
In-line
Maintain Sell; Maintain disciplined capital preservation and review price/cost spread realization across industrial accounts.
Trigger: Q3 adjusted EPS and net sales deliver within the guided range with operating EBITDA margin in line with management targets
Industry capital expenditure relative to revenue stands at 4.1% and capex relative to depreciation is 1.55x. DuPont's FY2025 capex of $333M against depreciation of $647M represents a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.51x, well below the industry benchmark of 1.55x, confirming disciplined internal capital restraint amidst broader sector capacity discipline. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable in reported data, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Bull cycle
In an industrial expansion phase, accelerated automotive build rates, expanding electronics packaging, and municipal infrastructure investments drive synchronized volume growth across Diversified Industrials ($3,616M base) and Healthcare & Water Technologies ($3,233M base). Operating leverage expands EBITDA margins above 25% while pricing realization exceeds input cost inflation.
§11 Position management
Sizing
Under the committee's Sell rating, no long equity exposure is recommended. DuPont trades at $130.00, representing a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11), with fundamental DCF modeling showing downside risk to $55.53. Capital should be completely preserved and reallocated away from overvalued cyclical exposure into assets offering a positive margin of safety.
Risk
Risk management focuses on capital preservation through disciplined divestment. Given the stock's elevated valuation multiple (16.47x forward P/E), cyclical vulnerability in European and Asian end-markets, and total balance sheet debt of $3,194M, holding shares at $130.00 exposes portfolios to uncompensated downside risk. Investors should reallocate capital toward equities with verifiable margins of safety and clear structural earnings growth.
§12 Investor perspectives
Valuation & Capital Preservation
Avoid
Trading at $130.00, shares carry a 29.86% premium over compositeintrinsic value of $100.11 and exceed even the bull-case ceiling of $128.56. Fundamental DCF valuation drops to $55.53 after accounting for $3,194M in balance sheet debt.4
Cyclical & Industrial Investor
Avoid
Diversified Industrials ($3,616M in FY2025 sales) faces sluggish volume growth and hydrocarbon cost headwinds, while international exposure across EMEA ($1,468M) and APAC ($1,640M) remains vulnerable to manufacturing stagnation.5,8
Quality Growth & Income
Avoid
Although Healthcare & Water Technologies exhibits narrow-moat characteristics with mid-single-digit organic growth, the is modest and share repurchases executed at $130.00 destroy per-share .
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) is rated Sell. While the company's operational execution is stabilizing—with management raising FY2026 adjusted EPSguidance to $7.24 and free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% —the stock's market price of $130.00 sits at a 29.86% premium over our composite intrinsic fair value of $100.11. Even the optimistic bull case ($128.56) falls below current trading levels, leaving investors with negative risk-adjusted expected return.4,5
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
In the downside scenario, protracted industrial weakness across Europe and Asia Pacific depresses demand in Diversified Industrials, while sticky raw material and hydrocarbon inflation outstrips dollar-neutral pricing actions. Operating EBIT margins contract below baseline levels toward cyclical trough territory, and multiple de-rating occurs as balance sheet leverage and negative trailing GAAP earnings prompt market reassessment of business quality.
Ways this thesis can break
Persistent industrial destocking and raw material cost spikes prevent margin recovery, compressing operating EBIT margins across Diversified Industrials.
DuPont Diversified Industrials generated $3,616M in FY2025 revenue and guided to low single-digit growth in Q3. Hydrocarbon inflation created an immediate 50 bps margin headwind while pricing is only dollar-neutral. If operating EBIT margin falls below 10.5%, fair value is shocked downward by 28.4%.5,8
FV impact
-3.7%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Protracted European and Asian industrial recession induces multi-year volume contractions across chemical and industrial end markets.
Asia Pacific and EMEA represent $1,640M and $1,468M of revenue respectively. Full year organic growth guidance was only slightly ahead of 4% and consensus models 4.64% in FY2026. A breach below -0.36% annual revenue growth shocks fair value down by 35.2% over a 24-month horizon.1,5,8
FV impact
-6.4%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Cyclical multiple de-rating as markets reprice DuPont toward lower-tier chemical peers due to balance sheet leverage and accounting distress signals.
DuPont currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 16.47x, compared to peer PPG Industries trading at 12.03x. Total debt sits at $3,194M against FY2025 net income of -$779M. A multiple de-rating below 13.2x forward P/E causes a 20.0% decline in fair value within 12 months.4,7
FV impact
-8.4%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Customer resistance to hydrocarbon and raw material surcharges eroding cash gross profit dollars.
Current:$90M in full-year pricing implementation
Alert if< $50M annual pricing realization
DuPont's structural moat is evaluated as narrow rather than wide because of peer competitive dynamics and capital intensity. Competitors such as Ecolab generate superior operating margins of 18.52%, compared to the broader chemical industry operating margin benchmark of 12.4%. DuPont's normalized ROIC of 4.04% remains below its computed WACC of 8.82%, reflecting legacy goodwill and past restructuring costs. Although moat-protected segments provide defensive cash flow, broader cyclical industrial exposure caps economic profit expansion over the medium term.
