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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FOXA — frequently asked questions
Is Fox Corporation Class A overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, FOXA looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 63.3 versus our fair value of USD 83.8; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 137. That implies roughly 32.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives FOXA a fair value of USD 83.8 and a potential value of USD 137. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Fox Corporation Class A's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FOXA now?
Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy. Fox Corporation Class A looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 63.3 versus fair value of USD 83.8; potential value is USD 137. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FOXA?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Fox Corporation Class A's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FOXA's rating?
Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 83.8, the potential value of USD 137, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 63.3).
Accelerating digital profitability as Tubi maintains >30% top-line growth and eliminates digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026), combined with record midterm political advertising and continued $2.0B annual share repurchases that compound diluted EPS toward consensus highs.
We assign a Buy rating to Fox Corporation Class A, reflecting a 32.3% implied return to our Fair value of USD 83.77 as live sports rights, election-cycle political advertising, and rapid Tubi streaming monetization generate strong free cash flow to fund aggressive share repurchases.
Our Buy rating indicates that Fox Corporation Class A offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for long-term equity investors seeking cash-generative compounding. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation signifies that the company's underlying earnings power and balance sheet capital returns are substantially undervalued relative to the cash flows produced by its core broadcast television, news, and digital streaming franchises.
The stock was priced at USD 63.33 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the shares trade at an implied return of 32.3% to our Fair value of USD 83.77, representing a 24.4% price discount. Under our constructive expansion path, Fox's Potential value reaches USD 137.46, offering substantial multi-year upside should digital streaming profitability and advertising pricing exceed expectations.4
The primary risk to our investment thesis is an acceleration in secular pay-television cord-cutting beyond contractual affiliate price increases. Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in revenue in fiscal 2026 and supports consolidated operating income of $3,345M. If annual subscriber attrition accelerates beyond 8%, affiliate revenue erosion would outpace contractual rate escalators, compressing cable operating margins below 20% and reducing consolidated free cash flow available for share repurchases.4,8
The central driver of equity outperformance is Fox's disciplined, cash-generative operating model anchored by live event sports and unscripted news. The Television segment delivered $9,666M in fiscal 2026 revenue, supported by NFL rights secured through 2029 and anticipated record midterm political advertising. Concurrently, Tubi grew revenue by 35% while net digital investment losses narrowed below $200M. Because capital expenditures require only $502M, the business generated $1,468M in free cash flow, enabling $2,000M in annual share repurchases that retire 3% to 4% of shares outstanding annually and compound per-share intrinsic value toward our USD 83.77 Fair value.5,6,7,8
Locked NFL broadcasting agreements through 2029 and Fox News brand loyalty provide must-have carriage, defending Television ($9,666M in FY2026) and Cable ($7,348M in FY2026) revenues against linear fragmentation.5,8
Capital-Light Model Funding Aggressive Share Repurchases
With modest capex of $502M (2.93% of revenue), Fox converted $1,970M operating cash flow into $1,468M free cash flow, enabling $2,000M in annual share repurchases that retire 3% to 4% of shares annually to compound EPS.6
House recommendation
We rate Fox Corporation Class A a Buy because its dominant live sports and news franchises generate robust, asset-light free cash flow that consistently funds share repurchases to drive double-digit earnings per share compounding.
Company overview
Fox Corporation is a news, sports, and entertainment company operating primarily through two core business segments: Television and Cable Network Programming. In fiscal 2026, the Television segment generated $9,666M in revenue, comprising the FOX broadcast network, 29 owned-and-operated local television stations, and Tubi, a leading free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) platform. Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in revenue, encompassing news and sports cable channels including Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2, and the FOX One direct-to-consumer digital subscription service.
The company serves audiences, multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs), digital platforms, and brand advertisers across the United States. Its revenue model is anchored by contractual affiliate carriage fees paid by traditional and virtual distributors alongside advertising revenue driven by live sports telecasts, marquee unscripted news broadcasts, and digital connected TV ad inventory on Tubi.
Under a combined stress environment where linear cord-cutting accelerates beyond 8% annually, programmatic connected television advertising supply dilutes AVOD CPM pricing, and net leverage from planned corporate transactions reaches 2.8x against total debt of $7,568M in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment, consolidated operating margins compress toward 15-16%. Annual free cash flow would contract, compelling management to scale back annual share repurchases below $1,000M, testing balance sheet flexibility and limiting per-share compounding.
