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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
GS — frequently asked questions
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, GS looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 936 versus our fair value of USD 628; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 787. That implies roughly 32.9% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives GS a fair value of USD 628 and a potential value of USD 787. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy GS now?
Our latest published rating for GS, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 936 versus fair value of USD 628; potential value is USD 787. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for GS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-08 documents The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is GS's rating?
Our latest published rating for GS, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 628, the potential value of USD 787, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 936).
Bull: Accelerated recovery in M&A and capital markets activity drives outsized near-term earnings, while the Asset & Wealth Management segment achieves sustained high-margin growth, commanding a premium valuation multiple.
Main risk
Sustained Capital Markets Freeze: Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty stalls M&A and underwriting pipelines, structurally dragging investment banking revenues.
Goldman Sachs remains a premier global franchise, successfully pivoting toward durable Asset & Wealth Management fees. However, current market pricing implies an uninterrupted continuation of peak-cycle earnings and permanently expanded multiples.
Goldman Sachs remains a premier global franchise, successfully pivoting toward durable Asset & Wealth Management fees. However, current market pricing implies an uninterrupted continuation of peak-cycle earnings and permanently expanded multiples.
Sell. Market exuberance ignores cyclical normalization and regulatory capital realities.
Company overview
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a financial institution, provides a range of financial services for corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through three segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking & Markets segment provides financial advisory services, including strategic advisory assignments related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense activities, restructurings, and spin-offs; equity and debt underwriting of public offerings and private placements; relationship lending and acquisition financing; secured lending through structured credit and asset-backed lending, such as warehouse, residential and commercial mortgage, corporate, consumer, auto, and student loans; financing through securities purchased under agreements to resell; and commodity financing through structured transactions. This segment also offers client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments; credit and interest rate products; and provision of mortgages, currencies, commodities, and equities related products. Its Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets across various classes, including equity, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, commodities, and asset allocation strategies; and provides customized investment advisory solutions, wealth advisory services, personalized financial planning, and private banking services, as well as invests in corporate equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure assets. The Platform Solutions segment offers credit cards; and transaction banking and other services, such as deposit-taking, payment solutions, and other cash management services for corporate and institutional clients. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
A prolonged capital markets freeze combined with severe macroeconomic contraction drives M&A and underwriting volumes to multi-year lows. Simultaneously, mark-to-market losses on private investments erode book value, forcing a reduction in share repurchases to preserve regulatory capital.
If advisory fees rebound strongly, expect EPS upside and multiple support. If FICC trading normalizes downward, Asset Management fee growth must strictly offset to maintain the earnings baseline.
In-line
Hold
Trigger: In-line results
If advisory fees rebound strongly, expect EPS upside and multiple support. If FICC trading normalizes downward, Asset Management fee growth must strictly offset to maintain the earnings baseline.
Miss
Reassess
Trigger: Downside surprise
If advisory fees rebound strongly, expect EPS upside and multiple support. If FICC trading normalizes downward, Asset Management fee growth must strictly offset to maintain the earnings baseline.
If advisory fees rebound strongly, expect upside and multiple support. If FICC trading normalizes downward, Asset Management fee growth must strictly offset to maintain the earnings baseline.
High volatility, stagnant corporate deal-making, and asset price deflation reducing AUM.
Positioning
Transitioning from capital-intensive consumer lending back to fee-based asset management, prioritizing high-margin capital-light revenue streams.
§11 Position management
Sizing
Underweight or short, given current asymmetric downside risk.
Risk
Take profits or trim long exposure at current levels (~$936), as the price fully reflects peak-cycle assumptions.
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
Current / pullbacks
Target entry near $450-$500 during a severe cyclical market dislocation.
Target entry near $450-$500 during a severe cyclical market dislocation.
§12 Investor perspectives
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
The market is aggressively pricing in sustained, peak-cycle M&A and trading environments. Our deterministic models enforce through-the-cycle prudence, applying a normalized ROE of 13.04% and a 13x terminal PE.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
Sell. With shares trading at $936.48 against our $628.13 fair value, the risk/reward is heavily skewed to the downside, implying 33% downside risk.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
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4 / 10
Extended capital markets freeze.
Elevated regulatory capital requirements.
Terminal PE compresses to 11x.
Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty stifles investment banking pipelines, and legacy efforts to pivot away from consumer platforms result in an extended drag on ROE and multiple compression.
Severe credit impairments and investment portfolio write-downs erode tangible book value, depressing capital efficiency and forcing sudden allocations to absorb loss reserves.
Current:-2.629 as of 2026-05-08
Alert ifMark-to-market asset write-downs on private equity portfolios over a 12-month window
Regulatory capital constraints or supervisory rejection of capital distributions eliminates share repurchases, impairing per-share growth acceleration and compounding downside valuation multiple compression.
Current:$17.18B for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert ifRegulatory mandate forcing suspension or halt of share buybacks over a 12-month window
01
Intangible Assets: Premier global investment banking franchise and brand equity. — Intangible Assets: Premier global investment banking franchise and brand equity.
Moderate
02Switching Costs: Deep institutional relationships in Asset & Wealth Management. — Switching Costs: Deep institutional relationships in Asset & Wealth Management.Moderate
03Network Effect: Liquidity provider in Global Banking & Markets. — Network Effect: Liquidity provider in Global Banking & Markets.Moderate
Accelerated recovery in M&A and capital markets activity drives outsized near-term earnings, while the Asset & Wealth Management segment achieves sustained high-margin growth, commanding a premium valuation multiple.
Goldman manages a steady pivot towards Asset & Wealth Management, with capital markets reverting to trend. Normalized returns dictate a value significantly below current market exuberance.
Warning level: < 0.0% over a 12-month period. Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty and capital market freezes contract advisory backlogs, dragging underwriting volumes and suppressing high-margin investment banking fees across advisory franchises.
Warning level: < 40.54 over four consecutive quarters. Downside normalization in trading revenues without compensating asset management fee expansion destroys earnings baseline support, severely compressing net profitability and return metrics.
Warning level: Mark-to-market asset write-downs on private equity portfolios over a 12-month window. Severe credit impairments and investment portfolio write-downs erode tangible book value, depressing capital efficiency and forcing sudden allocations to absorb loss reserves.
Warning level: < 18.4% over four consecutive quarters. Stricter regulatory capital requirements force higher mandatory equity holdings, permanently capping returns on equity below hurdle rates and depressing institutional equity valuations.
Warning level: Regulatory mandate forcing suspension or halt of share buybacks over a 12-month window. Regulatory capital constraints or supervisory rejection of capital distributions eliminates share repurchases, impairing per-share growth acceleration and compounding downside valuation multiple compression.