DuPont generates economic profits primarily through its specialty membrane, biopharma filtration, and medical packaging franchises, where regulatory standards and customer qualification requirements create switching barriers. In FY2025, Healthcare & Water Technologies generated $3,233M in net sales out of $6,849M total revenue. However, consolidated returns are weighed down by the cyclical Diversified Industrials segment ($3,616M in FY2025 revenue) and legacy asset intensity, resulting in normalized ROIC of 4.04% trailing the estimated WACC of 8.82%. Economic value added is anticipated to turn positive as 80/20 productivity initiatives expand operating EBIT margins toward 15.0% by 2030.2,7,8
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Customer Switching Costs in Regulated Applications — High customer switching costs stem from strict regulatory qualifications in biopharma medical packaging and municipal water purification specifications, supporting $3,233M in FY2025 revenue for Healthcare & Water Technologies and sustaining mid-single-digit organic growth into 2H 2026.Moderate
02Proprietary Formulations and Brand Intangibles — Patented polymer chemistries, aramid fiber technologies, and established brand specifications like Tyvek provide value-based pricing power, enabling $90M in annual pricing realization to achieve dollar neutrality against raw material inflation.Moderate
03Manufacturing Scale and Operational Integration — Global production footprint across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific supports 80/20 operational streamlining initiatives, though geographic dispersion in Europe ($1,468M FY2025 revenue) and APAC ($1,640M FY2025 revenue) exposes fixed-cost absorption to regional volume swings.Narrow
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
In the modal base case, DuPont delivers on guided 2H operational acceleration, achieving $7,166M in FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS of $7.26, followed by FY2027 revenue of $7,451M and EPS of $7.97. Operating EBIT margins expand steadily from 13.5% in 2026 to 15.0% by 2030 through 80/20 productivity gains. Free cash flow conversion remains near 100%, supporting $250M quarterly share repurchases. Intrinsic fair value converges to $100.11, indicating that trading at $130.00 is significantly stretched.1,5
In the upside scenario, rapid realization of 80/20 restructuring efficiencies and sustained mid-single-digit organic growth in Healthcare & Water Technologies expand operating EBIT margins toward 17.0%, while sequential volume exit acceleration (6% in 2H 2026, 7% in Q4) and disciplined buybacks drive FY2027 EPS growth to 12.0%, supporting intrinsic fair value of 128.56.5
In-line delivery matches the house forecast trajectory for FY2026, confirming that share valuation at $130.00 fully prices in operational recovery with no margin of safety.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Accelerate portfolio rebalancing out of cyclical chemical exposure to mitigate further valuation compression.
Trigger: Q3 adjusted EPS or net sales fall below the low end of guidance due to European and Asian industrial weakness or unrecovered hydrocarbon inflation
An earnings miss confirms vulnerability to cyclical headwinds and prompts rapid multiple compression toward peer chemical levels, reinforcing intrinsic downside toward the lower boundary.
Earnings quality is mixed. While adjusted operating EBITDAguidance of $1.76B and adjusted EPS guidance of $7.24 reflect strong operational cash generation, reported GAAP results were heavily distorted in FY2025 by non-cash asset impairments, producing GAAP net income of -$779M and diluted EPS of -$5.58. Free cash flow conversion near 100% of adjusted earnings provides tangible cash-backed validation, but the wide gap between GAAP and non-GAAP figures warrants analytical caution.5,7
Estimate momentum
Consensus estimates have shown positive upward momentum following Q2 earnings results. FY2026 consensus EPS increased by 0.59% to $7.26, while FY2027 consensus EPS edged up 0.16% to $7.97. Top-line expectations for FY2026 and FY2027 have stabilized at $7,166M and $7,451M respectively. Upward revisions reflect confidence in 2H volume acceleration (guided to 6% organic growth), yet the magnitude of estimate upgrades remains modest and insufficient to bridge the 29.86% valuation premium.1,5
DuPont exhibits healthy operating cash flow characteristics despite reported earnings volatility. In FY2025, the company converted $1,412M of operating cash flow into $1,079M of free cash flow after deducting $333M in capital expenditures. Capital intensity remains moderate, with FY2025 capex representing 4.86% of revenue, roughly in line with the industry benchmark of 4.1%. Management's working capital optimization (tight DSO, DPO, and inventory management) has driven free cash flow conversion toward 100% of adjusted net income. The house forecast models 25% NOPAT reinvestment across 2026–2030, generating $566.0M in FY2026 FCFF and expanding to $714.4M by FY2030. However, even with disciplined cash conversion, the present value of cash flows cannot justify the October 9, 2026 share price of $130.00.4,5,6,7
Management pursues a balanced capital allocation strategy combining debt service, shareholder returns, and selective bolt-on M&A. In Q3 2026, the company launched a $250M share repurchase program, supported by strong liquidity, while preserving over $1.0B in cash firepower for strategic acquisitions in water treatment and healthcare solutions. The baseline dividend provides steady cash return, supported by annual diluted share reductions of approximately 0.5%. However, allocating capital to equity repurchases at $130.00—a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11)—is value-dilutive to long-term per-share intrinsic worth compared to accelerated debt reduction against its $3,194M debt load.