Fox Corporation maintains a Narrow economic moat supported by structural advantages in live sports broadcasting agreements, the indispensable brand franchise of Fox News, and the digital reach platform of Tubi. In broadcast television, Fox holds exclusive telecast agreements for NFL football locked through 2029 with contractual stability confirmed for the next four years before any rights opt-out period. Live event sports consumption, where Fox topped all broadcast networks in fiscal 2026, provides appointment viewing that cannot be replicated by on-demand scripted entertainment, preserving linear mass audience reach and premium advertiser pricing.
The Cable Network Programming segment ($7,348M in FY2026 revenue, 42.91% of consolidated revenue) functions as a high-margin cash generator that anchors consolidated operating income of $3,345M. Fox News commands essential carriage positioning across traditional multichannel video programming distributors and virtual MVPD platforms. Contractual affiliate fee escalation clauses have largely absorbed ongoing mid-single-digit secular subscriber volume declines, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows and peer-leading cable operating margins of 25.21%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($83.77). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.3B after modeled reinvestment of $202.2M, with terminal value at 81.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Upgrade the rating; Evaluate incremental position expansion and monitor whether digital profit inflection provides sustainable operating margin expansion beyond tournament-boosted quarters.
Trigger: Diluted earnings per share and Television segment revenue exceed consensus expectations driven by record midterm political advertising and Tubi revenue growth accelerating above historical pacing.
An earnings beat driven by outsized political advertising capture and faster digital breakeven accelerates free cash flow generation, increases share repurchase pacing, and expands intrinsic value per share toward Potential value.
Industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 0.63 and industry capex-to-revenue is -1.3%, reflecting capital discipline and subdued fixed asset reinvestment across the media broadcasting sector. Fox's own capex of $502M in FY2026 relative to D&A of $410M reinforces this low capital intensity. Capacity and lead-time data are unavailable, so the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Bull cycle
The broadcast and media bull cycle is powered by biennial political advertising surges, marquee live sports viewership records, contractual retransmission and affiliate fee inflation, and rapid AVOD streaming monetization.
Bear cycle
The media broadcast bear cycle is characterized by accelerating linear pay-TV cord-cutting, subscriber resistance to traditional cable bundle pricing, off-cycle political advertising vacuums, and programmatic connected TV inventory dilution that compresses ad CPMs.
§11 Position management
Sizing
3-5%
Supported by stable free cash flow ($1,468M in FY2026), locked sports telecast rights through 2029, and continuous $2,000M share repurchases that provide strong downside support.5,6
Risk
Position risk is managed by capping portfolio weighting at 5%, monitoring quarterly linear cord-cutting trends and affiliate negotiations, and tracking balance sheet net leverage through the completion of planned corporate transactions.
Entry tranches
Level
Action
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Buy
Fox trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.11x and a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77), backed by $1,468M in annual FCF and $4,205M cash.4,6,7
Income and Total Return Investor
Buy
A rising $0.29 semiannual dividend combined with $2,000M in annual share buybacks delivers an exceptional 8%+ total capital return yield.5
Risk-Conscious / Bear Perspective
Hold
Secular cord-cutting could erode Cable Network Programming's $7,348M revenue if subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, while reaching 2.8x could constrain future repurchases.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Buy
Fox Corporation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile, trading at USD 63.33 as of October 5, 2026, a 24.4% discount to our Fair value of USD 83.77 (32.3% implied return). Live sports and news franchises insulate cash generation against linear erosion.4
Strong free cash flow of $1,468M and $4,205M in cash reserves back consistent $2.0B annual share buybacks, driving per-share earnings compounding even in low top-line growth environments.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-05 · Published 2026-10-05 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Bear case, Financial history
Tubi delivered 35% revenue growth in FY2026 while net digital investment losses fell below $200M, establishing an AVOD growth engine that monetizes cord-cutters without multi-billion-dollar SVOD deficit spending.5
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply depresses Tubi monetization and delays digital breakeven.
Higher leverage and debt service costs following transaction execution constrain discretionary capital return and curtail share repurchases.
In the bear case, severe pay-TV subscriber attrition overwhelms contractual pricing escalators, while programmatic ad market dilution and elevated debt service compress operating margins and restrict share buybacks.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe cord-cutting and linear affiliate revolt accelerates subscriber attrition beyond contractual rate increases, collapsing cable programming profitability.
Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in FY2026 and supported $3,345M of consolidated operating income. If subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, margins drop below 20%, triggering operating margin contraction across the firm.4,8
FV impact
-7.3%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Roku transaction leverage spike and rising refinancing spreads elevate cost of capital and constrain buybacks.
