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Enterprise AI-native transformation and legacy system modernization.
North American enterprise IT budget freezes and vendor consolidation spreading into European accounts, causing organic constant currency revenue growth to drop below 0.0% YoY.
EPAM Systems Inc. is rated Strong Buy with an intrinsic fair value midpoint of $188.31 per share, offering 54.11% implied upside from the current trading price of $122.19. While cyclical IT budget digestion and client transitions away from task-based services have depressed near-term sentiment, EPAM's rapid expansion into high-value AI-native engineering ($600 million target in FY2026), double-digit European delivery momentum, and pristine net cash balance sheet of $1.15 billion establish a highly compelling, asymmetric risk/reward profile.346
EPAM's recent valuation multiple contraction reflects cyclical hesitation rather than structural impairment. In Q2 2026, the company generated $1,414.8 million in revenue (up 4.5% year-over-year, or 3.4% on an organic constant currency basis) and expanded non-GAAP operating margin to 16.4%. While North American revenue growth slowed due to enterprise client budget scrutiny and a deliberate transition away from legacy task-based testing and front-end work, European operations delivered resilient double-digit revenue growth. Full-year FY2026 guidance projects revenue growth of 3.2% to 4.2% (2.0% to 3.0% organic constant currency) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $13.08 to $13.24, demonstrating solid earnings recovery from FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS of $6.72.46
The company's strategic pivot toward AI-native engineering represents a significant inflection point. AI-native services already contribute 11% of total revenues, and executive leadership affirmed its declared target of reaching $600 million in AI-native revenues in 2026. By utilizing proprietary modernization intellectual property such as MF Lens for legacy mainframe conversions, EPAM captures large-scale, high-margin architecture transformation deals, supporting gross margins above 32% and non-GAAP operating margins of 15.5% to 16.0%, well ahead of the 12.5% industry baseline.4
At $122.19, EPAM trades at 8.29x forward earnings, offering 54.1% implied upside to Fair value of $188.31. Solvency risk is minimal given $1,296.1 million in cash and cash equivalents against total debt of $143.7 million. With free cash flow generation of $612.7 million in FY2025, the shares offer substantial multi-year compounding potential.356
EPAM is deeply embedded into the mission-critical software architectures of Global 2000 enterprises, creating substantial customer switching costs that protect operating margins above 15.5%.4
The company is successfully monetizing generative AI through proprietary tools like MF Lens for mainframe modernization, targeting $600M in AI-native revenues in 2026.4
Trading at 8.29x forward P/E with $1,152.4M in net cash and $612.7M in FY2025 FCF, the valuation heavily discounts a temporary cyclical slowdown.
EPAM Systems Inc. represents an exceptional investment opportunity, rated Strong Buy with 54.11% upside to our intrinsic fair value midpoint of $188.31. The company's premier engineering capabilities, rapid pivot into high-margin AI architecture engagements, and robust net cash balance sheet create an asymmetric margin of safety for long-term investors.
EPAM Systems Inc. (NYSE: EPAM) is a global provider of digital platform engineering, custom software development, and integrated business consulting services, serving Global 2000 enterprises across North America, Europe, and Asia. Founded in 1993, the company operates across diverse industry verticals including Financial Services, Healthcare & Life Sciences, Travel & Hospitality, and Hi-Tech.
The company delivers complex technology solutions utilizing a global delivery model centered in Central and Eastern Europe, India, and Latin America, employing approximately 56,650 delivery professionals as of June 30, 2026. EPAM has exited Russian delivery operations ($16.1 million FY2023 revenue) and repositioned its engineering footprint to support global enterprise transformation and AI-native architecture development.
Under severe stress testing where enterprise IT budget freezes persist across both North America and Europe, organic constant currency revenue growth stalls near 0.0% to 1.0% through FY2027 and non-GAAP operating margin contracts toward 11.5%. Even under these stressed operating conditions, EPAM's balance sheet maintains exceptional resilience. The company ended FY2025 with $1,296.1 million in cash and cash equivalents against total debt of $143.7 million, representing net cash of $1,152.4 million. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $654.9 million and free cash flow reached $612.7 million on capital expenditures of $42.2 million. This asset-light structure and strong net cash position eliminate debt-servicing vulnerability and provide ample capacity to continue share repurchases ($409.0 million executed in the first six months of 2026) while waiting for the enterprise spending cycle to normalize.
