Optional product analytics
With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
The strongest upside path is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS meeting analyst consensus estimates, which would support the near-term recovery case.
Annual HIV product-sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Hold. The $146.64 report-date price was above Fair value of $139.59. HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 consolidated revenue of $29.44 billion, making sustained contraction the main risk. FY2027 revenue estimates and FY2025 free cash flow provide the clearest upside support.13456
The report used the September 8, 2026 price of $146.64, retrieved September 9. Fair value is $139.59, while Potential value is $273.40 and requires stronger outcomes.3
The main risk is sustained HIV contraction. Because HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 sales, consecutive annual declines would weaken consolidated revenue, margins, earnings, and cash.6
The clearest upside path requires FY2027 revenue to remain within the supplied estimate range, free cash flow to remain strong, and non-HIV sales to increase from the smaller cell-therapy base.146
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base, supporting consolidated revenue without relying on physical-capacity expansion.6
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.56
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. sells and distribute most of its products in the U.S. exclusively through the wholesale channel. Historically, approximately 90% of its gross product sales in the U.S. have been to three large wholesalers—Cardinal Health, Inc., Cencora, Inc. and McKesson Corporation—and their specialty distributor affiliates.
Prices for its products are based on local market economics and competition and sometimes differ from country to country. Its sales in countries with relatively higher prices may be reduced if products can be imported and resold into those countries from lower price markets.
The harsh coherent path combines two years of HIV contraction, a normalized consolidated operating margin below 32%, and higher required returns. This margin means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue. Sales, profit, cash, and what investors pay for future earnings would fall together.
Strong cash generation and HIV scale support present earnings, but neither proves switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, or efficient scale. Structural protection beyond the FY2027 estimate period is not established.
FY2025 free cash flow supports economic value, but future excess returns remain conditional on product durability and disciplined reinvestment.4
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($139.59). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.4B after modeled capex of $563.0M, with terminal value at 65.7% of . A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Higher revenue and adjusted earnings would strengthen the FY2027 outlook, but one strong result would not establish lasting growth.
The pharmaceutical benchmark dated 2026-09-01 shows capital spending at 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation, indicating restrained industry investment.
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.
Weak HIV demand would transmit quickly because HIV remains the dominant product group. Geographic diversification may soften a local shock, but US revenue remains the largest disclosed category.
No allocation increase. The report-date price exceeds Fair value. HIV was the dominant FY2025 product group, so concentration and wide valuation outcomes limit support for a larger position.356
Do not use the upper cash-based valuation outcomes as stand-alone sizing support because their reinvestment assumptions overlap.
Cash generation supports ownership, but the report-date price exceeds Fair value and HIV concentration limits growth duration.4
Wait for the FY2027 recovery and recurring margin evidence rather than relying on Potential value.1
FY2025 free cash flow supports distributions, although debt and concentration reduce flexibility during a setback.34
Hold because the report-date price was above Fair value. FY2027 revenue estimates support a near-term recovery, but HIV concentration limits its likely duration.1356
The case can improve if FY2027 analyst consensus revenue and adjusted earnings are met, recurring operating margin stays at or above 32%, and cell therapy contributes more.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
HIV contraction would reduce the largest revenue stream. If normalized consolidated operating margin also fell, recurring companywide operating profit would weaken as a share of revenue. Cash generation would decline, while higher required returns would reduce the value of future cash flows.
Annual HIV sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years would shrink the largest revenue stream, weakening margins, earnings, and distributable cash.
A recurring operating margin below 32% within 24 months would show that adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable profitability and cash generation.
A moderate cost of equity above 9.2834% within 12 months would reduce the present value of distant cash flows and weaken long-duration valuation support.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
HIV is the largest product group, so sustained contraction would reduce consolidated sales before weakening operating leverage, earnings, and cash available for distributions.
Current:FY2025 HIV sales were $20.75 billion.
Alert ifGrowth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Slower FY2027 growth would bring mature growth forward, reducing the sales base that supports future earnings and cash flow.
Current:Analyst consensus estimates FY2027 revenue at $32.68 billion as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Alert ifFY2027 growth below 2.5%.
A breach would show that each dollar of sales produces less recurring operating profit. That would weaken cash generation and indicate that provider-adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable companywide economics.
Current:FY2025 GAAP operating income was $10.02 billion on $29.44 billion of revenue.