Total debt of $7,568M and transaction leverage rising to 2.8x in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment pushes pre-tax cost of debt higher, lifting computed WACC from 7.4102% by over 100 bps.2,4,5
FV impact
-13.4%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Broad CTV advertising saturation and post-election cyclical ad slump depress 5-year top-line growth.
Consolidated revenue was $17,126M in FY2026 and consensus already models -0.14% revenue growth in FY2028 ($17,657M) after the non-recurring World Cup tournament. A persistent CTV programmatic pricing downturn and accelerating cord-cutting reduces revenue growth by 5 percentage points.1,5,7
FV impact
-11.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Rising pre-tax debt financing spreads and transaction leverage reaching 2.8x elevating cost of capital.
Current:7.4102%
Alert if> 8.41%
In digital streaming, Fox has executed a capital-efficient digital transition centered on Tubi (FAST/AVOD) and FOX One, avoiding the multi-billion-dollar direct-to-consumer content deficit spending that has impaired legacy media peers. Tubi achieved 35% revenue growth in FY2026 driven by proactive video-on-demand viewing, while total digital net investment losses contracted from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026. While secular linear pay-TV subscriber cord-cutting prevents a Wide moat rating, locked sports contracts and cash generation justify a 5-year stage II competitive fade duration.
Fox generates durable economic profits, supported by FY2026 operating cash flow of $1,970M and free cash flow of $1,468M on consolidated revenues of $17,126M. Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.41% exceeds the company's moderate cost of equity of 8.2601% and computed WACC of 7.4102% by approximately 700 basis points, reflecting an asset-light operating model with low capital expenditures ($502M in FY2026).2,6,7
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible assets (long-term marquee live sports broadcast rights and Fox News brand franchise) — Fox holds exclusive broadcast telecast rights for NFL football locked through 2029 with no contractual term changes for four years, creating appointment viewing that commands premium upfront advertiser pricing and preserves broad broadcast reach.Wide
02Distribution scale and must-have broadcast reach in live unscripted content — Television generated $9,666M in FY2026 and Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M, supporting must-have retransmission and affiliate fee carriage across traditional MVPDs and virtual MVPDs.Moderate
03Platform breadth and AVOD network reach (Tubi streaming platform engagement) — Tubi delivered 35% revenue growth in FY2026 with expanding on-demand video engagement, while digital investment losses narrowed from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026.Moderate
Linear pay-TV cord-cutting acceleration beyond contractual affiliate rate increases.
high
12-24 months
Must-have live sports and news distribution across virtual MVPD tiers (YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV), contracted affiliate rate inflators, and non-linear reach via Tubi and incremental FOX One subscribers.5
Sports rights fee inflation and renewal bidding competition from tech streaming platforms upon contract expiration.
medium
3-5 years
Contractual NFL telecast rights locked through 2029 with four years of contractual visibility prior to any opt-out discussion.5
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply dampening AVOD monetization.
medium
12-18 months
Focus on high-engagement video-on-demand orientation commanding premium direct advertiser value and declining digital net cash investment losses below $200M.5
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Tubi digital investment losses continue narrowing toward operating breakeven.5
Consistent multi-billion-dollar share repurchases retire several percent of diluted shares annually.5
In the base case, Fox executes as a disciplined mature compounder where contractual sports telecast rights and Fox News must-have distribution generate durable free cash flow. Ongoing share repurchases compound per-share earnings, supporting intrinsic value at $83.77, representing an implied return of 32.3% from $63.33.
Robust free cash flow accelerates share repurchases, compounding diluted earnings per share toward the upper boundary of expectations.
In the bull case, outsized political advertising capture across broadcast stations and accelerating Tubi ad monetization eliminate digital investment drag, expanding consolidated margins and compounding per-share value toward $137.46.
In-line
Maintain Buy; Maintain existing allocation, verifying that share buyback execution continues as planned through pending transaction financing.
Trigger: Diluted earnings per share and consolidated revenue track consensus expectations with scheduled affiliate rate increases offsetting pay-TV cord-cutting and steady share repurchases.
In-line financial execution affirms the mature compounder thesis, verifying that contractual pricing escalation and ongoing share retirements continue to drive per-share value compounding.
Miss
Downgrade the rating; Review exposure, pause incremental capital deployment, and reassess debt leverage thresholds and buyback execution.
Trigger: Diluted earnings per share or Cable Network Programming affiliate revenues contract below consensus as pay-TV subscriber attrition accelerates beyond rate escalators or programmatic ad pricing weakens.