EPAM Systems Inc. maintains a Narrow economic moat grounded in deep client architectural integration, high switching costs, and advanced custom software engineering capabilities. Unlike commoditized IT outsourcers focused on low-end IT maintenance and basic staff augmentation, EPAM's delivery teams design, build, and optimize proprietary digital platforms and core transactional infrastructure for Global 2000 enterprises. Substituting EPAM on these mission-critical deployments entails substantial operational disruption, intellectual capital loss, and execution risk, enabling the firm to protect long-standing client relationships across multi-year modernization cycles.
This structural moat is reinforced by EPAM's commercial pivot from task-based work toward AI-native architectures and proprietary legacy transformation tooling. By deploying internal intellectual property such as MF Lens for legacy system modernization and combining domain knowledge with generative AI engineering, EPAM defends wallet share against larger systems integrators. Management affirmed its declared goal of achieving $600 million in AI-native revenues in 2026, with AI-native work already accounting for 11% of total revenues.
Economic profit generation reflects these structural advantages. In FY2025, EPAM generated $520.0 million in operating income and $612.7 million in on of just $42.2 million. of 11.56% exceeds its 10.07% cost of capital, and full-year FY2026 non-GAAP of 15.5% to 16.0% stands well above the broader industry benchmark of 12.5%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($188.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $598.0M after modeled reinvestment of $81.5M, with terminal value at 64.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Quarterly results exceeding the top end of management guidance confirm that North American client spending has stabilized and enterprise deal conversion in AI modernization is accelerating.
The broader IT services industry exhibits low capital intensity, with an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of -2.9% (-0.029) and a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.35. Industry operating margins average 12.5%. However, capital allocation across enterprise clients is currently undergoing a cyclical contraction for traditional task-based IT services, as enterprise budgets are redirected toward infrastructure and AI token consumption. Because industry capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.4
Accelerating enterprise migration toward AI-native architectures, legacy modernization overhauls, renewed discretionary consulting budgets, and expanding billable project volumes across financial services and healthcare.
Enterprise IT budget freezes, postponement of discretionary software transformation initiatives, client redirection of technology capital into hardware tokens and GPU infrastructure, and pricing pressure driven by delivery automation.
High conviction is supported by the Strong Buy committee rating, 54.11% implied upside to the $188.31 fair value midpoint, a fortress balance sheet with $1,152.4 million in net cash, and proven annual free cash flow conversion of $612.7 million.356
Enforce strict portfolio discipline: cap total exposure to EPAM at 6% of portfolio equity, rebalance if position appreciation exceeds 8%, mandate prompt thesis review if quarterly results trigger kill-scenario signals, and monitor net cash preservation ($1,296.1 million cash vs $143.7 million debt).
EPAM possesses deep digital software engineering capabilities and proprietary legacy modernization IP, generating superior cash conversion ($612.7M FCF in FY2025) and high return on invested capital above its 10.07% WACC.25
Trading at 8.29x forward P/E and $122.19, the stock sits at a 35.11% discount to the $188.31 fair value midpoint, pricing in permanent impairment rather than a cyclical transition.
EPAM Systems Inc. is rated Strong Buy with Fair value of $188.31 per share, representing 54.1% implied upside from $122.19.
While cyclical IT spending digestion in North America has temporarily slowed revenue growth, EPAM's rapid scaling into AI-native transformation ($600M target in FY2026), durable European delivery ($2,290.9M revenue), and pristine net cash balance sheet of $1,152.4M create a highly asymmetric investment opportunity.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
A persistent macro slowdown and enterprise IT spending pauses across North America extend into European enterprise accounts. Discretionary consulting projects stall, client budgets migrate predominantly toward infrastructure hardware rather than software development, and offshore talent wage pressures squeeze operating margins toward industry baseline levels, testing early-warning operational thresholds.
Executive leadership acknowledged North America is falling short and enterprise clients are pivoting away from task-based IT services. If North American client budget freezes spread to European accounts ($2.29B FY2025 revenue), organic revenue growth turning negative YoY (triggering below 0.0% YoY) would eliminate the growth premium and compress fair value by 28.5% over a 12-month horizon.47
Current guidance projects Non-GAAP operating margin of 15.5% to 16.0% for FY2026. If offshore talent costs in India and Eastern Europe rise while enterprise clients demand rate concessions during contract renewals, operating margins compressing below the 12.5% industry benchmark would reduce annual NOPAT and fair value by 22.0% over an 18-month horizon.4
EPAM's base valuation assumes a terminal P/E of 14.5x. As automated generative AI coding tools commoditize custom software engineering and reduce billable engineering hours across IT services, terminal multiple compression from 14.5x to 11.6x (a 20% reduction aligning with peer Leidos at 9.9x) would reduce composite fair value by 20.0% over a 24-month horizon.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Indicates North American budget freezes have spilled into European core clients, triggering structural enterprise market share loss.