Alert ifNormalized consolidated operating margin below 32% within 24 months. This means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue.
Higher required returns would lower what investors pay for future cash flows, with the greatest pressure on valuations that depend more heavily on distant years.
Current:Moderate cost of equity was 7.2834% on 2026-09-09.
Alert ifAbove 9.2834% within 12 months.
A lower FY2027 estimate would reduce expected earnings per share and weaken the case that profitability can recover even if HIV sales remain stable.
Current:FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS is estimated at $9.89 as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Alert ifEstimate below the supplied $9.19 low.
| Threat | Severity | Timeline | Mitigation |
|---|
| HIV product concentration | high | Over the next two fiscal years | Require non-HIV products to offset any sustained HIV decline before extending the assumed growth period.6 |
| Short earnings visibility | medium | Beyond FY2027 | Keep longer-run growth conditional on new product evidence rather than extending the near-term recovery estimates.1 |
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
FY2027 analyst consensus estimates support higher revenue and adjusted earnings. Growth then slows because HIV concentration limits the evidence for a longer expansion.1
Improvement beyond FY2027 requires a larger non-HIV contribution and strong free cash flow. These are scenario conditions, while the cited evidence records FY2025 levels. Lower cell-therapy sales or weaker free cash flow would disconfirm this path.46
Results within the FY2027 analyst consensus ranges would support near-term sales and earnings without proving that growth continues beyond FY2027.
As a scenario inference, a broad miss would weaken the revenue base and leave less operating profit and cash if margins also deteriorate.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded net income, but adjusted FY2027 EPS must remain separate from recurring reported economics.5
Lower recurring profitability would show that adjusted earnings overstate sustainable economics.5
| $27.31B |
| $27.28B |
| $27.12B |
| $28.75B |
| $29.44B |
| +1.9% |
| Gross profit | $20.70B | $21.62B | $27.12B | $22.50B | $23.21B | +2.9% |
| Operating income | $9.92B | $7.33B | $7.61B | $1.66B | $10.02B | +0.3% |
| Net income | $6.23B | $4.59B | $5.67B | $480.0M | $8.51B | +8.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.93 | $3.64 | $4.50 | $0.38 | $6.78 | +8.3% |
| EBITDA | $11.33B | $8.85B | $7.61B | $4.43B | $13.58B | +4.6% |
| R&D | $4.60B | $4.98B | $5.72B | $5.91B | $5.80B | +6.0% |
| SG&A | $5.25B | $5.67B | $6.09B | $6.09B | $5.77B | +2.4% |
The FY2025 filing observations were published 2026-02-24 and retrieved 2026-09-09. Cash flow exceeded reported net income, supporting the quality of that year's earnings.5
Total debt was $26.25 billion on 2026-09-09, while cash was $7.56 billion at FY2025. Because the dates differ, these figures do not provide a matching-date net debt measure.
FY2025 profitability is evident, but the cited observations do not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital path.
WACC was 6.9139% on 2026-09-09, but no supported ROIC comparison is presented.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $10.02 billion and free cash flow was $9.46 billion.
Cash can support distributions and debt reduction while operating performance remains stable.
FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, compared with $10.02 billion of operating cash flow.
Most operating cash remained after capital spending in FY2025.
