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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
ON — frequently asked questions
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-22, ON looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 76.9 versus our fair value of USD 46.4; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 62.7. That implies roughly 39.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, gives ON a fair value of USD 46.4 and a potential value of USD 62.7. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for ON Semiconductor Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy ON now?
Our latest published rating for ON, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Sell. ON Semiconductor Corporation looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 76.9 versus fair value of USD 46.4; potential value is USD 62.7. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for ON?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-22 documents ON Semiconductor Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is ON's rating?
Our latest published rating for ON, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 46.4, the potential value of USD 62.7, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 76.9).
Accelerated penetration of AI data center server rack power trees (where revenue is guided to more than double in 2026 via NVIDIA MGX integration) and high-efficiency 800V automotive traction inverters, which together with 25 to 30 bps gross margin gain per point of fab utilization could lift earnings toward the bull case.
Main risk
Chinese domestic silicon carbide substrate and wafer capacity expansion accelerates, driving substrate prices down and pushing non-GAAP gross margins below management guidance ranges.
ON Semiconductor Corporation carries a Sell rating with an intrinsic Fair value of $46.40 per share and Potential value of $62.74, representing -39.7% implied return from $76.94.
ON Semiconductor is executing a demonstrable operational recovery following a cyclical destocking trough in FY2025, when GAAP operating income fell to $84.2M on $5,995.4M revenue. In Q2 2026, revenue expanded 9% YoY to $1,603.5M, non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%, and free cash flow quadrupled to $425.4M. AI data center revenue is guided to more than double in 2026, backed by expanding design wins across the NVIDIA MGX ecosystem.5,7
Despite operational progress, the market at $76.94 trades at a 65.82% premium over our intrinsic Fair value of $46.40. Intrinsic valuation synthesizes four models: forward earnings ($60.79 midpoint, 35% weight) and discounted earnings ($53.99 midpoint, 30% weight) as primary anchors, balanced by unlevered DCF ($28.73 midpoint, 20% weight) and owner earnings ($21.23 midpoint, 15% weight). The equity market discounts an aggressive multi-year ramp that ignores competitive and financial risks.3
Significant structural vulnerabilities persist on the balance sheet and in distribution channels. Total debt stands at $4,709.0M, with $802.1M shifting into current liabilities facing refinancing costs near 14.48%. Furthermore, a single distributor customer accounts for 11% of corporate revenue, and Chinese domestic silicon carbide oversupply threatens medium-term pricing.2,3,8
Proprietary Packaging and Silicon Carbide System Integration
Vertical integration from silicon carbide crystal growth and 200mm substrate processing to custom multi-phase module packaging generated $2,805.1M in PSG revenue in FY2025, expanding content across the full NVIDIA MGX power architecture.5,8
Automotive and Industrial Platform Switching Costs
Automotive functional safety qualifications lock in Tier-1 design wins across 800V EV traction inverters and zonal architectures (such as the Rivian R2 platform), where replacing incumbent power modules requires 18 to 24 months of requalification testing.
Cycle upside
A cyclical upcycle driven by accelerated 800V EV platform rollouts, doubling AI data center rack power infrastructure deployments, and expanding content per rack, driving factory utilization gains that deliver 25 to 30 bps of gross margin improvement per percentage point.5
House recommendation
The Investment Committee assigns a Sell rating to ON Semiconductor Corporation. Although the company's Fab-Liter transition and AI data center growth are delivering operational progress, the prevailing market price of $76.94 trades 65.82% above our intrinsic Fair value of $46.40. Investors should avoid long positions and harvest liquidity.3
Company overview
ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) is a global supplier of intelligent power and sensing solutions headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. The company organizes its business into three reportable segments: Power Solutions Group (PSG), Analog and Mixed-Signal Group (AMG), and Intelligent Sensing Group (ISG). In FY2025, PSG generated $2,805.1M (46.8% of consolidated revenue), AMG produced $2,261.9M (37.7%), and ISG generated $928.4M (15.5%) out of $5,995.4M total top-line revenue.
The company serves automotive, industrial, and AI data center infrastructure markets, focusing on silicon carbide (EliteSiC), gallium nitride (GaNEXUS), silicon MOSFETs, and analog power ICs. Geographically, Hong Kong / China represented $1,634.8M of FY2025 revenue, followed by the United Kingdom ($1,347.0M), Singapore ($1,252.4M), and the United States ($1,230.6M).
