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Bull: Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty keeps gold prices high.
Gold Price Collapse: Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.
Newmont is a premier global gold producer currently enjoying outsized cash flows driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing. The core investment thesis hinges on its ability to sustain its production profile and manage ongoing cost inflation.
Newmont is a premier global gold producer currently enjoying outsized cash flows driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing. The core investment thesis hinges on its ability to sustain its production profile and manage ongoing cost inflation.
Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.
Strong Buy based on significant fair value gap driven by current cash flow generation and reasonable normalization assumptions.
Newmont Corporation operates as a gold producer. It also explores for copper, silver, lead, zinc, and other metals. It has operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flow could turn negative if capital expenditures remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.
Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Unavailable
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $6.7B after capex $2.7B, with terminal value at 67.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/ or materially resets.
If margins hold above 35%, intrinsic value converges to the bull case. If AISC spikes and margins compress below 25%, expect valuation to drift towards the bear scenario.
If margins hold above 35%, intrinsic value converges to the bull case. If AISC spikes and margins compress below 25%, expect valuation to drift towards the bear scenario.
Heavy reinvestment phase required to offset depleting reserves, leading to high capital intensity and pressure on free cash flow generation.
Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.
Mean reversion of gold prices as inflation cools and real yields rise, squeezing margins across the industry.
Heavy reinvestment phase required to offset depleting reserves, leading to high capital intensity and pressure on free cash flow generation.
Standard cyclical allocation. Given the high volatility and cyclical peak nature, avoid outsized weighting despite the strong valuation upside.
Trim exposure if spot gold prices break structural technical supports or if AISC margin compression accelerates unexpectedly.
Strong Buy. Despite market skepticism pricing in a terminal decline, the sheer volume of current free cash flow provides a substantial buffer.
The composite midpoint is roughly 25% higher than internal valuation cross-checks. Robust cash flows heavily lift intrinsic DCF models. Forward Earnings weighting correctly bridges this divergence.
Strong Buy. Despite market skepticism pricing in a terminal decline, the sheer volume of current free cash flow provides a substantial buffer.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
A rapid reversion in gold prices coupled with sticky operational costs severely compresses margins. High sustaining capital requirements put heavy pressure on free cash flow, driving valuation toward the floor.
Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.
Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.
Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Lower realized commodity pricing directly compresses mining cash flows, eliminating peak windfall profits and reducing the funds available for shareholder distributions and capital reinvestment projects.
Current:53.2% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert ifDeclines below 35.0% over two consecutive quarters
Uncontrolled cost inflation across labor, energy, and consumables would narrow operational spreads, turning free cash flow negative during periods of moderate commodity price softening.
Current:48.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert ifCompresses below 25.0% over two consecutive quarters
Production shortfalls and operational bottlenecks would diminish unit throughput, elevating fixed cost per ounce and curtailing top-line cash generation across global mining operations.
Current:21.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert ifContracts by more than -5.0% over any fiscal year
Inflated sustaining capital outlays to counter declining ore grades dilute capital efficiency, depressing returns below the corporate hurdle rate and constraining discretionary capital allocation.
Current:23.2% as of the report's 2026-05-10 analysis date
Alert ifFalls below 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Host nation expropriation or punitive royalty escalations would instantly strip production volume and force massive non-cash write-downs, permanently impairing the intrinsic value of sovereign asset holdings.
Current:$7.08B for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert ifDeclines below $3.5B over any trailing twelve-month period
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty keeps gold prices high. Management successfully controls inflation impacts on AISC, allowing sustained outsized free cash flow generation and accretive capital allocation.
Commodity prices and margins undergo a measured mean reversion. The company continues to generate solid cash flows, though below current peak levels, bridging the gap between trailing performance and forward internal valuation cross-checks.
If margins hold above 35%, intrinsic value converges to the bull case. If AISC spikes and margins compress below 25%, expect valuation to drift towards the bear scenario.
If margins hold above 35%, intrinsic value converges to the bull case. If AISC spikes and margins compress below 25%, expect valuation to drift towards the bear scenario.
Warning level: Declines below 35.0% over two consecutive quarters. Lower realized commodity pricing directly compresses mining cash flows, eliminating peak windfall profits and reducing the funds available for shareholder distributions and capital reinvestment projects.
Warning level: Compresses below 25.0% over two consecutive quarters. Uncontrolled cost inflation across labor, energy, and consumables would narrow operational spreads, turning free cash flow negative during periods of moderate commodity price softening.
Warning level: Contracts by more than -5.0% over any fiscal year. Production shortfalls and operational bottlenecks would diminish unit throughput, elevating fixed cost per ounce and curtailing top-line cash generation across global mining operations.
Warning level: Falls below 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Inflated sustaining capital outlays to counter declining ore grades dilute capital efficiency, depressing returns below the corporate hurdle rate and constraining discretionary capital allocation.
Warning level: Declines below $3.5B over any trailing twelve-month period. Host nation expropriation or punitive royalty escalations would instantly strip production volume and force massive non-cash write-downs, permanently impairing the intrinsic value of sovereign asset holdings.
| $11.81B |
| $18.68B |
| $22.67B |
| +23.9% |
| Gross profit | $3.26B | $3.01B | $7.14B | $12.06B | +54.6% |
| Operating income | $176.0M | $-1.79B | $4.95B | $11.57B | +303.6% |
| Net income | $-429.0M | $-2.49B | $3.35B | $7.09B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.54 | $-2.94 | $2.92 | $6.39 | — |
| EBITDA | $2.36B | $320.0M | $7.53B | $14.09B | +81.4% |
| R&D | $229.0M | $200.0M | $197.0M | $166.0M | -10.2% |
| SG&A | $276.0M | $299.0M | $442.0M | $382.0M | +11.4% |
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Revenue | 22,669,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 10,606,000,000 |
| Gross profit | 12,063,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | 1,040,000,000 |
| Operating income | 11,023,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -3,938,000,000 |
| Net income | 7,085,000,000 |
| Total assets | 57,121,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | 7,647,000,000 |
| Current assets | 13,066,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | 23,079,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | 5,712,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | 33,867,000,000 |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-05-10 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | 11.9B | 2.4B | -429M | 3.2B | 1.1B | 2.1B | 2.2B | 73M | 0 | 1.7B | -155M | — | — | — | — | 2.9B | 6.1B | 13.5% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 11.8B | 320M | -2.5B | 2.8B | 97M | 2.7B | 2.1B | 80M | 0 | 1.4B | -67M | — | — | — | — | 3B | 9.4B | 6.0% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 18.7B | 7.5B | 3.3B | 6.4B | 3B | 3.4B | 2.6B | 89M | 1.2B | 1.1B | -471M | — | — | — | — | 3.6B | 9B | 31.6% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 22.7B | 14.1B | 7.1B | 10.3B | 7.3B | 3B | 2.5B | 99M | 2.3B | 1.1B | -3.5B | — | — | — | — | 7.6B | 5.6B | 48.6% | — | 6.6% | — |
NEM trades at 10.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.9x; EV/EBITDA of 7.4x against a peer median of 19.9x; 6 peers.
| Accumulate on pullbacks below $130, providing a margin of safety against commodity price mean reversion. |
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. |
| 16.6x |
| 3.4x |
| 11.3x |
| 15.6% |
| 23.1% |
| SHW | The Sherwin-Williams Company | 23.9x | 3.3x | 20.2x | 60.7% | 14.2% |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc. | 26.4x | 4.3x | 19.9x | 22.4% | 16.9% |
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