| Revenue | $29,443,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $6,235,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $23,208,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $13,186,000,000 |
| Operating income | $10,022,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$1,512,000,000 |
| Net income | $8,510,000,000 |
| Total assets | $59,023,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $7,564,000,000 |
| Current assets | $18,342,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $36,405,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $11,813,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $22,618,000,000 |
| Net income | $8,510,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $12,164,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2,760,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $894,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $10,019,000,000 |
| Operating outflow | $2,145,000,000 |
| Cash available | $20,102,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $9,991,000,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $92,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $4,793,000,000 |
| Capex | $563,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $4,230,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $7,745,000,000 |
| Share repurchases | $1,922,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $4,003,000,000 |
| Net debt repayment | $1,788,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $32,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $7,564,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$4,793,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$7,745,000,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by business category | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIVProduct Sales | $20.8B | 70.5% | 5.8% |
| Cell Therapy Products Total Cell Therapy Product Sales | $1.8B | 6.2% | — |
| HIVProducts Genvoya | $1.5B | 5.1% | — |
| Liver Disease Products Vemlidy | $1.1B | 3.6% | 11.6% |
| Veklury | $911M | 3.1% | — |
| Other Products Total Other Product Sales | $799M | 2.7% | -10.1% |
| Royalty Contract And Other | $527M | 1.8% | 266% |
| Other Products Am Bisome | $509M | 1.7% | -4.5% |
| HIVProducts Other HIV | $500M | 1.7% | 15.2% |
| HIVProducts Symtuza Revenue Share | $495M | 1.7% | -16.4% |
| Cell Therapy Products Tecartus | $344M | 1.2% | -14.6% |
| Other Products Other | $290M | 1% | -18.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by geography | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $20.9B | 70.9% | 1.4% |
| Europe | $5.1B | 17.2% | 9.3% |
| Rest Of World | $3.5B | 11.9% | -0.7% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-09 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $30.4B | $19.2B | $13.5B | $17B | $16.3B | $748M | $1.2B | $380M | $11B | $2.5B | — | -$12B | -$9.7B | — | $8.2B | $11.9B | $27.8B | 58.0% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $26.1B | $15.9B | $4.6B | $11.9B | $11.3B | $590M | $1.3B | $638M | $954M | $2.7B | — | -$16.1B | $3.4B | $8.2B | $7.6B | $25.5B | $33.5B | 54.1% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $22.1B | $10.3B | $5.5B | $8.4B | $7.5B | $924M | $1.4B | $845M | $2.9B | $3B | — | $14.4B | -$12.3B | $7.6B | $17.9B | $30.1B | $27.3B | 37.1% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $22.4B | $7.6B | $5.4B | $9.1B | $8.3B | $825M | $1.4B | $636M | $1.7B | $3.2B | — | -$7.8B | -$7.6B | $17.9B | $11.6B | $24.4B | $24.6B | 19.1% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $24.7B | $4.1B | $123M | $8.2B | $7.5B | $650M | $1.5B | $643M | $1.6B | $3.4B | — | -$14.6B | $770M | $11.6B | $6B | $7.4B | $31.4B | 16.5% | — | 2.2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $27.3B | $11.3B | $6.2B | $11.4B | $10.8B | $579M | $2.1B | $635M | $546M | $3.6B | — | -$3.1B | -$8.9B | $6B | $5.3B | $6.5B | $26.7B | 36.3% | — | 2.8% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $27.3B | $8.9B | $4.6B | $9.1B | $8.3B | $728M | $2.1B | $637M | $1.4B | $3.7B | -$1.5B | -$2.5B | -$6.5B | $5.3B | $5.4B | $6.4B | $25.2B | 26.9% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $27.1B | $7.6B | $5.7B | $8B | $7.4B | $585M | $2.7B | $766M | $1B | $3.8B | -$270M | -$2.3B | -$5.1B | $5.4B | $6.1B | $7.3B | $25B | 28.0% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $28.8B | $4.4B | $480M | $10.8B | $10.3B | $523M | $2.8B | $835M | $1.2B | $3.9B | $1.5B | -$3.4B | -$3.4B | $6.1B | $10B | $11.6B | $26.7B | 5.8% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $29.4B | $13.6B | $8.5B | $10B | $9.5B | $563M | $2.8B | $894M | $1.9B | $4B | -$1.8B | -$4.8B | -$7.7B | $10B | $7.6B | $9.6B | $24.9B | 34.0% | — | 6.0% | — |
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) trades at 15.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.9x compares with a peer median of 11.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Sanofi, as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-09.
| Non-US revenue diversification | neutral | FY2025 Europe and Rest of World revenue were meaningful, but US revenue was $20.88 billion of $29.44 billion consolidated revenue. |
Gilead enters this demand-led cycle with substantial cash generation, but product concentration limits protection against an HIV-specific slowdown.46
| FY2027 revenue growth at or above 2.5% and recurring operating margin at or above 32% | Reassess the Hold after both conditions are reported. | These conditions would preserve the recovery bridge and sustainable earnings base. |
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
| AbbVie Inc. |
| 15.3x |
| 6.8x |
| 16.8x |
| 62.2% |
| 40.0% |
| MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | 15.6x | 5.5x | 14.3x | 7.0% | -0.2% |
| SNY | Sanofi | 8.4x | 2.2x | 9.3x | 6.6% | 20.0% |