Return on invested capital is transitioning out of a cyclical trough. Reported FY2025 performance was depressed by asset impairments and restructuring costs resulting in GAAP net income of -$779M and operating income of $860M. With the implementation of the 80/20 operating model and normalized FY2026 operating EBIT forecast at $967.5M (13.5% margin), forward ROIC is projected to recover toward 8.5%–10.0% by FY2028.
Current normalized ROIC of 4.04% remains below DuPont's computed WACC of 8.82%, reflecting past goodwill and asset write-downs. Under the house forecast schedule, economic profit parity (ROIC matching WACC) is achieved around FY2027–FY2028 as NOPAT reaches $813.6M on stable capital reinvestment.
DuPont generated $1,412M in operating cash flow and $1,079M in free cash flow in FY2025, with management confirming free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings into FY2026.
Robust cash generation funds organic reinvestment and planned $250M quarterly share repurchases, but does not compensate for current equity overvaluation.
Pricing Actions Limited to Inflation Neutrality Rather Than Margin Expansion
Management implemented $90M in annual price increases, which merely offsets hydrocarbon inflation on a dollar-for-dollar basis after a 50 bps EBITDA margin drag in Q3.
Pricing protects nominal gross profit dollars but does not drive structural percentage margin expansion, capping upside in operating leverage.
Balance Sheet Debt Creates Fundamental Valuation Drag in Enterprise Models
Total debt of $3,194M results in net debt of $2,479M, generating a substantial enterprise claim of $18.36 per share in fundamental DCF valuation.
Deducting debt obligations drops standalone DCFfair value to $55.53, anchoring compositeintrinsic value at $100.11 and demonstrating downside vulnerability at current market prices.
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) trades at 16.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.3x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., PPG Industries Inc., The Sherwin-Williams Company and Ecolab Inc., as of 2026-10-11.
Bear cycle
During a cyclical downturn, European and Asian industrial demand stagnates, resulting in customer inventory destocking, extended factory shutdowns, and operating deleverage across Diversified Industrials. Hydrocarbon spikes create unrecoverable cost inflation, compressing gross margins below the industry benchmark of 35.1% and reducing cash conversion.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Global Water Scarcity and Advanced Filtration Standards
positive
Expanding municipal regulations and industrial wastewater reuse requirements drive steady mid-single-digit demand growth for reverse osmosis and ultrafiltration membranes.
Biopharmaceutical Packaging Sterilization and Single-Use Technologies
positive
Stringent global pharmacopeia packaging specifications sustain high-margin volume growth for Tyvek healthcare barrier solutions.
Cyclical De-globalization and European Industrial Deceleration
negative
Sluggish manufacturing activity across Europe and China weighs on export volumes and creates pricing headwinds in base industrial intermediate materials.
Positioning
DuPont is positioned as a late-cycle restructuring beneficiary. Its strategic portfolio realignment has increased exposure to resilient secular end-markets—with Healthcare & Water Technologies generating 47.2% of FY2025 sales. However, with 52.8% of revenue still tied to cyclical Diversified Industrials and international operations accounting for 45.4% of sales ($1,640M in APAC and $1,468M in EMEA), consolidated performance remains highly sensitive to global industrial demand cycles.8
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
$100.00
Initiate initial analytical re-assessment
Convergence with compositefair value midpoint of $100.11 eliminates the current 29.86% overvaluation premium.
$85.00
Consider modest pilot accumulation if operational execution remains on track
Provides an approximate 15% discount to base-case intrinsic fair value, offering an initial margin of safety.
$72.00
Scale into core cyclical position
Approaches severe cyclical downside levels, where multiple de-rating and industrial destocking are fully discounted.
Exit tranches
Level
Action
$135.00
Aggressively liquidate 100% of any remaining tactical positions
$130.00 (Current Level)
Execute complete portfolio exit and reallocate proceeds
Fundamental valuation models synthesize forward earnings ($105.16, 40% weight), multi-stage moat fade ($126.18, 35% weight), and enterprise DCF ($55.53, 25% weight). The heavy debt burden of $3,194M and dollar-neutral pricing limitations anchor fundamental value well below sell-side consensus targets. Investors should liquidate positions and redeploy proceeds into opportunities with compelling valuation upside.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($18.17) plus discounted terminal value ($55.72) minus signed net debt per current share ($18.36) equals the $55.53 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