Current:2.0% to 3.0% (FY2026 guidance)
Alert if< 0.0% YoY
Signals severe delivery wage inflation in offshore hubs and loss of pricing power during contract renegotiations below the industry average.
Current:15.5% to 16.0% (FY2026 guidance)
Alert if< 12.5%
Falsifies the core transformation thesis, demonstrating enterprise budget migration to hardware and tokens without offsetting software consulting engagements.
Current:$600 million target in FY2026
Alert if< $550 million in FY2026
Reflects acute pricing erosion or delivery bench overhang from time-and-materials contract repricing.
Current:> 32.0% (Q3 and Q4 2026 guidance)
Alert if< 30.5%
Indicates acute operational deterioration below FY2025 baseline levels ($6.72), signaling persistent cost absorption issues and inability to realize operating leverage.
Current:$8.22 to $8.38 (FY2026 guidance)
Alert if< $6.72 (FY2025 level)
EPAM generated an estimated return on invested capital of 11.56% compared against a weighted average cost of capital of 10.07%, sustaining positive economic profit through cyclical downturns. With FY2025 operating income of $520.0 million on $5,457.1 million in revenue and minimal capital intensity ($42.2 million capex), the company earns returns comfortably exceeding its cost of capital.26
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Enterprise digital transformation accelerates as clients shift from experimental pilots to multi-million dollar production deployments of AI-native platforms. Revenue growth accelerates toward 11.0% to 13.0%, while operating margins expand toward 17.5% driven by delivery automation and higher-value modernization consulting. This path yields a fair value estimate of $266.26.4
The modal expected path reflects steady execution through the current cyclical digestion. Revenue growth expands from 3.7% in FY2026 to 7.0% to 7.5% over the medium term, with non-GAAP operating margins normalizing from 15.8% in FY2026 toward 12.5% to 13.5% over time. Reinvestment requirements remain modest at 12% to 20% of NOPAT, supporting steady earnings growth and producing our committee fair value midpoint of $188.31.
Execution within guided bands affirms the base case recovery trajectory, demonstrating that European operational momentum and gross margin discipline above 32% offset North American digestion.
Results falling below guided ranges would indicate broader enterprise budget contraction spreading into European operations or deeper pricing concessions during contract renewals, testing kill scenario conditions.
EPAM demonstrates solid underlying earnings quality, evidenced by free cash flow of $612.7 million exceeding GAAP net income of $377.7 million in FY2025. For FY2026, management guidance projects GAAP diluted EPS of $8.22 to $8.38 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $13.08 to $13.24. The non-GAAP reconciliation comprises well-defined items: stock-based compensation ($3.55 per share / $176.8 million in FY2025), amortization of acquired intangibles ($1.34 per share), cost optimization charges ($0.52 per share), and humanitarian support ($0.20 per share). In 1H 2026, operating cash flow was temporarily negative $38.8 million due to late quarter-end client payment timing that cleared in early Q3. Full-year non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 15.5% to 16.0% reflects durable operational profitability.456
Sell-side consensus estimate revisions post-Q2 2026 earnings release are flat across tracked cohorts. FY2026 consensus EPS stands at $13.15 per share (compared to a pre-event level of $13.04) and FY2027 consensus EPS stands at $14.06 per share (compared to a pre-event level of $14.13), with the 0.0% consensus revision representing the immediate post-earnings event window rather than the change from pre-event estimates to current levels. FY2026 consensus revenue stands at $5,658.1 million and FY2027 consensus revenue stands at $5,860.9 million, indicating consensus expectations have stabilized in line with management guidance.
Sustaining margins above the 12.5% industry average confirms delivery efficiency and pricing power.