A severe stress test evaluates the convergence of a 300 bps gross margin shock from Chinese silicon carbide substrate oversupply, negative annual top-line growth across automotive divisions, and a debt refinancing penalty on the $802.1M current liabilities at 14.48% pre-tax borrowing cost. Under these stressed parameters, the Fab-Liter operating leverage functions in reverse: unabsorbed fixed factory overhead drives gross margins toward the FY2025 trough level of 33.1%, while annual free cash flow compresses from $1,418.6M below $600M. Discounted at strict Ke of 13.29%, intrinsic equity value retreats toward the lower boundary of $22.97.
ON Semiconductor Corporation holds a Narrow economic moat derived from high customer switching costs and proprietary silicon carbide (EliteSiC) packaging integration across automotive and industrial power platforms. In FY2025, the Power Solutions Group generated $2,805.1M in revenue, representing 46.8% of consolidated top-line sales and anchoring leading positions in electric vehicle traction inverters and hyperscale AI data center power delivery.
Switching costs are entrenched by multi-year automotive qualification cycles. Tier-1 automotive OEMs and cloud infrastructure providers integrate ON's power modules and Treo platform into functional safety architectures (e.g., Rivian R2 zonal power distribution). Re-engineering high-voltage powertrain systems to accommodate alternative suppliers requires substantial non-recurring engineering expense and rigorous requalification, providing durable design lock-in across multi-year vehicle lifecycles.
The economic moat is bounded to Narrow rather than Wide due to structural commoditization risks across standard analog products and aggressive supply additions in silicon carbide. Analog and Mixed-Signal Group products ($2,261.9M FY2025 revenue) face intense merchant competition, while rapid state-subsidized expansion of Chinese domestic SiC wafer and substrate capacity threatens merchant module pricing.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($46.40). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $773.9M after modeled reinvestment of $258.0M, with terminal value at 68.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
An operational beat confirms rapid fab utilization recovery and AI data center demand, but with the stock trading at $76.94 versus intrinsic Fair value of $46.40, equity valuation already prices in upside execution.
Capex-to-revenue was 2.1% in Q2 2026 ($34.3M on $1,603.5M revenue) and 5.7% in FY2025 ($341.2M on $5,995.4M), below the industry benchmark capex/revenue of 4.4%. Industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 1.27x, while lead times have stretched from 27 weeks to approximately 32 weeks.5,7
Bull cycle
A cyclical upcycle driven by accelerated 800V EV platform rollouts, doubling AI data center rack power infrastructure deployments, and expanding content per rack, driving factory utilization gains that deliver 25 to 30 bps of gross margin improvement per percentage point.
Bear cycle
A downcycle characterized by extended automotive OEM inventory digestion, softening EV demand, and aggressive Chinese domestic SiC wafer expansion that causes module pricing deflation and idle fab capacity charges.
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
The rating is Sell. With shares trading at $76.94 against our intrinsic Fair value of $46.40 (representing -39.7% return), capital should not be allocated to long positions.
Risk
Risk management focuses on avoiding capital impairment from multiple compression. ON's raw regression beta of 1.939 and adjusted beta of 1.7214 highlight elevated cyclical sensitivity. Maintaining zero long exposure eliminates vulnerability to cyclical pullbacks.
Entry tranches
Level
§12 Investor perspectives
Tactical / Short-Term Investors
Avoid
At $76.94, share prices sit above the upper bound of our fair value distribution ($62.74), leaving positions vulnerable to sharp multiple compression.3
Long-Term Compounder / Fundamental Investors
Avoid
The base Fair value of $46.40 implies a -39.69% return, failing to provide the 12.38% cost of equity hurdle rate.2
Legacy Institutional Holders
Avoid
Institutional portfolios should use current market strength to de-risk holdings ahead of potential Chinese SiC price competition and debt refinancing friction.3
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
ON Semiconductor Corporation is assigned a Sell rating. Although management's Fab-Liter strategy and AI data center expansion are delivering operational improvements, current equity pricing reflects aggressive multi-year execution with zero margin of safety.3
Investors should exit existing long equity positions and reallocate capital to securities offering positive risk-adjusted returns.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
In the Bear case (25% probability), Chinese domestic silicon carbide oversupply triggers module price erosion, depressing gross margins toward 38%. Prolonged automotive destocking halts top-line growth, while $802.1M of maturing debt faces high refinancing yields at 14.48%, compressing equity value toward the $22.97 lower boundary.
