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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
POOL — frequently asked questions
Is Pool Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-18, POOL trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 173 versus our fair value of USD 167; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 195. That implies roughly 3.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-18, gives POOL a fair value of USD 167 and a potential value of USD 195. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Pool Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy POOL now?
Our latest published rating for POOL, analyzed 2026-10-18, is Hold. Pool Corporation trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD 173 versus fair value of USD 167; potential value is USD 195. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for POOL?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-18 documents Pool Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is POOL's rating?
Our latest published rating for POOL, analyzed 2026-10-18, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 167, the potential value of USD 195, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 173).
An easing of mortgage interest rates and reactivation of residential housing turnover would unlock deferred demand for new pool installations and high-ticket remodels, driving operating leverage across POOL's distribution sales centers to expand operating margins.
Main risk
Sunbelt residential pool construction permits contracting sharply year-over-year alongside chemical price deflation.
Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at $172.57 (as of 2026-10-16), representing -3.3% upside to Fair value of $166.85, supporting a Hold rating amid balanced recurring maintenance stability and discretionary construction headwinds.4
Our intrinsic valuation of Pool Corporation yields a Fair value of $166.85 with Potential value of $194.51. At $172.57, the stock trades at -3.3% to Fair value. This balanced valuation aligns with our Hold recommendation, indicating that while downside is cushioned by durable maintenance cash flows, the market reflects near-term operating expectations.
POOL's operational resilience is anchored in the non-discretionary maintenance requirements of the North American swimming pool base. Routine water chemistry, sanitization, pump replacements, and seasonal filtration maintenance comprise roughly 60% of total sales, ensuring steady branch revenues across 455 distribution centers regardless of broader economic volatility. This recurring stream generated $309,516,000 in free cash flow during FY2025, supporting steady dividends and open-market share buybacks.5,6,7
Conversely, the remaining revenue derived from new pool construction and major backyard remodeling remains constrained by elevated mortgage interest rates and depressed existing home turnover. While H1 2026 sales increased to $2,960,952,000, gross margin contracted due to inbound freight and product mix. With valuation multiples reflecting peer premiums, the stock offers limited near-term valuation upside.3,5,7
Resilient Installed Base Cash Generation
Over 60% of POOL's revenue base is tied to non-discretionary maintenance, chemical sanitization, and equipment repair required to maintain existing pools, generating steady baseline cash flow regardless of macro housing cycles.7
Unrivaled Wholesale Distribution Scale
An unmatched footprint of 455 distribution centers stocking over 200,000 SKUs provides local fulfillment proximity for 125,000 professional contractors, creating scale efficiencies that competitors cannot economically replicate.5
An asset-light distribution model requiring low capital expenditure ($56,334,000 in FY2025) allows POOL to consistently return excess cash through dividends ($184,916,000) and share repurchases ($346,286,000).
House recommendation
Hold. At $172.57, POOL trades in line with Fair value of $166.85, where durable maintenance demand cushions downside but subdued discretionary housing activity limits near-term upside.
Company overview
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products. As of June 30, 2026, the company operated 455 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia, distributing more than 200,000 brand-name and private-label products to approximately 125,000 professional wholesale customers.
POOL serves swimming pool builders, independent service and maintenance technicians, and specialty retail stores. In FY2025, consolidated net sales were $5,289,396,000, with the United States market contributing $4,900,465,000 (92.65% of net sales) and international operations accounting for $388,931,000 (7.35%).
Under an acute stress test combining a complete freeze in new residential pool construction with deflationary chemical pricing and inbound freight headwinds, POOL's top-line revenue would contract toward $5.0B-$5.1B, operating margins would compress from 10.97% to 8.0%, and annual diluted EPS would drop toward $8.50-$9.00. While non-discretionary recurring maintenance demand generates over $200M in cash flow to protect liquidity and service $1,535,031,000 in total debt, a multiple de-rating toward peer wholesale building distributor levels of 12.8x-14.6x would severely impair equity valuation.
Pool Corporation earns a Narrow economic moat rating rooted in scale advantages across its wholesale distribution network and the non-discretionary recurring maintenance demand generated by an expanding installed swimming pool base. With 455 sales centers worldwide as of June 30, 2026, POOL operates as the primary supply conduit between fragmented equipment manufacturers and approximately 125,000 professional pool builders and independent maintenance contractors.