An operational miss stemming from deteriorating cable affiliate fees or digital advertising pricing softness would compress operating margins and constrain capital return capacity.
Consensus earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal years have held steady following fourth-quarter results, balancing cyclical political advertising momentum against linear pay-TV subscriber attrition and comparison hurdles from non-recurring tournament broadcasts.
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends
CurrentContractual affiliate escalators are absorbing volume declines, with must-have live sports and news carriage maintaining carriage tier positioning across distributors.
Why it matters
Measures whether contractual per-subscriber fee increases continue to offset pay-TV cord-cutting attrition, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows that fund capital returns.
02
Metric:
Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection
CurrentDigital losses continue narrowing as advertising scale expands across connected television platforms despite inventory competition.
Why it matters
Reveals whether digital advertising scale can reach self-sustaining operating profitability, eliminating digital drag and expanding consolidated operating margins.
03
Metric:
Midterm election political advertising revenues
CurrentEarly off-cycle indicators and management guidance point to record midterm cycle revenue surpassing prior midterm benchmarks.
Why it matters
Determines whether high-margin biennial political ad spending achieves projected records, providing surplus operating cash flow to support discretionary capital returns.
04
Metric:
Discretionary share repurchase pacing and capital return
CurrentManagement has confirmed buyback continuation through pending strategic transactions while maintaining balance sheet liquidity.
CurrentLeverage is expected to increase following planned strategic transaction closing, requiring monitoring of debt service against operating cash generation.
Why it matters
Dictates balance sheet flexibility and borrowing costs, ensuring debt service does not constrain capital return commitments.
Fox maintains an aggressive, disciplined capital return program, deploying $2,000M into share repurchases in FY2026 alongside $243M in dividend payments and a semiannual dividend increase to $0.29 per share. Share buybacks have reduced diluted shares from 570M in FY2022 to 439M in FY2026. While FY2026 repurchases exceeded annual free cash flow of $1,468M, liquidity is supported by $4,205M in cash reserves, though net leverage is guided to reach 2.8x upon closing the planned Roku transaction against total debt of $7,568M.
Asset-light broadcast operations, disciplined rights renewals, and minimal fixed capital investment allow Fox to generate economic returns substantially above its cost of capital.
ROIC of 14.41% exceeds computed WACC of 7.4102% and moderate cost of equity Ke of 8.2601% by approximately 700 bps, generating durable economic value.
Share repurchases are the primary driver of double-digit EPS expansion.
Fox repurchased $2,000M of stock in FY2026, lowering diluted share count to 439M and compounding diluted EPS from $3.84 in FY2026 toward consensus $5.85 in FY2028.
Per-share earnings growth will consistently outpace revenue growth even in low-single-digit top-line environments.
Narrow digital investment drag is expanding consolidated operating margins.
Digital net investment declined from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026 as Tubi expanded revenue by 35%.
Tubi's inflection toward operating breakeven directly adds to consolidated operating income ($3,345M in FY2026).
Television live sports and political ad windfalls buffer linear cable subscriber erosion.
Television generated $9,666M in FY2026 and management projects record midterm political ad revenues, counterbalancing Cable Network Programming cord-cutting.
Revenue stability allows predictable debt servicing on $7,568M in total debt and ongoing capital return.
Fox Corporation Class A (FOXA) trades at 11.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 16.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Live Nation Entertainment Inc., Fox Corporation Class B, Netflix Inc. and News Corp Class B, as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Secular pay-TV linear cord-cutting
negative
Accelerating subscriber attrition across traditional cable and satellite distributors erodes pay-TV bundle penetration, putting pressure on linear affiliate revenues.
Migration of viewership to ad-supported connected TV (AVOD/FAST)
positive
Audiences are shifting toward ad-supported streaming platforms, enabling Tubi's 35% revenue growth with high user engagement.
Value concentration in live unscripted sports and news programming
positive
Live sports rights (NFL through 2029) and must-have live news command durable appointment viewing, securing premium upfront advertiser pricing and political advertising records.
Positioning
Fox is positioned as a focused live sports and unscripted news broadcaster with an asset-light AVOD streaming wing (Tubi), intentionally avoiding capital-intensive scripted SVOD entertainment production.
Why
$60.00 - $64.00
Initiate core position
Provides attractive entry at a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77) with forward P/E of 11.11x.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($24.11) plus discounted terminal value ($109) minus signed net debt per current share ($5.69) equals the $128 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