Ways this thesis can break
Chinese SiC Price War and Capacity Oversupply
Rapid expansion of Chinese domestic silicon carbide substrate and wafer capacity creates systemic oversupply, depressing EliteSiC pricing and driving gross margins below the guided Q3 2026 non-GAAP range of 40.0% to 42.0% toward the FY2025 trough gross margin of 33.1%.5
FV impact
-1.6%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Automotive EV Platform Destocking Double-Dip
Tier-1 automotive OEMs extend inventory digestion and slow EV platform rollouts, causing Power Solutions Group ($2,805.1M in FY2025) and Analog & Mixed-Signal Group ($2,261.9M) to contract year-over-year instead of rebounding by 9.45% in FY2026 and 13.13% in FY2027.1,8
FV impact
-5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Debt Refinancing Burden and Exit Multiple De-rating
Total debt of $4,709.0M and $802.1M of debt shifting into current liabilities necessitate refinancing at higher coupon rates (pre-tax cost of debt 14.48%), while terminal multiple de-rates by 20% from 16.5x toward lower-growth peers like CTSH at 10.76x.2,3,4
FV impact
-9.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Cost of Capital Re-leveraging and Cyclical Beta Surge
Raw regression beta of 1.939 and provider beta of 2.052 reflect severe earnings volatility, driving the required discount rate 200 bps above moderate Ke (12.38%) toward strict Ke of 13.29% and the published WACC median of 18.54%.2
FV impact
-11.8%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Negative annual revenue growth indicates extended automotive customer inventory digestion across Power Solutions ($2,805.1M in FY2025) and Analog Mixed-Signal ($2,261.9M).
Failure to retire the $802.1M in maturing obligations from cash balances ($3,514.5M) forces debt refinancing near pre-tax borrowing costs of 14.48%, compressing cash flow.
Power Solutions Group top-line share contracting below 40.0% signals loss of high-voltage automotive design share, triggering margin normalization downgrade and terminal growth reduction.
Current:46.8% of consolidated revenue in FY2025 ($2,805.1M)
Economic profit generation remains cyclical. In FY2025, GAAP operating profit fell to $84.2M, failing to generate economic profit above the company's cost of capital (WACC of 12.39%). While Fab-Liter operational leverage is designed to expand operating margins and restore returns on capital above the cost of capital, the October 21, 2026 share price of $76.94 already discounts this normalized profitability.2,3,7
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Proprietary Packaging and Silicon Carbide System Integration — Vertical integration from silicon carbide crystal growth and 200mm substrate processing to custom multi-phase module packaging generated $2,805.1M in PSG revenue in FY2025, expanding content across the full NVIDIA MGX power architecture.Moderate
02Automotive and Industrial Platform Switching Costs — Automotive functional safety qualifications lock in Tier-1 design wins across 800V EV traction inverters and zonal architectures (such as the Rivian R2 platform), where replacing incumbent power modules requires 18 to 24 months of requalification testing.Moderate
Chinese Domestic Silicon Carbide Wafer and Substrate Capacity Oversupply
high
12 to 24 months
Differentiating via advanced planar-to-trench cell architectures, accelerating 200mm fab conversions, and introducing GaNEXUS gallium nitride portfolios spanning 40V to 650V applications.
Manufacturing Bottlenecks and Non-Fungible Supply Lane Constraints
medium
6 to 12 months
Qualifying high-demand power products across multiple internal fabrication facilities to improve fungibility and shorten customer lead times from current 32-week averages.5
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Factory utilization gains yield 25 to 30 bps of gross margin improvement per percentage point.5
Consolidated revenue growth accelerates above 13% in FY2027.1
In the Bull case (20% probability), AI data center power solutions more than double in 2026, automotive 800V silicon carbide market share gains accelerate in China (growing 60% to 70% YoY), and factory utilization increases gross margins past 43%, lifting valuation toward our upper boundary of $62.74.5
In the Base case (55% probability), ON executes steady post-trough recovery under its Fab-Liter strategy. Revenue rebounds by 9.45% in FY2026 to $6,562.0M and 13.13% in FY2027 to $7,423.6M, while operating margin normalizes from 18.5% in FY2026 toward 24.5% by FY2030, yielding our composite intrinsic Fair value of $46.40.1
In-line results validate steady post-trough recovery but leave shares exposed to valuation compression given the 65.82% market premium over intrinsic Fair value of $46.40.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Execute immediate liquidation of remaining exposure without awaiting secondary rebounds, watching for refinancing pressure on current debt obligations.