The distribution footprint enables same-day product pickup and dense regional delivery for more than 200,000 SKUs, providing a service standard that sub-scale regional distributors cannot economically duplicate. Because commercial and residential pools require continuous sanitization and filtration to prevent algae formation and structural degradation, roughly 60% of POOL's revenue base is non-discretionary, buffering operating profit even as higher interest rates suppress new in-ground construction permits.
While manufacturing peers like Snap-on (25.40% operating margin) command higher pricing power from proprietary patents, POOL achieves superior capital turnover with minimal capital expenditures ($56,334,000 in FY2025). This capital-light distribution model generated an 18.5% on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital in FY2025, exceeding its 8.26% and sustaining durable competitive advantages.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($166.85). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $387.8M after modeled reinvestment of $68.4M, with terminal value at 79.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Upgrade the rating; Examine whether operating margin expansion is driven by sustainable operating leverage and whether Sunbelt new pool permits show consecutive quarterly growth before considering an increased allocation.
Trigger: Quarterly net sales exceeding consensus expectations and operating margin expanding year-over-year.
A decisive earnings beat driven by volume acceleration in building materials and discretionary equipment upgrades would indicate an inflection in housing turnover and justify modeling an accelerated top-line path.
In-line
Maintain Hold; Maintain existing portfolio allocation without deploying fresh capital; verify that non-discretionary maintenance demand continues to generate steady cash conversion.
Trigger: Quarterly net sales and diluted EPS meeting consensus expectations with gross margin remaining stable.
Industry capital-intensity, capacity, and lead-time benchmarks are unavailable in current data, so the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Following peak demand in FY2021-FY2022, POOL's revenue contracted from $6.18B to $5.29B in FY2025, stabilizing in H1 2026 with 4% growth to $2.96B.5,7
Bull cycle
A decline in mortgage interest rates stimulates existing home sales and unlocks homeowner equity, accelerating in-ground pool construction permits and deferred high-margin equipment modernizations.
Bear cycle
A prolonged freeze in residential housing turnover caused by persistent mortgage rate lock-in and elevated consumer borrowing costs extends the slump in new pool permits, leading to distributor discounting and branch fixed-cost de-leverage.
Secular trends
§11 Position management
Sizing
2-3%
A neutral allocation of 2-3% of portfolio equity reflects balanced risk/reward at $172.57. High cash conversion and installed base durability prevent downside deterioration, but lack of valuation discount warrants capital preservation over aggressive positioning.4
Risk
Maintain disciplined portfolio exposure to POOL. Enforce strict risk discipline against sudden gross margin deterioration. Avoid averaging down into declining share prices without an expanded valuation discount.
Entry tranches
Level
Action
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Hold
With shares trading near $166.85 relative to $172.57, POOL lacks an adequate valuation buffer given its forward earnings multiple. Value-oriented investors should await a meaningful price discount before accumulating.4
Income / Dividend Investor
Hold
POOL's dividend payout is safe and well-covered by free cash flow ($309.52M in FY2025 vs $184.92M paid), but the moderate yield warrants holding existing shares rather than initiating an income position.6,7
Growth / Momentum Investor
Hold
Near-term EPS expansion is constrained to low-single digits ($10.85 in FY2025 to $11.00 in FY2026). Growth investors should await confirmed inflection in Sunbelt housing permits before building exposure.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Hold
We initiate coverage on Pool Corporation (POOL) with a Hold rating and a Fair value of $166.85. At $172.57 (as of 2026-10-16), the stock trades at -3.3% to Fair value. While recurring maintenance cash flows protect downside, sluggish discretionary pool construction limits near-term capital appreciation.4
Investors holding POOL should maintain current positions while awaiting either a meaningful valuation pullback or clear inflection in new pool construction permits before deploying fresh capital.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
High interest rates persist, severely suppressing new pool installations and discretionary upgrades. Sub-scale price competition and input cost deflation compress gross margins, limiting EPS growth and causing valuation multiples to contract toward lower-growth distributor peers.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe gross margin compression from chemical price deflation, elevated inbound freight costs, and contractor price resistance driving operating margin down by 300 bps.