Reflects offshore cost efficiency in delivery centers like India and resilience against rate pressure.4
| $3.76B |
| $4.82B |
| $4.69B |
| $4.73B |
| $5.46B |
| +9.8% |
| Gross profit | $1.27B | $1.54B | $1.43B | $1.45B | $1.45B | +3.3% |
| Operating income | $542.3M | $573.0M | $501.2M | $544.6M | $520.0M | -1.0% |
| Net income | $481.7M | $419.4M | $417.1M | $454.5M | $377.7M | -5.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.15 | $7.09 | $7.06 | $7.84 | $6.72 | -4.7% |
| EBITDA | $680.3M | $647.3M | $659.9M | $711.5M | $671.7M | -0.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $648.7M | $872.8M | $815.1M | $816.3M | $928.7M | +9.4% |
Cash flow generation is structurally robust. In FY2025, EPAM converted $520.0 million in operating income and $377.7 million in net income into $654.9 million in operating cash flow and $612.7 million in free cash flow, representing a free cash flow conversion rate of 162% of net income. Stock-based compensation of $176.8 million in FY2025 was comfortably covered by cash generation. While cash used in operating activities was $38.8 million in the first half of 2026 due to specific client payment timing at the close of Q2, management affirmed that collections normalized in early Q3. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $789.4 million as of June 30, 2026 ($794.3 million including restricted cash), preserving strong liquid reserves.456
EPAM follows a disciplined, shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy focused on organic capability enhancement and active share repurchases. Due to its asset-light business model, capital expenditures required only $42.2 million in FY2025 (0.8% of revenue). The company pays no regular dividend, channeling surplus cash flow into share buybacks to offset dilution and capture valuation disconnects. During the first six months of 2026, EPAM deployed $409.0 million on share repurchases, including $85.0 million during the second quarter. Full-year 2026 weighted average diluted shares are guided to decline to 52.2 million from 56.23 million in FY2025, driving per-share compounding.
EPAM's digital engineering model requires minimal capital expenditures ($42.2 million in FY2025, or 0.8% of revenue). As operating margins normalize from 9.53% GAAP in FY2025 toward guided non-GAAP levels of 15.5% to 16.0% in FY2026, returns on capital remain solidly above the cost of capital. In our multi-year projection, terminal reinvestment rates rise to 20% of NOPAT, aligning with a 2.0% terminal growth rate to imply a sustainable perpetual return on incremental capital of 10.0%, converging with WACC.
EPAM delivers an estimated return on invested capital of 11.56% compared against a weighted average cost of capital of 10.07%, creating an economic spread of +1.49 percentage points.
EPAM generated $654.9 million in operating cash flow and $612.7 million in free cash flow on net income of $377.7 million in FY2025.
Asset-light digital engineering translates revenue growth directly into distributable owner cash flow, enabling substantial share repurchases without debt financing.
As of December 31, 2025, EPAM held $1,296.1 million in cash and cash equivalents against total debt of $143.7 million, establishing a net cash position of $1,152.4 million.
Minimal debt weighting (debt weight of 2.36%) insulates the company from credit tightening and provides flexibility to invest through market downturns.
FY2026 consensus estimates project diluted EPS of $13.15 on revenue of $5,656.9 million, aligning with guidance of $13.08 to $13.24, up from FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS of $6.72.
The earnings contraction in FY2025 was cyclical and transitory; operational normalization, gross margin discipline above 32%, and share buybacks drive robust EPS expansion.