An operational miss would indicate prolonged automotive inventory destocking or aggressive SiC price erosion, triggering sharp multiple compression toward intrinsic value.
Earnings quality is supported by cash flow outperformance, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of $425.4M substantially exceeding GAAP net income of $226.8M. Non-GAAP adjustments totaled $67.0M in Q2 2026, comprising $41.2M in restructuring and impairments, $13.4M in inventory restructuring, and $11.7M in intangible amortization. Share-based compensation expense remained controlled at $37.4M in Q2 2026 and $144.3M in FY2025.7
Estimate momentum
Consensus revisions post-Q2 2026 earnings demonstrate upward momentum. Full-year FY2026 consensus EPS estimates rose from $3.12 to $3.22 (currently $3.21), while FY2027 consensus EPS estimates moved from $4.34 to $4.56 (currently $4.54). Consensus FY2026 revenue stands at $6,561.8M.1
Current39.3% non-GAAP in Q2 2026; guided to 40.0%-42.0% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters
Measures Fab-Liter operating leverage execution, where each 1 percentage point increase in factory utilization delivers 25 to 30 bps of gross margin gain.5
Cash flow generation has rebounded sharply from the FY2025 trough. Operating cash flow reached $459.7M in Q2 2026, compared to $1,759.8M for the entirety of FY2025. Free cash flow margin expanded to approximately 27% in Q2 2026 ($425.4M FCF on $1,603.5M revenue), driven by disciplined working capital management (strategic inventory down 8 days) and tight capex controls under Fab-Liter.5,7
Capital allocation prioritizes share repurchases and balance sheet liquidity. In Q2 2026, ON repurchased $332M of common stock, bringing year-to-date capital returns to ~105% of free cash flow. The company pays no ordinary dividend. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $3,514.5M, providing ample liquidity to address the $802.1M maturing debt obligation without mandatory refinancing.
Return on invested capital collapsed in FY2025 as GAAP operating profit fell to $84.2M (1.4% EBIT margin) due to cyclical destocking charges. The trajectory is now improving, with Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin reaching 20.8% and forecast EBIT projected at $1,214.0M in FY2026 (18.5% margin) and $1,558.9M in FY2027 (21.0% margin).
In FY2025, ROIC fell well below WACC (12.39%). With normalized operating profits, ROIC is projected to expand above WACC, but this recovery is already priced into the equity at $76.94.
Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%, while CFO Trent confirmed that every 1 percentage point increase in factory utilization yields 25 to 30 bps of gross margin improvement, supporting Q3 guidance of 40.0% to 42.0%.
Revenue reacceleration translates rapidly into operating income growth, supporting consensus FY2026 EPS of $3.21.
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) trades at 16.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 25.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.7x compares with a peer median of 22.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation, VeriSign Inc. and Marvell Technology Inc., as of 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
AI Data Center Gigawatt Buildout and Power Tree Expansion
positive
Hyperscalers are scaling server rack power architectures to accommodate megawatt-to-gigawatt AI clusters by 2030, driving demand for multi-phase controllers and high-voltage power devices.
Automotive 800V Powertrain and Zonal Architecture Transition
positive
Global automotive OEMs are transitioning electric vehicles to 800V architectures to enable faster charging and higher inverter efficiency, expanding silicon carbide module content per vehicle.
Chinese Domestic Semiconductor Substrate Expansion
negative
Subsidized Chinese investments in 150mm and 200mm SiC crystal growth and wafer slicing threaten merchant substrate pricing and create localized competition in China, where ON generated $1,634.8M of FY2025 revenue.
Positioning
ON Semiconductor is positioned as a specialized power and sensing provider transitioning to a Fab-Liter manufacturing footprint. By combining internal proprietary packaging with flexible external wafer sourcing, the company optimizes fixed-cost absorption while focusing capital on high-margin automotive and AI data center solutions.
Action
Why
$46.40
Initiate fundamental re-evaluation
Intrinsic Fair value midpoint. Eliminates the current market premium but does not yet provide an adequate margin of safety.
$37.12
Consider initial speculative tranche
Provides a 15% to 20% discount to intrinsic Fair value, conditioned on non-GAAP gross margins sustaining above 40.0%.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($9.52) plus discounted terminal value ($20.32) minus signed net debt per current share ($1.11) equals the $28.73 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