Prolonged housing turnover freeze and discretionary spending pullback causing revenue growth to lag baseline by 5 percentage points over the 5-year forecast horizon.
POOL's revenue contracted from $6.18B in FY2022 to $5.29B in FY2025. Analyst revenue consensus for FY2027 was revised down to $5.62B. If Sunbelt pool construction permits decline sharply, top-line growth stalls 5pp below the modeled 3.5%-4.5% path.1,7
FV impact
-6.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Multiple de-rating toward lower-margin wholesale distributor benchmarks as earnings growth stalls, compressing terminal P/E from 16.0x to 12.8x (-20%).
Peer mature building and equipment manufacturers trade below 15x forward earnings, with AOS at 14.60x and SWK at 14.68x. If POOL's EPS growth stalls near 2-3%, its premium multiple of 17.09x de-rates by 20% to 12.8x.3,4
FV impact
-6.4%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
POOL generated an estimated 18.5% return on invested capital in FY2025 on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital. This comfortably exceeds the company's computed weighted average cost of capital of 8.26% and moderate cost of equity of 9.33%, proving substantial economic value creation across housing cycles.2,6
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Wholesale distribution network scale and branch density — Operating 455 sales centers stocking over 200,000 products serves roughly 125,000 wholesale customers, delivering $580,204,000 in operating income in FY2025 and an 11.0% operating margin without manufacturing capital expenditure exposure.Wide
02Installed pool base and contractor workflow switching friction — Recurring pool maintenance, water sanitization, and equipment repair represent non-discretionary expenditures across an expanding base of installed pools, supporting $309,516,000 in FY2025 free cash flow and resilient branch traffic through housing construction troughs.Moderate
E-commerce platforms and manufacturer direct-to-contractor distribution channels attempting to bypass wholesale distributors.
medium
3 to 5 years
Hazardous material transport regulations on sanitizing chemicals, bulky freight costs, and professional contractor demand for immediate morning job-site pickup protect physical sales centers from pure digital disintermediation.5
Commoditization and price deflation in core water treatment chemicals such as trichlor compressing gross margins.
low
12 to 18 months
Vendor diversification, expansion of proprietary private-label chemical formulations, and disciplined branch inventory turns protect dollar gross profits, keeping gross margin at 29.7% in Q2 2026.5
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
The modal expected path where non-discretionary maintenance demand provides a stable baseline, while new pool construction recovers gradually alongside housing turnover. Ongoing share buybacks and steady dividend growth support mid-single-digit EPS expansion through FY2030.
Mortgage interest rates decline, releasing pent-up demand for new residential pool construction and major backyard renovations. Accelerated contractor adoption of premium variable-speed equipment and private-label water treatment expands branch gross margins, driving robust EPS expansion by FY2030.
In-line results confirm the resilience of maintenance revenue but demonstrate that high mortgage rates continue to suppress discretionary pool additions, keeping the risk/reward profile balanced around current market prices.
Miss
Downgrade the rating; Reduce position sizing; re-evaluate whether chemical price deflation or contractor margin compression is permanently impairing distribution returns.
Trigger: Quarterly gross margin compressing significantly or net sales contracting year-over-year.
A material quarterly earnings miss driven by gross margin erosion and volume contraction would signal competitive price erosion, requiring downward revisions to terminal operating margins and valuation multiples.
High earnings quality supported by disciplined cash flow conversion. FY2025 GAAP net income of $406,404,000 converted into $365,850,000 of operating cash flow and $309,516,000 of free cash flow. Second quarter 2026 results demonstrated clean reporting with transparent reconciliation of $8,262,000 ($0.21 per share) in pre-tax CEO transition costs.5,6,7
Estimate momentum
Sell-side consensus estimate revisions have flattened post-Q2 2026 results. FY2026 EPS consensus was slightly adjusted from $11.00 to $11.00 while FY2026 revenue consensus edged from $5.44B to $5.44B. For FY2027, EPS consensus moderated from $11.81 to $11.76 alongside revenue consensus of $5.62B, reflecting realistic assumptions of gradual multi-year housing recovery.1
The company's distribution model requires minimal maintenance capital expenditures, averaging approximately 1.0% of revenue ($56,334,000 in FY2025). This generated $309,516,000 in free cash flow in FY2025. Working capital shows pronounced seasonality; in the first half of 2026, product inventories peaked at $1,378,695,000 to support peak spring/summer contractor stocking, resulting in minor operating cash usage of $748,000, before unwinding into strong cash inflows in Q3 and Q4.5,6,7
POOL exhibits disciplined capital allocation focused on returning excess cash to shareholders while reinvesting modestly in network expansion. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $365,850,000 funded $56,334,000 in capital expenditures, $184,916,000 in cash dividends, and $346,286,000 in common stock repurchases. Capital returns exceeded net income of $406,404,000, financed by operating cash generation and existing liquidity. Total debt stood at $1,535,031,000, with FY2025 interest expense of $46,770,000 covered 12.4x by operating income of $580,204,000.