| Revenue | $5,457,056,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $4,008,346,000 |
| Gross profit | $1,448,710,000 |
| Operating expenses | $928,707,000 |
| Operating income | $520,003,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$142,325,000 |
| Net income | $377,678,000 |
| Total assets | $4,902,136,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $1,296,077,000 |
| Current assets | $2,533,888,000 |
| Total liabilities | $1,224,328,000 |
| Current liabilities | $976,942,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $3,677,808,000 |
| Net income | $377,678,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $679,253,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $124,811,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $176,764,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $654,934,000 |
| Operating outflow | $24,319,000 |
| Cash available | $2,001,624,000 |
| Beginning cash | $1,290,392,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $56,298,000 |
| Investing outflow | $49,047,000 |
| Capex | $42,243,000 |
| Other investing activities | $6,804,000 |
| Financing outflow | $651,200,000 |
| Ending cash | $1,301,377,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$49,047,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$651,200,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-26 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by operating segment | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $3.2B | 58% | 10.5% |
| Europe | $2.3B | 42% | 23.1% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-10-17 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $1.2B | $157.1M | $99.3M | $167.2M | $137.9M | $29.3M | $23.4M | $49.2M | — | $0 | — | -$9.3M | $10.5M | — | $364.7M | $362.4M | $132.2M | 11.5% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $1.5B | $201.5M | $72.8M | $192.8M | $163M | $29.8M | $28.6M | $52.4M | — | $0 | — | -$36.2M | $49.7M | $364.7M | $582.9M | $582.6M | $177.6M | 11.9% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $1.8B | $282.4M | $240.3M | $292.2M | $254.6M | $37.6M | $36.6M | $59.2M | — | — | — | -$112.1M | $23M | $582.9M | $771.7M | $770.6M | $92.9M | 13.3% | — | 6.8% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $2.3B | $404M | $261.1M | $287.5M | $188.1M | $99.3M | $45.3M | $72M | — | $21.5M | — | -$145.4M | $20.4M | $771.7M | $937.7M | $936.6M | $263.5M | 13.2% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $2.7B | $508.6M | $327.2M | $544.4M | $475.6M | $68.8M | $62.9M | $75.2M | — | $6.3M | — | -$167.2M | -$765K | $937.7M | $1.3B | $1.4B | $266.4M | 14.3% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $3.8B | $680.3M | $481.7M | $572.3M | $460.8M | $111.5M | $83.4M | $111.7M | $0 | $15.3M | — | -$368.9M | -$59.6M | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $239.2M | 14.4% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $4.8B | $647.3M | $419.4M | $464.1M | $382.5M | $81.6M | $92.3M | $99.9M | $0 | — | -$13.8M | -$182.9M | -$2M | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $193.2M | 11.9% | — | 9.5% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $4.7B | $659.9M | $417.1M | $562.6M | $534.2M | $28.4M | $91.8M | $147.7M | $164.9M | $3M | -$2.1M | -$66.8M | -$165.8M | $1.7B | $2B | $2.1B | $171.9M | 10.7% | — | 9.5% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $4.7B | $711.5M | $454.5M | $559.2M | $527M | $32.1M | $89.6M | $167.3M | $398M | — | -$1.9M | -$885M | -$390.4M | $2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $163.3M | 11.5% | — | 10.0% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $5.5B | $671.7M | $377.7M | $654.9M | $612.7M | $42.2M | $124.8M | $176.8M | $662.2M | — | -$2.5M | -$49M | -$651.2M | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $143.7M | 9.5% | — | 10.2% | — |
EPAM Systems Inc. (EPAM) trades at 8.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.5x compares with a peer median of 11.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Jack Henry & Associates Inc., Leidos Holdings Inc., Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. and Gartner Inc., as of 2026-10-17.
EPAM is positioned at the premium, high-complexity tier of the digital product engineering spectrum. While exposed to cyclical demand contractions in North America ($3,166.1M FY2025 revenue), EPAM maintains strong European operational momentum ($2,290.9M FY2025 revenue). Its asset-light delivery model ($42.2 million FY2025 capex) and offshore delivery footprint in India, Eastern Europe, and Latin America enable it to preserve non-GAAP operating margins of 15.5% to 16.0% well above the 12.5% industry average.467
| Level | Action | Why |
|---|
| $120.00 - $123.00 (Current trading price around $122.19)3 | Initiate primary tranche of target allocation | Captures deep valuation disconnect with EPAM trading at 8.29x forward P/E and a 54.11% implied upside to the $188.31 fair value midpoint. |
| Pullback accumulation range | Accumulate secondary tranche of target allocation | Capitalizes on short-term macro volatility to acquire shares at or below the discounted sell-side target equivalent of $111.93. |
| Cyclical oversold accumulation range | Complete final tranche of target allocation | Priced near cash-backed liquidation valuation, where net cash of $1,152.4 million represents nearly 20% of total equity capitalization. |
Over $1.15 billion in net cash ($1,296.1M cash vs $143.7M debt) provides immense balance sheet protection and enables accretive share buybacks ($409M in 1H 2026) while earnings recover.36
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($39.91) plus discounted terminal value ($72.95) minus signed net debt per current share (-$22.34) equals the $135 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Use book value per share with normalized ROE, cost of equity, and terminal growth to derive a justified price-to-book value.
| LDOS |
| Leidos Holdings Inc. |
| $15.7B |
| 9.9x |
| 0.9x |
| 9.0x |
| 27.8% |
| 11.7% |
| BR | Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. | $19.8B | 15.1x | 2.6x | 12.8x | 40.9% | 24.6% |
| IT | Gartner Inc. | $13.0B | 12.5x | 2.0x | 10.7x | 113.6% | 22.6% |