POOL generated an estimated 18.5% ROIC on $2,384,682,000 of invested capital in FY2025. While down from pandemic peaks (15.7%-16.6% operating margins in FY2021-FY2022), it remains higher than the pre-2020 historical range of 9.95% to 10.67%, demonstrating stable structural returns on capital.
ROIC of ~18.5% exceeds computed WACC of 8.26% and moderate cost of equity of 9.33% by over 900 basis points, confirming continued economic profit creation across the 455 branch network.
Income statement breakdownHow business scale converts into reported profit.Jun 30, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Revenue$1.8BCost of revenue−$1.3BGross profit$540.8MOperating expenses−$273.1MOperating income$267.7MNon-operating items and tax−$79.6MNet income$188.1M
Financial history data
Revenue
$1,822,938,000
Cost of revenue
$1,282,176,000
Gross profit
$540,762,000
Operating expenses
$273,083,000
Operating income
$267,679,000
Non-operating items and tax
-$79,590,000
Net income
$188,089,000
Balance sheet snapshotHow reported assets are held and financed at the selected period.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Assets held asFinanced by
Total assets$3.6BCash$105MCurrent assets$2BTotal liabilities$2.4BCurrent liabilities$880.3MShareholders’ equity$1.2B
Balance sheet breakdown data
Total assets
$3,626,126,000
Cash
$104,963,000
Current assets
$1,969,864,000
Total liabilities
$2,440,897,000
Current liabilities
$880,285,000
Shareholders’ equity
$1,185,229,000
Cash-flow statement breakdownHow cash moved through operating, investing, and financing activities in FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Operating cash reconciliation
Net income$406.4MDepreciation and amortization+$51.6MStock-based compensation+$22.7MOther operating adjustments−$114.9MOperating cash flow$365.9M
Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at 17.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.3x compares with a peer median of 12.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Stanley Black & Decker Inc., A. O. Smith Corporation, IDEX Corporation and Snap-on Incorporated, as of 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-18.
Trend
Impact
Note
Sunbelt demographic migration and residential outdoor living expansion
positive
Sustained population in-migration to warm-weather southern and western US states permanently expands the installed base of residential in-ground pools, driving recurring lifetime maintenance demand.
Automation, energy efficiency, and eco-friendly pool technology adoption
positive
Transition toward connected smart pools, energy-efficient variable-speed filtration pumps, and eco-friendly automated sanitizers increases the dollar value of equipment replacements and professional service calls.
Mortgage rate lock-in and subdued existing home turnover
negative
Elevated residential mortgage rates disincentivize homeowner relocations and dampen home equity loan issuance, delaying large-ticket discretionary pool installations and structural remodels.
Positioning
POOL maintains strong market positioning as the dominant distributor across primary US Sunbelt migration corridors. With 92.65% of net sales generated in the United States ($4,900,465,000 in FY2025), the company's financial results are insulated from foreign trade and currency disputes, while non-US operations ($388,931,000 in FY2025) offer incremental growth in European leisure markets.8
Why
Substantial discount to $166.85
Initiate partial position or accumulate selectively
Represents an approximate 15% discount to fair value ($166.85), offering an attractive entry point where maintenance cash flows provide significant downside protection.
Extended discount to $166.85
Aggressive accumulation
Exit tranches
Level
Action
$194.50 (upper boundary of synthesized fair value range)
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($47.95) plus discounted terminal value ($183) minus signed net debt per current share ($39.35) equals the $192 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
